ERS Charts of Note
Subscribe to our Charts of Note series, which highlights economic research and analysis on agriculture, food, the environment, and rural America. Each week, this series highlights charts of interest from current and past ERS research.
At the end of the year, users can look forward to our Editors’ Picks of the Best of Charts of Note.
Monday, November 4, 2024
In marketing year 2024/25, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that U.S. farmers planted record-low sunflower acreage, nearly half of what was planted in the previous year. The largest decline in acreage occurred for the type of sunflower that is grown mainly to produce oil and is also used in bird food. On average, oil-type sunflower acreage accounts for nearly 90 percent of total sunflower acreage, whereas in 2024/25 it is forecast to account for 83 percent. Most of the decline in acreage occurred in the top two producing States, North Dakota and South Dakota. This decline is attributed to lower profitability compared with other oilseed crops, such as canola and soybeans. Sunflower stocks at the end of 2023/24 were the highest since 2016/17, contributing to the lowest average farm price since 2019/20. In addition, expansion in canola and soybean processing facilities in North Dakota created new domestic demand for those oilseeds, supporting expansion in acreage of canola and soybeans at the loss of sunflower acres. While the planted acreage is at a record low, yields in 2024/25 are forecast at a record high because of peak growing conditions in the Dakotas. Still, total sunflower production in 2024/25 is forecast at 1.3 billion pounds, the lowest since 1976/77. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook, October 2024.
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Pumpkins are native to the Americas, and their cultivation has been dated back to 7,000 BCE in what is now Mexico. Today, pumpkins are grown commercially in every U.S. State, with uses ranging from cooking and baking to decorating and carving jack-o’-lanterns. Farm prices received can vary widely by State because of the type of pumpkins being grown and their intended use. About 85 percent of U.S. pumpkin acres harvested go to the fresh market, mostly for decorative purposes. The remaining 15 percent go to the processing market, which are used in food products, such as pumpkin puree, and are priced lower than decorative pumpkins. In Illinois, about 70 percent of pumpkin acres are harvested for processing. This means that Illinois growers consistently received the lowest prices, averaging $40 per 1,000 pounds of pumpkins during 2021 to 2023. In contrast, Washington growers consistently received the highest prices for their predominantly decorative pumpkins, averaging $355 per 1,000 pounds during 2021 to 2023. In 2023, prices in other top pumpkin-producing States averaged between $177 and $203 per 1,000 pounds of pumpkins, most of which were used for decorative purposes. This chart is drawn from USDA, Economic Research Service’s Trending Topics page, Pumpkins: Background & Statistics.
Monday, October 7, 2024
Genetically engineered seeds were commercially introduced for major field crops in the United States in 1996, with adoption rates increasing rapidly in the years that followed. The most planted trait types of genetically engineered seeds are herbicide tolerant (HT) and insect resistant (Bt). These traits can be added individually to seeds or combined into in a single seed, called stacked seed traits. USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) reports information on genetically engineered HT and Bt crops in the data product Adoption of Genetically Engineered Crops in the U.S. These data show that by 2008 more than 50 percent of corn, cotton, and soybean acres were planted with genetically engineered seeds using at least one trait—a number that has risen to 90 percent as of 2024. Although traits other than Bt have been developed, such as virus, fungus, or drought resistance, and enhanced protein, oil, or vitamin content, HT and Bt traits are the most commonly used in U.S. crop production. While HT seeds are also widely used in alfalfa, canola, and sugar beet production, most genetically engineered acres are planted to three major field crops: corn, cotton, and soybeans. This chart appears in the ERS topic page Biotechnology, updated in August 2024.
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
U.S. wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year is estimated at 1.971 billion bushels, up 9 percent year to year and the highest level since 2016/17. This development stands in contrast to a long-term downward trend in U.S. wheat production resulting from declining acreage as more farmers switched to production of other crops, such as corn and soybeans. For the last two seasons, however, wheat acreage—as measured by area harvested—has risen. High wheat prices during the fall of 2022 encouraged farmers to plant substantially more wheat for the 2023/24 marketing year. Despite area gains, a major drought in regions producing hard red winter wheat (one of the five major classes of wheat) negatively affected the harvestable volume of wheat. In 2024/25, despite less acreage being planted into wheat, more favorable weather is expected to boost area harvested and yield compared with the previous season. Production is forecast higher for hard red winter, hard red spring, white, and durum classes of wheat as conditions have been generally favorable. While soft red winter production is down 24 percent from the previous year’s bumper crop, it is forecast above the recent 5-year average. This chart is drawn from the August 2024 Wheat Outlook and has been updated with recent data.
Monday, September 16, 2024
Camelids—members of the animal family that includes camels, alpacas, and llamas—are hardy and versatile livestock that contribute to global meat, milk, and fiber production. These specialized herbivores can survive in diverse and even arid terrain while providing services such as transportation and companionship or guarding flocks of sheep, goats, hens, and other livestock. Because of the camelids’ importance to worldwide food security and economic growth, the United Nations declared 2024 the International Year of Camelids. Despite their global popularity, the U.S. herd size of the primary camelids in production, llamas and alpacas, has been shrinking since 2007. Data from the USDA Censuses of Agriculture show the national combined herd of llamas and alpacas decreased by nearly half from 2007 to 2022, with llama inventories alone decreasing 76 percent. As of the 2022 Census of Agriculture, about 99,500 head of alpacas were reported nationally along with about 29,700 head of llamas. The number of farms with llamas and alpacas also decreased from 2012 to 2022. For more Census of Agriculture data, see the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Census of Agriculture page. Information about Federal commodity programs for livestock, including alpacas and llamas, can be found in the USDA, Economic Research Service topic page, Animal Policy & Regulatory Issues.
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
U.S. imports of animal fats (edible tallow, inedible tallow, lard, and poultry fats), greases, and processed oils—including used cooking oil—skyrocketed to nearly 5.0 billion pounds in 2023 from 2.2 billion pounds in 2022. This surge in imports has been driven by rising domestic production of biomass-based diesel (fuels derived from animal fats and vegetable oils) to meet U.S. Federal and State policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These policies sparked new demand for animal fats, processed oils, and grease and have boosted imports, especially processed oil imports commonly known as used cooking oil (UCO). Processed oil imports doubled to 3 billion pounds from 2022 to 2023 as China emerged as the top supplier. U.S. tallow imports also have increased, largely on expanded sourcing from Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. With stronger tallow and processed oil imports, the share of animal fats, waste oils, and greases as a portion of total oil and fat-related used in biomass-based diesel production has increased to 36 percent from 31 percent in 2021, while vegetable oil’s share has declined. As biofuel use continues growing, this structural shift in biomass-based diesel production and import markets is expected to affect the domestic use and trade flows of animal fats and vegetable oils. This chart is drawn from a Special Article in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook: July 2024. See also this Chart of Note on biomass-based diesel production, published August 8, 2024.
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Potatoes are grown throughout the United States, but the proportion of distinct potato varieties varies in the top 13 potato-producing States. The versatile Russet potato—used for baking, mashing, and frying—is the most popular variety and accounts for about 70 percent of planted acres each year. Russets make up a majority share of potato acreage in northern growing States, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine, where the variety is well-suited for the cooler climate. White potatoes—grown for use in fresh and chip processing markets—typically account for one-fifth of area planted to potatoes and are second in popularity. In Michigan, white potatoes consistently account for a higher percentage of planted acreage because of demand from chip-producing plants in the State. Red, blue, and yellow varieties account for the smallest share of acreage planted to potatoes and are primarily grown for the fresh market. Differences in the proportion of potato varieties can be attributed to many factors, including consumer demand, crop rotation limitations, seed availability, and industry demand for specific varieties of processing potatoes. In 2024, the United States is forecast to plant 941,000 acres of potatoes, which would be a 2-percent decrease from 2023. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Vegetables and Pulses Outlook, released in July 2024.
Thursday, August 8, 2024
U.S. Federal and State policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have encouraged the production of biofuels, which are derived from crops, vegetable oils, and animal fats. One type of biofuel is biomass-based diesel, which includes mainly biodiesel and renewable diesel. With expansion of the Renewable Volume Obligations under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuels Standard program as well as State programs, the capacity to make renewable diesel has grown significantly, driving an increase in total biomass-based diesel production from 1.8 billion gallons in 2016 to 4.6 billion gallons in 2023. The use of animal fats (edible and inedible tallow, lard, and poultry fats) and greases, including used cooking oil (known as “UCO”), in producing biomass-based diesel increased to nearly 12 billion pounds in 2023. Use of animal fats, waste oils, and greases accounted for 37 percent of total feedstocks used for biomass-based diesel production in 2023, compared with 17 percent in 2020. The increasing share of animal fats, waste oils, and greases corresponds with a declining share of vegetable oils (soybean, canola, and corn) in biomass-based diesel production. The rising use of animal fats, waste oils, and grease (including used cooking oil) has boosted U.S. import demand for those products, especially used cooking oil. Used cooking oil imports reached more than 3 billion pounds in 2023, compared with 0.9 billion pounds in 2022. This chart is drawn from a Special Article in USDA, Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook: July 2024.
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
The United States has been the leading raw cotton exporter to the world virtually every year for more than 100 years. Leading export nation status was relinquished by the United States just a few times over the last century, most recently to Uzbekistan in the 1992/93 marketing year (August–July). U.S.-grown cotton was once principally used in domestic mills, but raw cotton exports became the dominant use in the early 2000s. Mills in other countries—particularly China—expanded textile and apparel product exports following developed countries’ phaseout of import quotas. Most U.S.-grown cotton is now destined for foreign mills and subject to increased competition from other cotton-producing countries. In recent years, Brazil has gradually become a major cotton export competitor, particularly as domestic cotton production expanded to the Center-West region of the country. On favorable conditions, Brazil’s 2023/24 cotton crop is estimated at a record 14.6 million bales, while U.S. production decreased because of drought in the Southwest. USDA’s June 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast Brazil’s 2023/24 cotton exports at 12.4 million bales, surpassing U.S. exports to become the largest global exporter. For 2024/25, the United States is projected to reclaim the role as top cotton exporter, as U.S. production is projected to rebound. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Cotton and Wool Outlook: June 2024.
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Production of ice cream in the United States totaled 1.3 billion gallons in 2023. While most frozen dairy product output is regular ice cream, consumer demand for lower-fat and lower-sugar options has increased production share and volume of low-fat and nonfat varieties over time. Average annual production of regular ice cream decreased after peaking in 2002 then increased again in 2019–23, while production of low-fat and nonfat ice cream increased during 2019–23 in part because of elevated ice cream demand during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In 2019–23, low-fat and nonfat ice cream production accounted for more than 35 percent of the total volume of ice cream churned in the United States, compared with 29 percent in 1999–2003. Production of frozen dairy treats such as sherbet and frozen yogurt remains relatively low by comparison. In aggregate, production of ice cream and other frozen dairy products have trended lower, declining from 1.5 billion gallons annually in 1999–2003 to 1.4 billion gallons in 2019–23. This decrease is in line with reduced deliveries of caloric sweeteners (an indicator of consumption of refined sugar and high-fructose corn syrup, among others) which peaked in 1999, reflecting shifting consumer preferences. This chart is drawn from Dairy Data and Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables, published by USDA, Economic Research Service.
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
In the United States, the share of harvested acres dedicated to vegetables intended for sale in the processing market varies widely by crop. Some vegetables lend themselves readily to processing, such as tomatoes for sauces and canning. Others are largely destined for the fresh market and have only a small percentage processed, such as broccoli. Using data from the 2022 Census of Agriculture, the share of harvested acres for processing is estimated to range from around 90 percent for green peas and horseradish to less than 5 percent for cauliflower and broccoli. More than half of harvested acres for potatoes (56 percent) and sweet corn (55 percent)—the top two vegetables by acres harvested—was devoted to processing production. Processing accounted for 39 percent of total melon, vegetable, potato, and sweet potato harvested area in 2022 (excluding mushrooms and pulse crops), down from 44 percent at the 2012 census. The greatest total number of harvested acres devoted to processing was for potatoes (600,169 acres), followed by sweet corn (258,781 acres) and tomatoes (248,318 acres). The number of acres of vegetables, potatoes, and melons harvested by U.S. growers has decreased since the 2007 census. With fresh-market acreage relatively flat, the declines have been concentrated in processing acreage. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Vegetables and Pulses Outlook Report released April 2024.
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
From 2009 to 2019, controlled environment agriculture (CEA), also referred to as “protected agriculture” or “protected culture,” saw significant growth in both the number of operations and production of fresh produce in the United States. CEA systems grant producers control of factors such as temperature, wind, lighting, and/or precipitation. These systems help to increase production while limiting factors that could inhibit growth, such as adverse weather conditions and common pests. In the United States, CEA operations—which include greenhouses, vertical agriculture, hydroponics, aquaponics, and other controlled production methods—increased by more than 100 percent from 1,476 operations in 2009 to 2,994 in 2019. Production volumes increased by 56 percent during the same time to 7.86 million hundredweight. Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the crops grown in CEA systems in 2009 and 2019 were tomatoes, lettuce, and cucumbers, with hydroponic systems being the most common method of cultivation. Updated data from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Census of Horticultural Specialties are expected in December 2024. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report Trends, Insights, and Future Prospects for Production in Controlled Environment Agriculture and Agrivoltaics Systems, January 2024.
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Changes in technology and higher seed costs have shifted the way farmers plant soybeans in the United States. Between 1997 and 2018, soybean seeding rates—the number of seeds planted per acre—declined by 22 percent on U.S. farms. In 1997, farmers planted an average of more than 200,000 soybean seeds per acre. The seeding rate fell to about 192,000 in 2002, then to 175,000 in 2006, 165,000 in 2012, and finally to 157,000 in 2018. The decline in seeding rates was accompanied by an increase in row widths, or the distance between planting rows. From 1997 to 2002, the average U.S. soybean row width declined from 17 inches to 16 inches. Average row widths subsequently increased to 18 inches in 2006 and to 20 inches in 2012. The average row width remained at about 20 inches in 2018. In addition to fewer rows being planted per acre in recent years, other factors are linked with the decline in soybean seeding rates, such as planting method. The two most commonly used planting methods for soybeans are drilling and planting in rows using conventional planters. Drills tend to plant seeds closer together and in narrower rows than conventional planters and are thus associated with higher seeding rates. Over time, a higher share of U.S. soybean acres has been planted using conventional planters than drilling. In addition, seed technologies have changed over time; for instance, the planting of genetically engineered (GE) seed became more common during this period. Finally, the cost of seed on a per acre basis has increased, creating incentives for farmers to plant fewer seeds. Researchers in a 2023 USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) study found that as soybean production practices changed, yields also rose. From 2002 to 2018, U.S. soybean yields increased by 30 percent. This chart first appeared in the ERS Oil Crops Outlook: May 2024.
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, a program that originated in the mid-2000s, mandates that a specific volume of certain biofuels be used each year in transportation fuel. One category of biofuels included in this mandate is biomass-based diesel. For many years, this portion of the biofuels mandate was filled by biodiesel, which is produced using fats such as soybean oil, corn oil, yellow grease, or tallow and must be blended with traditional diesel. Production of biodiesel grew steadily beginning in the early 2000s to a peak of 1.8 billion gallons during the 2018/19 marketing year for soybean oil (October–September) but has declined slightly to 1.7 billion gallons in 2022/23. Renewable diesel has displaced biodiesel’s share of the market. Renewable diesel can be produced from similar fats as biodiesel, but unlike biodiesel, renewable diesel is a “drop in” biofuel, meaning it does not need to be blended with traditional diesel. Production of renewable diesel has grown from 40 million gallons in the 2010/11 marketing year to 2.3 billion gallons in 2022/23, surpassing biodiesel production for the first time. Combined, biodiesel and renewable diesel pushed total biomass-based diesel production to an all-time high in 2022/23. As this portion of the biofuels sector has mostly expanded since 2001/02, an increasing share of soybean oil produced in the United States is now used for biofuel, growing from less than 1 percent in 2001/02 to 46 percent in 2022/23. This chart was drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service data product, U.S. Bioenergy Statistics.
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
The United States and Brazil compete to satisfy the global demand for soybeans. Soybean exports contribute billions of dollars to the U.S. economy each year even as Brazil's exports have gradually eroded the U.S. share of the global soybean market. Researchers with USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) compared factors affecting the two countries’ competitiveness, including costs of both production and marketing. They determined that, on average, production costs per acre for soybeans in Brazil were 22.5 percent lower than U.S. costs from 2010/11–2021/22. Lower capital and land costs accounted for most of this difference. Brazil’s farmers largely hire out services to provide equipment and labor for field operations, whereas U.S. farmers tend to own their machinery. Land costs were also higher in the United States, where one crop is typically harvested per marketing year. Brazil’s abundant land resources and its capacity to grow two crops per year increase both the output and revenue generated per unit of land. On aggregate, U.S. costs to produce an acre of soybeans increased 2.6 percent annually from 2010/11–2021/22, while Brazil’s costs increased 0.5 percent, not adjusting for inflation. Factors driving the increase in U.S. costs per acre were higher fertilizer, pesticide, machinery, repair, and land costs. In Brazil, rising fertilizer and pesticide costs represented the bulk of the increase. In both countries, transportation of soybeans to ports adds to the cost of soybeans paid by overseas buyers. However, Brazil’s investments in overland transportation infrastructure have reduced the relative marketing cost for exporting soybeans. Average inland transport costs per metric ton in 2017/18–2021/22 in Brazil decreased by 21.4 percent compared with 2008/09–2012/13. More information can be found in the ERS report Soybean Production, Marketing Costs, and Export Competitiveness in Brazil and the United States, December 2023.
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Florida’s citrus industry has long been susceptible to freezes, hurricanes, and disease. A series of devastating freezes in the 1970s and 1980s caused production to shift to more southern regions of the State. Then after near-record output in the 2003/04 season, subsequent events decreased Florida’s orange output at an average rate of 6 percent a year. Between 2004 and 2005, 4 hurricanes reduced the size of the orange crop and further spread citrus canker, a bacterial disease damaging to tree health and fruit quality, to previously unaffected areas. The Florida citrus industry faced an additional challenge in 2005, when citrus greening disease, a bacterial disease deadly to citrus trees, was first detected in its commercial groves. Citrus greening disease leads to premature fruit drop, unripe fruit, and eventual tree death. With no known cure, citrus growers use a variety of management strategies to protect young trees, increase tree immune response, sustain grove health, and improve fruit marketability. While these management strategies can partially offset yield losses, they increase the costs of production. Hurricanes in 2017 and 2022 dealt further damage to Florida’s citrus industry. Since 2003/04, bearing acreage of Florida’s orange trees has declined at an average rate of 3 percent per year. In April 2024, USDA forecast Florida’s orange 2023/24 production at 846,000 tons, 19 percent higher than the previous year but the second-lowest harvest in nearly 90 years. This chart updates information in the USDA, Economic Research Service Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, published in March 2023.
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
The turn of the century marked a shift in California’s olive industry. Historically, the State’s olive industry—which accounts for about 84 percent of olive acreage in the United States—was synonymous with canned olive production. Between 1980 and 2000, about 90 percent of California’s production was used for canned olives, most of which were of the black-ripe variety. California black-ripe olives are harvested green, before full maturity, and turn black from oxidation during processing. These shiny black-ripe olives are commonly sold as whole pitted or sliced canned products at retail or food service, where they often are used as pizza or salad toppings. Since the mid-2000s, the share of California’s olive production used to make olive oil has grown rapidly, from 10 percent in 2005 to more than 75 percent in 2022. This shift has been driven by increases in labor costs and import competition, as well as technological advancements that have made harvesting new olive oil-type cultivars comparatively quicker and less expensive. California olive oil production rose from 2 million pounds in 2006 to an average of 21 million pounds in 2021–23. Despite this increase in U.S. olive oil production, imports still supply more than 98 percent of the domestic consumption. This chart is based on the USDA, Economic Research Service Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook Report, released March 2024.
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
The number of farms producing wheat for grain declined substantially from 2002 to 2022, according to new data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2022 Census of Agriculture. In 2022, the number of U.S. farms reporting wheat production was 97,014, a 43-percent decrease compared with the 2002 census, when 169,528 farms reported wheat production. The reduction in the number of farms producing wheat was spread across all classes of wheat. The number of farms producing winter wheat—84 percent of U.S. wheat farms in 2022—dropped by nearly 60,000, or 42 percent, between the 2002 and 2022 censuses. Farms producing durum wheat decreased by the largest percentage, down 59 percent from 2002. The number of farms growing spring wheat (other than durum) declined 43 percent from 2002 to 2022. During the same time period, total volume of U.S. wheat produced trended down slightly, largely because of less acreage being harvested. As the profitability of other crops rises, wheat is increasingly planted in rotation with more profitable corn or soybean crops. Among major wheat-producing States, Kansas, which accounts for 15 percent of all U.S. wheat farms, saw a reduction of 9,716 farms—a 40-percent decrease from 2002 to 2022. Texas and Oklahoma reported decreases of 54 and 47 percent, respectively, between 2002 and 2022. Together, these 3 States harvested nearly 32 of percent of the volume of winter wheat produced in 2022, according to data reported by NASS in the Small Grains Annual report. For more details on the 2022 Census of Agriculture, see the NASS Census of Agriculture website. Information on trends in the wheat production sector can be found in the special article, “U.S. Census of Agriculture: Highlighting Changing Trends in Wheat Farming” in USDA, Economic Research Service’s March 2024 Wheat Outlook.
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Fertilizer is one of several inputs corn growers buy in the months before April and May, when most U.S. corn acres are planted. Historically, fertilizer is typically the largest variable expense associated with corn production. Every May, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reports production costs, including fertilizer, for corn and other major commodities in the Commodity Costs and Returns data product. Although fertilizer costs have varied over time, the average cost of fertilizer per acre from 2006 to 2021 was around $125, not adjusting for inflation. Costs jumped to an average of $225.78 per acre in 2022, and then fell to an estimated $186.73 in 2023. This represents an 89-percent increase from 2021 to 2022 followed by a decrease of 17 percent from 2022 to 2023. In addition to fertilizer expenses, other costs of production reported in the data include operating costs, such as seed, fuel, and chemicals, as well as allocated overhead costs, such as labor, capital recovery of machinery, and the opportunity cost of land—a category that reflects rent or income that might have been earned from renting out the land when the land is owned. Fertilizer costs accounted for about 22 percent of total corn production costs per acre from 2006 to 2016, then fell to historical lows averaging around 17 percent from 2017 to 2021. In 2022, price spikes resulted in fertilizer costs jumping to about 24 percent of total costs. While elevated, fertilizer expenses as a share of total costs remained lower in 2022 compared with 2008, when they were 26 percent of total costs. From 2022 to 2023, total corn production costs remained elevated compared with 2021 and before, even as fertilizer costs declined. Iowa prices published by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for the most commonly used fertilizers anhydrous ammonia, urea, and liquid nitrogen (32 percent) show decreases from 2023 to 2024, with slight upticks in the second reporting period of February. Cost of production data for 2023 is set to be released on May 1, 2024. This chart is drawn from the ERS Commodity Costs and Returns data product.
Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. sugar exports for fiscal year 2024 are forecast to be the largest in 6 years, rising to an estimated 160,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) in the February 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. About 88 percent of that volume is expected to go to Mexico, where sugar production has fallen to a 15-year low. This would put U.S. sugar exports to Mexico on par with those during 2008–13, when the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was active. Under NAFTA, Mexico could import U.S. sugar without tariffs or quotas, and U.S. exports averaged 167,000 STRV while the trade agreement was in effect. At the time, most of the sugar was imported by Mexico-based manufacturers participating in a promotion program commonly known as IMMEX. The program provided tax incentives if the companies used imported U.S. sugar in food products that would be re-exported within a certain amount of time. In 2014, in response to U.S. investigations into subsidies affecting sugar imports from Mexico, the two countries reached agreements that suspended the investigations and restricted the price and quantity of Mexico’s sugar exports to the United States. Mexico then declared that sugar imported from the United States would no longer qualify for duty-free treatment under IMMEX if that sugar was the beneficiary of the U.S. version of a re-export program. After that, U.S. sugar exports to Mexico fell to below 50,000 STRV, on average, each fiscal year. In the last 2 years, however, the United States increased its sugar exports to Mexico as U.S. domestic beet and cane sugar production rose and Mexico experienced back-to-back years of low production related to drought and reduced fertilizer use. This chart is based on information in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2024.