Cotton and Wool Outlook No. (CWS-18I-01) 24 pp

September 2018

Forecasting the U.S. Season-Average Farm Price of Upland Cotton: Derivation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model

A forward-looking futures price-based model is developed that assists in forecasting upland cotton’s season-average price (SAP) received by farmers. The SAP impacts resources devoted to cotton production, marketing, and manufacturing, and forecasts inform these decisions. A series of models are developed to generate alternative monthly SAP forecasts.

Keywords: upland cotton, season-average farm price forecasts, futures-adjusted forecast model, futures prices, basis, marketing weights

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