Publications

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  • Since 2009, Restaurant Prices Have Generally Risen Faster Than Grocery Store Prices

    Amber Waves, August 07, 2017

    Between 2009 and 2016, restaurant prices grew at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent, while grocery store food prices rose by an average of 1.4 percent per year.

  • Consumers Paid Less for Grocery Store Foods in 2016 Than in 2015

    Amber Waves, March 06, 2017

    In 2016, grocery store (food-at-home) prices decreased by 1.3 percent, the first time in nearly 50 years that at-home food prices were lower than those in the year before.

  • Processing and Marketing Blunt the Impact of Volatile Farm Prices on Retail Dairy Prices

    Amber Waves, August 01, 2016

    Despite volatile farm-level milk prices over the last decade, fluctuations in retail prices for whole milk and Cheddar cheese have been comparatively moderate, with farm prices and retail prices tracking more closely for whole milk than for Cheddar cheese.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2015

    FTS-360, September 30, 2015

    The Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report analyzes supply-and-demand conditions in the U.S. fruit and tree nuts markets and provides projections on market conditions for 2015 apple, pear, cranberry, grape and peach crops as well as 2014/15 citrus crops, both fresh and processed markets. It includes an additional section on U.S. Food Safety Modernization Act.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: June 2015

    FTS-359, June 30, 2015

    Peach, cherry, and prune production forecast down from last season. The decline in peach output has only put little upward pressure on prices. Shipments of melons are up through June.

  • How USDA Forecasts Retail Food Price Inflation

    TB-1940, May 27, 2015

    In recent years, ERS has used a revised methodology for forecasting food price inflation, which captures price impacts at various stages of the food supply system and results in improved precision of the forecasts.

  • Prevalence of U.S. Food Insecurity Is Related to Changes in Unemployment, Inflation, and the Price of Food

    ERR-167, June 20, 2014

    The association of food insecurity with household characteristics and national economic conditions over 2001-12 provides insight into why food insecurity remained at about the same level in 2012 as shortly after the recession.

  • Methodology for the Quarterly Food-Away-from-Home Prices Data

    TB-1938, May 21, 2014

    ERS's new Quarterly Food-Away-from-Home Prices (QFAFHP) data show substantial variation in prices across U.S. regions and food establishment types, with implications for analyses of food purchasing behavior and dietary outcomes.

  • Food Price Transmissions From Farm to Retail

    Amber Waves, May 05, 2014

    ERS forecasts price changes for three stages of the food chain: farm commodities, wholesale commodities, and retail foods. Generally, prices for the three types of goods move in the same direction, with smaller price changes for each successive stage.

  • Food Prices—Taking the Long-Term View

    Amber Waves, April 07, 2014

    U.S. food price inflation has been falling, on average, over the past several decades. Since 2010, food prices have risen by an average of 2.1 percent a year—in sharp contrast with the 1970s when the all food Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by an average of 8.1 percent per year.

  • Price Inflation for Food Outpacing Many Other Spending Categories

    Amber Waves, August 05, 2013

    Food prices have been rising in recent years, and food price inflation has easily outpaced price inflation for most other major consumer spending categories. Between 2006 and 2012, only prices for transportation, which includes a number of energy price measures, and medical care have risen faster than food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022

    OCE-131, February 11, 2013

    USDA's longrun projections for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: December 2012

    FTS-354, December 18, 2012

    Total citrus production forecast to remain stable in 2012/13.

  • Vegetables and Pulses Outlook; December 2012

    VGS-352, December 18, 2012

    The 2012 U.S. dry bean crop is expected to reach 31.8 million cwt, an increase of almost 60 percent from low production levels of 2011.

  • Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: September 2012

    VGS-351, September 27, 2012

    Use of chickpeas (garbanzo beans) has increased in the United States as consumption of food such as humus expands. I n 2012, a record 196,900 acres were planted with Washington, Idaho, and California leading producers in the previous year.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2012

    FTS-353, September 27, 2012

    Adverse weather is behind the forecast smaller U.S. apple, pear, and grape crops in 2012.

  • The Demand for Disaggregated Food-Away-From-Home and Food-at-Home Products in the United States

    ERR-139, August 23, 2012

    Food away from home (FAFH) comprises nearly half of all U.S. consumer food expenditures. Hence, policies designed to influence nutritional outcomes would be incomplete if they did not address the role of FAFH. However, because of data limitations, most studies of the response of food demand to policy changes have ignored the role of FAFH, and those studies that have included FAFH have treated it as a single good. We, therefore, estimate demand for 43 disaggregated FAFH and food-at-home (FAH) products, using a 2-stage budgeting framework. We find that the demands for disaggregated FAFH products differ in price responsiveness and tend to be more sensitive to changes in food spending patterns than FAH products. Many foods are found to have statistically significant substitution and complementary relationships within and among food groups.

  • Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: June 2012

    VGS-350, June 28, 2012

    Prices at the point of first sale remain low for most fresh-market vegetables and consumer prices also fell in the first 5 months of 2012. Volumes are strong as mild winter and early spring temperatures allowed early planting in many areas. Per capita use of fresh-market vegetables fell less than 1 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year.

  • Price Trends Are Similar for Fruits, Vegetables, and Snack Foods

    ERR-55, March 12, 2008

    Evidence suggest that a wide class of unprepared fresh fruits and vegetables-those that have not been combined with labor-saving attributes-display declining prices along with prices of commonly consumed dessert and snack foods

  • How Low-Income Households Allocate Their Food Budget Relative to the Cost of the Thrifty Food Plan

    ERR-20, August 25, 2006

    Low-income households that participate in the Food Stamp Program can achieve a healthy diet if they use the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) as a guide for their food shopping. Most studies measuring the degree to which low-income households follow the TFP have compared total household food expenditures-for food at home as well as food away from home-to the TFP. The present study looked at total expenditures, but the emphasis is on how low-income households allocate their budget relative to the TFP for food at home. To determine whether some types of households are more likely than others to budget their food purchases in accordance with TFP benchmarks, and to identify households that might benefit most from nutrition education programs, the study compared actual and TFP expenditures for four household categories.