Forecasting Feed Grain Prices in a Changing Environment

Overview

Structural change has been occurring throughout the feed grains sector and has affected commodity markets and price forecasting relationships. Structural changes that have affected feed grains stem from government policy such as the 1996 Farm Act, international trade agreements such as NAFTA, and changing consumer preferences. A statistical test of structural change is provided along with price forecasting models for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. The models provide a framework to forecast season-average, farm-level prices and gauge the consistency of supply, demand, and price forecasts.