ERS Charts of Note

Subscribe to our Charts of Note series, which highlights economic research and analysis on agriculture, food, the environment, and rural America. Each week, this series highlights charts of interest from current and past ERS research.

At the end of the year, users can look forward to our Editors’ Picks of the Best of Charts of Note.

Reset

2022 Census of Agriculture: U.S. tree farms cut more than 14.5 million Christmas trees in 2022

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Christmas trees are grown commercially on farms in all 50 States on about 16,000 U.S. tree farms. Data from the Census of Agriculture show that in 2022, the United States cut more than 14.5 million Christmas trees. Although Christmas tree farms span the country, more than half the trees cut in 2022 were grown in two States, Oregon and North Carolina, where growing conditions favor production of the most popular species of Christmas trees, including Noble, Douglas, and Fraser firs. Michigan and Washington are also notable Christmas tree-growing States, as are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. With prolonged drought affecting many of these production regions, about 550,000 fewer trees were cut in 2022 than during the previous agricultural census in 2017. With higher value of sales in 2022, however, U.S. Christmas tree growers sold $553 million in cut Christmas trees compared with $377 million in 2017. The United States also imported more than 3 million Christmas trees in 2022. This chart was drawn from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s 2022 Census of Agriculture. For more on holiday plant imports, see this USDA, Economic Research Service Chart of Note.

Cuba’s declining agricultural production and consumption hit staple commodities

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Since 2019, the Cuban economy has struggled to export enough goods and services to finance imports. This has made it difficult for Cuba to afford the importation of not only agricultural commodities like rice, corn, and wheat, but also agricultural inputs that would help to bolster domestic crop production, such as fertilizers, herbicides, and farm machinery. Moreover, a succession of tropical storms and other adverse weather conditions have presented additional challenges to Cuba’s farmers. The impact of these conditions is apparent in Cuba’s declining staple crop production, which has contributed to lower consumption of these commodities. Production of both rice and corn in Cuba has trended downward since marketing year 2016/17 according to USDA estimates, while imports, largely from South America and East Asia, have tempered the accompanying reduction in consumption. Cuba relies almost entirely on imports for the wheat used to make flour and bread, and these imports—along with consumption—have declined over the past decade, as reflected in decreased rations of bread from the Cuban Government. In contrast to declining staple crop consumption, chicken consumption in Cuba has trended modestly higher, largely because of increased poultry imports, in part from the United States. In 2023, chicken meat accounted for about 82 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba. This chart also appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report, Cuba’s Deteriorating Food Security and Its Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports.

Ten commodities accounted for most of the jobs supported by U.S. agricultural exports in 2022

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Labor is essential to the production, processing, marketing, and transportation of products from farm to port. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) annually measures this labor using an agricultural trade multiplier that estimates the employment and output effects of trade in farm and food products on the U.S. economy. In 2022, U.S. agricultural exports including biodiesel were valued at $197.4 billion and supported 1.25 million full-time jobs. On average, every $1 billion of exported U.S. agricultural products supported 6,338 jobs. Ten agricultural commodity exports supported 745,200 of the 1.25 million jobs—just under 60 percent. Soybean and corn exports alone supported more than 364,000 jobs, and bovine, chicken, and swine meat exports supported about 185,000 jobs. This chart is drawn from the ERS Agricultural Trade Multipliers, released May 2024.

Rising per capita consumption drives food demand growth rates in all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Global food demand is projected to increase 2.8 percent annually over the next 10 years, according to the latest International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). The region with the highest projected growth in demand is Sub-Saharan Africa at 3.9 percent per year. In comparison, the Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to have the slowest food demand growth of IFSA regions at 1.8 percent per year. Using food price, income, and population projections, IFSA estimates food demand in 83 low- and middle-income countries. In those 83 countries, demand is projected to grow from 800.2 million metric tons in 2024 to 1,050.9 million metric tons in 2034. Growth in food demand can be caused by two factors—increasing per capita food consumption and population growth. In all regions except for Sub-Saharan Africa, growth in total food demand is driven mainly by per capita food consumption rather than population growth. For the Former Soviet Union region, 95 percent of the overall food demand growth in the next 10 years is attributable to growth in per capita food consumption based on projections for significant growth in per capita income. In addition to annual food demand growth in Sub-Saharan Africa rising the fastest over the next 10 years, 66 percent of the growth rate in food demand in the region is due to population growth. With per capita incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to only rise 1.5 percent annually by 2034, the region’s share of the food-insecure population is projected to increase. This chart appears in the ERS report, International Food Security Assessment, 2024-34, released August 2024. See also this related Chart of Note, Despite global improvements in food insecurity, progress for Sub-Saharan Africa lags.

2022 Census of Agriculture: Puerto Rico farms with crop sales show rebound following 2017 hurricanes

Thursday, October 10, 2024

The number of farms in Puerto Rico growing crops and the sales value of those crops increased between 2018 and 2022, according to data from the 2022 Census of Agriculture. The previous Census captured the effects of major destruction to Puerto Rico’s agricultural sector caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria in late 2017. The hurricanes’ impact was spread across all crops, with the number of farms falling 59 percent from 9,367 farms in 2012 to 3,877 farms in 2018. The damage accelerated the trend of consolidation of crop land from smaller farms to fewer, larger farms. Initially, the damage led to a transition away from fruit- and coffee-producing trees, which take time to bring to productive maturity, and to grain and other field crops, which are quicker to generate revenue. While other crop sales declined by 36 percent from 2012 to 2018, grains and field crops sales increased nearly eightfold and retained that level of sales from 2018 into 2022. More recently, spurred by rising global prices, coffee sales grew by 280 percent, from $4.8 million to $18.1 million between 2018 and 2022. Fruit and coconut sales grew by nearly 168 percent, while banana and plantain sales rose by 58 percent. Sales for other crops (pineapples, root crops or tubers, and grasses) increased by 62 percent in 2022. Total crop sales for 2022, which were partly driven by higher prices, surpassed 2012, growing by 46 percent from 2018 to 2022 to $353 million. For more details on the hurricanes’ effect on Puerto Rico’s agricultural sector, see the USDA, Economic Research Service report, Puerto Rico’s Agricultural Economy in the Aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

U.S. demand for coffee stimulates imports from Latin America

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Coffee is the fifth-largest bulk export commodity by value, accounting for about 7 percent of total global bulk agricultural exports, per Trade Data Monitor. The United States is the world’s second leading importer of coffee (both Arabica and Robusta varieties). In 2023, about 80 percent of U.S. unroasted coffee imports came from Latin America (valued at $4.8 billion), principally from Brazil (35 percent) and Colombia (27 percent). Historically, more than 92 percent of U.S. coffee imports have been of the less acidic, higher quality Arabica variety, which commands a premium relative to Robusta coffee. Both Brazil and Colombia are major global producers of Arabica-variety coffee beans, though import shares have declined in recent years. In 2023, lower fertilizer use in Colombia and a drought in Brazil adversely affected coffee production in those countries, placing upward pressure on prices. The decline in unroasted coffee’s share of U.S. imports from Latin America has been partially offset by increased imports of roasted and freeze-dried coffee. During the 2003–23 period, U.S. import volumes of unroasted coffee from Latin America grew 1.5 percent annually. More information may be found in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Changes in U.S. Agricultural Imports from Latin America and the Caribbean.

Agriculture made up 6 percent of total U.S. import value in FY 2023

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

The bulk of U.S. imports fall into categories of consumer goods, capital goods, and industrial supplies. However, agricultural products account for an increasing share of total U.S. imports. From fiscal years (FY) 2004 to 2023, the value of U.S. imports of agricultural products rose an average 3.7 percent annually, adjusting for inflation, exceeding the overall rate of increase for total U.S. imports. Led by increases in processed food and beverages, horticultural products, and livestock products, agricultural imports are forecast to reach $204 billion in FY 2024 and a record $212 billion in FY 2025. Moreover, in 2023, agricultural imports accounted for 6.3 percent of the total value, up from 4.3 percent in 2004. U.S. consumers’ growing appetites for high-valued imported goods such as fresh fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and processed grain products have helped drive the rapid expansion of agricultural imports. Imported goods often include products that can’t easily be sourced in the United States, such as tropical products, off-season produce, or protected designated-origin products like Parmigiano Reggiano and Champagne. This chart is drawn from the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2024 published by USDA’s Economic Research Service.

Soybeans and wheat led U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia in 2023

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Southeast Asia is the third largest regional market for U.S. agricultural exports, behind North America and East Asia. In 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia totaled about $12.9 billion, with soybean products, wheat, cotton, and distillers’ grains making up more than half. Soybeans and their products are the largest commodity group the United States exports to Southeast Asia. In 2023, U.S. soybeans and soybean meal, flour, oil, and seed exports totaled $3.8 billion. Wheat was the second largest U.S. agricultural export to Southeast Asia in 2023 at $1.3 billion. Cotton and distillers’ dried grains (referred to as DDGS) were the third and fourth largest exports, with 2023 exports valued at $1.1 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively. The value of U.S. skim milk powder exports to the region fell to $0.7 billion in 2023 after rising from $0.4 billion in 2018 to $1.1 billion in 2022, the fastest growing U.S. agricultural export to Southeast Asia at that time. U.S. exports of miscellaneous food preparations and poultry were valued at $0.5 billion and $0.3 billion in 2023. Lastly, U.S. flours, meals, and pellets of meat and meat offal exports were valued at $0.3 billion. Numerous other products, including animal feed preparations, frozen potatoes, beef, nuts, and fruits, accounted for $4.0 billion worth of exports. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report U.S. Agricultural Exports in Southeast Asia, published in August 2024, and has been updated with recent data.

Despite global improvements in food insecurity, progress for Sub-Saharan Africa lags

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

In 2024, an estimated 824.6 million people, equivalent to 19.0 percent of the population included in the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA), are projected to be unable to access the 2,100 calories per day considered necessary for a healthy and active lifestyle. This represents a decrease of 313 million people from the 2023 estimate for the 83 low- and middle-income countries covered in the food security assessment. However, food insecurity is projected to remain elevated in many countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it is estimated to affect 29.3 percent of the region’s population. In 2024, average annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for income, is estimated at $2,483 in IFSA countries. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa it is estimated to be $1,387, the lowest of the five IFSA regions. Although food prices are projected to ease globally in 2024, domestic prices remain high in many Sub-Saharan African countries, making it difficult for consumers to access sufficient calories. While most countries will see a decrease in staple grain prices, countries relying heavily on imported rice (like many in West Africa) are projected to experience price increases following export restrictions implemented by India in July 2023. In addition to economic factors, military conflict and political instability are associated with high food insecurity rates in the region. This chart appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report International Food Security Assessment, 2024-34, released in August 2024.

United States and Brazil compete as top global cotton exporter

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

The United States has been the leading raw cotton exporter to the world virtually every year for more than 100 years. Leading export nation status was relinquished by the United States just a few times over the last century, most recently to Uzbekistan in the 1992/93 marketing year (August–July). U.S.-grown cotton was once principally used in domestic mills, but raw cotton exports became the dominant use in the early 2000s. Mills in other countries—particularly China—expanded textile and apparel product exports following developed countries’ phaseout of import quotas. Most U.S.-grown cotton is now destined for foreign mills and subject to increased competition from other cotton-producing countries. In recent years, Brazil has gradually become a major cotton export competitor, particularly as domestic cotton production expanded to the Center-West region of the country. On favorable conditions, Brazil’s 2023/24 cotton crop is estimated at a record 14.6 million bales, while U.S. production decreased because of drought in the Southwest. USDA’s June 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast Brazil’s 2023/24 cotton exports at 12.4 million bales, surpassing U.S. exports to become the largest global exporter. For 2024/25, the United States is projected to reclaim the role as top cotton exporter, as U.S. production is projected to rebound. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Cotton and Wool Outlook: June 2024.

Growing demand for poultry fuels increasing global imports

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Globally, poultry is the most imported livestock commodity by volume. Rising incomes, growing populations, and increasing urbanization all contribute to increasing poultry consumption, especially in markets where local production is often unable to keep pace with accelerating demand. Historically, Asia has been the largest importer of chicken meat by volume. In 2022, the region imported more than 3.4 million metric tons. The Middle East was the second largest importer of chicken meat in 2022, with imports of nearly 2.0 million metric tons, followed by Europe with 1.7 million metric tons. Over the past two decades, however, Africa has become an increasingly important market for global poultry trade. Africa’s poultry imports grew by more than 850 percent from just under 0.2 million metric tons in 1999 to more than 1.5 million metric tons in 2022. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report, Evaluating the Effects of Nontariff Measures on Poultry Trade, May 2024.

Exports expand market for U.S. food and agricultural goods

Monday, May 20, 2024

Export markets are an important sales outlet for U.S. food and agricultural production. Since 2008, an average of 20 percent of the value of all U.S. agricultural output has been shipped to destinations in other countries. The export market is a growing one for U.S. non-manufactured products, a group including commodities such as grains, oilseeds, and produce. In the past 10 years, the export of these commodities has increased as a percent of production at a rate of 1.4 percent annually. For commodities such as food grains, exports make up about 65 percent of the production value. Fruits and tree nuts exports make up 44 percent of the production value. In contrast, the United States exports a lower share of the value of manufactured goods—a group including sweeteners, bakery products, and dairy products. This overall share has been declining since 2012, indicating that a greater percentage of the value of U.S. production is retained domestically for consumption. Nearly 40 percent of all U.S. agricultural export value comes from bulk commodities, whose unit prices are typically low and fluctuate widely from year to year. In contrast, manufactured goods typically are higher in value per unit compared with bulk or intermediate goods, and prices are relatively steady from one year to the next. This chart was drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) dataset U.S. Export Share of Production, Import Share of Consumption (2008-2022). It also appears in the ERS publication Selected Charts from Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, 2024.

U.S. agricultural exports contributed $412 billion to the U.S. economy in 2022

Thursday, May 16, 2024

U.S. farm and food product exports create substantial value and generate widespread economic activity both within and outside of the agricultural sector. In general, increased exports of agricultural products lead to higher demand for transportation services, packaging materials, or financial services, creating additional economic activity and employment opportunities. USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates the additional value of economic activity generated annually by agricultural exports using an agricultural trade multiplier model. This model measures the employment and output effects of trade in farm and food products on the U.S. economy. In 2022, the value of U.S. agricultural exports, comprising both commodities and food products, reached $197.4 billion. In turn, these exports generated an additional $214.6 billion in economic activity. Included in this activity, the services, trade, and transportation sector generated an estimated $73.6 billion. On the farm, agricultural exports supported business activities valued at $70.4 billion. An additional $52.5 billion was created through other manufacturing activities, along with a further $18.1 billion associated with food processing. Including the value of the exports themselves, U.S. agricultural exports generated a total economic output of $412 billion in 2022. Put another way, every $1 of U.S. agricultural product exported generated a total of $2.09 of domestic economic activity, on average. This chart is drawn from the ERS Agricultural Trade Multiplier, May 2024.

Brazil’s lower production and marketing costs challenge U.S. competitiveness in the global soybean market

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

The United States and Brazil compete to satisfy the global demand for soybeans. Soybean exports contribute billions of dollars to the U.S. economy each year even as Brazil's exports have gradually eroded the U.S. share of the global soybean market. Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) compared factors affecting the two countries’ competitiveness, including costs of both production and marketing. They determined that, on average, production costs per acre for soybeans in Brazil were 22.5 percent lower than U.S. costs from 2010/11–2021/22. Lower capital and land costs accounted for most of this difference. Brazil’s farmers largely hire out services to provide equipment and labor for field operations, whereas U.S. farmers tend to own their machinery. Land costs were also higher in the United States, where one crop is typically harvested per marketing year. Brazil’s abundant land resources and its capacity to grow two crops per year increase both the output and revenue generated per unit of land. On aggregate, U.S. costs to produce an acre of soybeans increased 2.6 percent annually from 2010/11–2021/22, while Brazil’s costs increased 0.5 percent, not adjusting for inflation. Factors driving the increase in U.S. costs per acre were higher fertilizer, pesticide, machinery, repair, and land costs. In Brazil, rising fertilizer and pesticide costs represented the bulk of the increase. In both countries, transportation of soybeans to ports adds to the cost of soybeans paid by overseas buyers. However, Brazil’s investments in overland transportation infrastructure have reduced the relative marketing cost for exporting soybeans. Average inland transport costs per metric ton in 2017/18–2021/22 in Brazil decreased by 21.4 percent compared with 2008/09–2012/13. More information can be found in the ERS report Soybean Production, Marketing Costs, and Export Competitiveness in Brazil and the United States, December 2023.

2022 Census of Agriculture: U.S. flower farms blossom amid growing traditional outdoor cultivation

Thursday, May 9, 2024

With Mother’s Day approaching, many will gift bouquets filled with blooms grown domestically and imported from abroad. Cut flowers and florist greens raised domestically were valued at nearly $763 million in 2022, according to the 2022 Census of Agriculture from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). About 10,800 commercial farms grew flowers and greens for use by florists that year, increasing by more than 50 percent from the previous census in 2017. Greenhouses and other protected-culture technologies make cultivation feasible in a wide variety of geographic locations and, in 2022, commercial flower farms spanned all 50 States. Growers throughout the country reported more than 158 million square feet of protected-culture flower and green production in 2022—the equivalent of almost 2,750 football fields. Despite the advantages to greenhouse production, growing flowers conventionally is on the rise in the United States. In 2022, more than 31,000 acres of flowers were grown in the open, an increase of 33 percent from the 2017 census. Domestic cut flower sales increased $90 million from the 2017 census, not adjusting for inflation. The value of imported flowers also increased over that time. Cut flower imports were valued at $1.9 billion in 2022, an increase of $783 million from 2017. This chart is based on data from the NASS 2022 Census of Agriculture and draws from the USDA, Economic Research Service Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: February 2024.

Exchange rate values changing in top two markets for U.S. agricultural exports

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

China and Mexico are the top two markets for U.S. agricultural exports by dollar value. Exchange rates are one of several factors that can influence U.S. agricultural trade. All else being equal, a stronger foreign currency favors U.S. exports to that country, and vice versa. For the past 2 years, China’s yuan has depreciated (has become less valuable) relative to the U.S. dollar, implying a weaker value of U.S. exports to China. The opposite has been true for the Mexican peso. The U.S. dollar appreciated in value relative to the currencies of many countries, including China, because of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate increases during this period. The Mexican peso was an exception to this, as the Bank of Mexico increased interest rates more aggressively and earlier than the Federal Reserve did for U.S. interest rates. In addition, the Mexican government’s comparatively smaller stimulus response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and optimism regarding nearshoring—in which U.S. companies relocate operations to neighboring Mexico from China—has helped strengthen the peso, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. From the perspective of U.S. farmers and agribusinesses, the decrease in the value of the yuan and increase in the value of the peso is generally associated with a decrease in export opportunities to China and an increase in export opportunities to Mexico. Not adjusting for inflation, U.S. agricultural exports to China decreased in value to $33.7 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from $36.2 billion the previous year and are forecast to fall further to $28.7 billion in FY 2024. U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico increased in value from $28.0 billion to $28.2 billion from FY 2022 to 2023 and are forecast at a record high of $28.4 billion for FY 2024. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set, February 2024.

U.S. agricultural import values outpaced export values in fiscal year 2023

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

The U.S. agricultural trade balance measures the difference between the values of exported farm goods and those imports from other countries. For nearly 60 years, U.S. agricultural trade maintained a surplus, but in fiscal year (FY) 2019, the balance shifted to a deficit, where it has stayed 3 out of the last 5 fiscal years. In FY 2023, U.S. agricultural imports exceeded exports by $16.6 billion. Imports have largely followed a stable upward trend, while exports have had relatively wide swings. From FY 2013 to 2023, import values increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.8 percent, and exports grew at a rate of 2.1 percent. Although the U.S. agricultural trade balance is closely watched, it reflects changing consumer tastes, a robust economy, and a strong dollar, and is not an indicator of export competitiveness or import dependence. The U.S. consumer’s growing appetite for high-valued imported goods—such as fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and processed grain products—has contributed to the expanding trade deficit. Those goods often include products that can’t be easily sourced in the United States, such as tropical products or off-season produce. In contrast, nearly 40 percent of U.S. exports are bulk commodities, whose prices respond more rapidly to global markets. This chart also appears in the USDA, Economic Research Service report Selected Charts from Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, 2024.

U.S. wheat imports reach 6-year high

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

U.S. wheat imports are forecast at their highest in 6 years for the 2023/24 marketing year (July–June). Consecutive years of drought in key U.S. growing regions of hard red winter wheat, an ingredient used for making bread, Asian noodles, and flour, have tapered U.S. output, elevating domestic prices. Millers have sought less expensive sources, including competitively priced wheat from the European Union (EU). U.S. imports of hard red winter wheat, mostly from the EU, for 2023/24 are at 25 million bushels, a record high, and up from 5 million bushels from 2022/23. This trade flow is atypical. U.S. wheat imports are normally driven by hard red spring and durum wheat from neighboring Canada. In 2017/18, imports from Canada of both classes of wheat were elevated because of drought-related supply issues in the United States. While U.S. imports of hard red winter wheat are elevated in 2023/24, imports of soft red winter and white wheat are relatively close to normal levels. Related to tight supplies of this hard red winter wheat in 2023/24, U.S. exports of this class of wheat are forecast at their lowest level on record. This chart is drawn from the November 2023 Wheat Outlook, published by USDA, Economic Research Service.

Fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico continue upward trend as Mexico’s growers adopt U.S. food safety rules

Thursday, December 14, 2023

More than 88 percent of Mexico’s horticultural exports are destined for the United States. The strength of Mexico’s access to the U.S. market is, in part, due to efforts by Mexico’s horticultural growers to adapt to new U.S. food safety standards. In 2011, the United States passed the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA), which covers the safety of the entire U.S. food supply chain regardless of whether a company operates on U.S. soil or in a foreign country. In response to FSMA’s new requirements for food safety, Mexico’s horticultural companies made changes to equipment, invested in new infrastructure, and implemented new techniques for food testing. U.S. horticultural imports from Mexico have doubled in volume since FSMA’s implementation in 2011. From 2000 to 2021, these imports grew at a compound annual rate of 8 percent. Adjusting for inflation, the value of imports increased from about $3.5 billion in 2000 to about $17.6 billion in 2021, as expressed in 2021 dollars. By 2021, Mexico supplied almost two-thirds of U.S. vegetable imports and about half of U.S. fruit and tree nut imports. Although mandatory compliance with FSMA’s horticultural growing standards began at the start of 2018, many companies had initiated food safety programs before the laws were enacted in 2011. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report, How Mexico’s Horticultural Export Sector Responded to the Food Safety Modernization Act, published in August 2023.

Pork exports to China surged as African swine fever curtailed China’s pork output

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

The 2018 spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China had reverberations in the global pork market. ASF—a virus often fatal to swine—caused an estimated loss of 27.9 million metric tons in China’s pork output from late 2018 to early 2021 and led to a doubling of China’s domestic pork prices. These high prices attracted a surge of pork exports from four major suppliers—the European Union (EU), United States, Brazil, and Canada. While the EU was the top supplier, U.S. pork exports were sizable and reached a record high of more than 287,000 metric tons in the second quarter of 2020. After surging, exports by all suppliers began declining during 2021 as China’s domestic production rebounded and associated prices plummeted. According to a recent report from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), pork exports to China might have increased even more during the ASF outbreak if not for several factors. Specifically, China banned pork from some EU countries that also had ASF outbreaks. In addition, U.S. pork faced high retaliatory tariffs because of trade tensions, and China rejected some Canadian pork shipments. Also, during the COVID-19 pandemic, China launched stringent inspections of foreign meat suppliers and required decontamination of meat at Chinese ports. In aggregate, pork imports replaced about an estimated one-fifth of the domestic pork supplies lost in China during the ASF epidemic. Official data indicate that China’s pork production returned to its pre-ASF level in 2021. While exports to China are down from their peak, China is still one of the top 3 overseas markets for U.S. pork, with sales in the first 6 months of 2023 exceeding annual totals posted in years before ASF hit China. This chart first appeared in the ERS report How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets, published November 2023.