Oil Crops Outlook No. (OCS-04D01) 10 pp

April 2004

How Does Structural Change in the Global Soybean Market Affect the U.S. Price?

South American soybean production, combined with the U.S. soybean stocks-to-use ratio, provides a strong basis for forecasting U.S. soybean prices. South American soybean production accounts for much of the global structural change that has altered the relationships among U.S. soybean production, use, stocks, and price. The article estimates that a 1-percent increase in South American soybean production decreases U.S. soybean prices by about one-quarter percent.

Keywords: Soybeans, price forecasts, structural change, South America

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