Market Outlook

See the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.

Summary

Beef/Cattle: Projections for 2022 and 2023 beef production are adjusted marginally higher from last month. Based on recent cattle slaughter data and stronger anticipated culling of beef cows in late 2022, the outlook for 2022 production is only fractionally higher than last month. The beef production forecast in 2023 is raised as more calves are expected to be placed in feedlots in second-half 2022, raising projected marketings in 2023. The cattle price forecast for late 2022 is adjusted higher, mainly on current price strength. Calf prices are raised for 2022 and early 2023 as expected placements in feedlots reach deeper into tight supplies outside feedlots. Record exports in July were in line with expectations, and projections are unchanged from last month. However, import projections are lowered on third-quarter data and expectations of slower imports in late 2022.

Less Beef To Offset Increases in Other Meats in 2023

In 2023, U.S. consumers can anticipate greater availability of pork, broiler meat, and turkey, but less beef is expected. The amount used by the domestic market on a per person basis, including in grocery stores and restaurants, is defined as per capita disappearance. USDA calculates per capita meat disappearance—a proxy measure of consumption—as a residual measure of supply (the sum of production, beginning stocks, and imports minus the sum of exports and ending stocks) divided by the total U.S. population. Although per capita disappearance factors in trade, it largely reflects domestic supplies, and it does not account for food waste or use such as pet food.
Total poultry disappearance is projected to be 115.3 pounds per capita, up 1.2 percent in the 11th consecutive year of record broiler production and following the recovery of turkey production from the impact of avian influenza. Red meat disappearance is forecast at 109.5 pounds per capita, down 1.6 percent, as lower beef supplies offset an increase in projected pork production.
The figure below shows the retail weight per capita disappearance for beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey from 2010 to 2021, with forecast values for 2022 and 2023. Beef per capita for 2023 is expected to decline by almost 3 pounds, while pork is expected to climb about 1 pound per person. Disappearance of broiler meat is projected to increase about half a pound, a slower pace than in previous years, and turkey will rise over 1 pound, the first increase in 7 years.

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