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Meat production on the rise in former Soviet Union countries

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Former Soviet Union countries, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan experienced significant contractions in meat production in the 1990s and early 2000s. This trend reversed since 2005, with meat production over 70 percent greater in 2011-15 than the low point in 2001-05. The move from a centrally planned to a market based economy in the 1990s upended the growth of the livestock sector. Because of severe financial constraints, the large budget subsidies to agriculture—and especially the previously favored livestock sector—were mostly terminated, which led to reduced production. Aided by renewed subsidies and other policies beneficial to the industry, the livestock sector in these countries rebounded. From 2000 to 2015, average annual meat production rose in Kazakhstan (39 percent), Russia (116 percent), and Ukraine (50 percent). This chart appears in the ERS report Changing Crop Area in the Former Soviet Union Region released in February 2017.

Asia and Western Hemisphere propel growth in U.S. agricultural exports

Thursday, September 1, 2016

U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at a record $149.5 billion in fiscal 2014 (year ending September 30), $8.6 billion above 2013, with exports to Asian and Western Hemisphere countries accounting for most of the growth. China is forecast to remain the largest U.S. market, with U.S. sales expected to rise from $23.5 billion in fiscal 2013 to $28 billion in fiscal 2014. Other Asian markets forecast to show significant growth include Hong Kong, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand. In the Western Hemisphere, exports to Canada (the second largest U.S. market) are expected to rise marginally to $21.6 billion, while exports to Mexico (the third largest) are forecast to rise to $18.6 billion. U.S. export growth is also forecast for South America, including Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Higher income growth and a lower U.S. exchange rate are expected to support continued growth in U.S. exports, especially within the Western Hemisphere. Although slower income growth is anticipated for China in 2014, demand for agricultural goods is expected to remain robust. This chart is based on data found in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

India close to becoming world's largest cotton producer

Thursday, September 1, 2016

India?s cotton production has expanded rapidly since the early 2000s, passing the United States to become the world?s 2nd largest producer in 2006/07 (August/July marketing year), and now poised to surpass China?the world?s largest producer. India?s cotton production began to expand with the introduction of genetically-modified Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton; higher yield potential and increased pest resistance boosted profitability and stimulated growth in both area and yields. Since 2000/01, India?s cotton area has increased about 2.8 percent annually and is now more than double the area sown to cotton in China and more than triple U.S. cotton area. However, India?s cotton yields, while improving about 6 percent annually since 2000/01 to an average of 530 kgs/ha during 2009/10-2013/14, remain well below those achieved in China (1,357 kgs/ha) and the United States (916 kgs/ha). With gains in production, India has emerged as the world?s second largest exporter of raw cotton, after the United States, and the second largest consumer of raw cotton, after China. Cotton processed in India is destined for its large domestic market as well as exports of cotton yarn, fabric, and clothing.? Find additional analysis of cotton market developments in Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2014.

Editor's Pick 2014, #1:<br>China's net grain imports surge in 2012 and 2013

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China?s demand for imported grains, much of it from the United States, has surged recently, with imports of cereal grains rising to 16 million tons in 2012 and 18 million in 2013. Imports in 2013 included 3 million tons of corn and 4 million tons of DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles; a co-product of U.S. corn ethanol production used for feed) from the United States.? In 2013, the United States supplied 70 percent of China?s wheat imports and, for the first time, China became a major market for U.S. sorghum. China?s demand for feed grains appears to have reached a turning point, as a tightening labor supply and rising feed costs force structural change in China?s livestock sector. Labor scarcity, animal disease pressures, and rising living standards are prompting rural households to abandon ?backyard? livestock production and shift more production to specialized farm enterprises that rely more heavily on commercial feed. Because of this, China has switched from being a corn exporter to importing 3-5 million tons annually since 2009. Rising feed demand has also pushed up costs and motivated feed mills and livestock producers to explore new feed ingredients like DDGS and sorghum. Find this chart and additional analysis in "China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed" in the April Amber Waves. Originally published Thursday May 22, 2014.

International agricultural productivity growth remains uneven across countries

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) is the difference between the aggregate total output of crop/livestock commodities and the combined use of land, labor, capital and material inputs employed in farm production. Growth in TFP implies that the adoption of new technology or improved management of farm resources is increasing average productivity or efficiency of input use. Worldwide, agricultural TFP grew at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent during of 2002-11, the latest decade for which figures are available. However, not all countries are achieving growth in agricultural TFP. Among developing countries, some large countries like China and Brazil are improving their agricultural TFP rapidly, but many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are lagging behind. Most developed countries are continuing to achieve moderate rates of agricultural TFP growth, but some, such as the UK and Australia, have experienced a slowdown in TFP growth. Maintaining growth in agricultural TFP is necessary for achieving global food security goals and could help preserve natural resources. This map is based on data from ERS? International Agricultural Productivity accounts.

China's net grain imports surge in 2012 and 2013

Thursday, September 1, 2016

China?s demand for imported grains, much of it from the United States, has surged recently, with imports of cereal grains rising to 16 million tons in 2012 and 18 million in 2013. Imports in 2013 included 3 million tons of corn and 4 million tons of DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles; a co-product of U.S. corn ethanol production used for feed) from the United States.? In 2013, the United States supplied 70 percent of China?s wheat imports and, for the first time, China became a major market for U.S. sorghum. ??China?s demand for feed grains appears to have reached a turning point, as a tightening labor supply and rising feed costs force structural change in China?s livestock sector. Labor scarcity, animal disease pressures, and rising living standards are prompting rural households to abandon ?backyard? livestock production and shift more production to specialized farm enterprises that rely more heavily on commercial feed. Because of this, China has switched from being a corn exporter to importing 3-5 million tons annually since 2009. Rising feed demand has also pushed up costs and motivated feed mills and livestock producers to explore new feed ingredients like DDGS and sorghum. Find this chart and additional analysis in "China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed" in the April Amber Waves.

India emerges as major beef exporter

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Since the late 2000s, India?s exports of beef?specifically water buffalo meat, also known as carabeef?have expanded rapidly, with India moving just ahead of Brazil to become the world?s largest exporter in 2014. India?s beef exports during the period have grown at an annual rate of about 12 percent, rising from an average volume of 0.31 million metric tons during 1999-2001 to an estimated 1.95 million during 2013-15. India?s robust export growth contributed to the expansion of world beef trade during this period and also increased the country?s share of the volume of shipments by major world beef exporters from just 5 percent during 1999-2001 to about 20 percent during 2013-15. The U.S. market share fluctuated during this period but declined from an average of 18 percent during 1999-2001 to 12 percent during 2013-15. This chart is from the ERS report, From Where the Buffalo Roam: India?s Beef Exports, released June 22, 2016.

China's corn yields continue to lag behind U.S. yields

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Data sources indicate that China?s corn yields continue to lag behind yields achieved in the United States (the world?s leading producer) with implications for China?s ability to meet future corn demand through domestic production. Both China?s official yield estimates provided by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and alternative survey-based estimates provided by China?s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) show China?s average corn yields to be both lower and growing more slowly than U.S. average yields. A key factor constraining yield growth in China is slow progress in breeding appropriate varieties to build on past gains achieved from the adoption of hybrid corn. While fertilizer use is already high by world standards, improvements in pest protection and drought resistance?potentially through the adoption of genetically modified varieties?may offer yield gains.? Current USDA corn supply and demand projections for China indicate that demand is likely to outpace production, leading to expanding corn imports.? Find this chart and additional analysis in Prospects for China?s Corn Yields and Imports.? ?

Import restrictions begin to curtail growth in U.S. feed exports to China

Thursday, September 1, 2016

With record shipments so far in 2013/14 (September/August marketing year), China has emerged as a major buyer of U.S. feed grains, but this trade is now being disrupted by China?s rejection of U.S. shipments containing unapproved genetically modified (GM) material. U.S. corn exports to China have reached 4.0 million tons so far in 2013/14 and China has also, for the first time, initiated large-scale imports of U.S. sorghum, with imports of 2.3 million tons in the first 7 months of 2013/14. China has become the largest U.S. export market for distillers dry grains with solubles (DDGS, a byproduct from production of corn-based ethanol) with sales to China of 2.8 million tons in 2012/13 and 4.0 million tons so far in 2013/14. Feed sales to China are being driven by the continued expansion of meat and feed consumption, high Chinese corn prices, and demand by animal product producers for cost-efficient feed ingredients.? Until recently, China?s trade policies have helped channel demand toward DDGS and sorghum, which face relatively low tariffs and?unlike corn?are not subject to import quotas. But, so far in 2013/14, China has rejected about 1.1 million tons of U.S. corn and DDGS containing unapproved GM material, specifically the MIR 162 strain, and other shipments have been cancelled or diverted to other destinations. More recently, China has halted issuance of licenses for imports of any U.S. DDGS.? These developments place prospects for U.S feed grain exports to China in 2013/14 and beyond in question. For further analysis, see China?s Market for Distillers Dried Grains and the Key Influences on Its Longer Run Potential.

U.S. cotton production and share of global supply are expected to be up in 2016

Thursday, September 1, 2016

The 2016 U.S. cotton crop is expected to reach 15.8 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds), 23 percent larger than the 2015 crop, reflecting a 17-percent increase in acreage, lower abandonment and higher yields compared to last year. Globally, cotton production is projected to reach 102.5 million bales in 2016, up 5 percent from last year. Global cotton production is concentrated among a small number of countries, with India and China accounting for nearly half of world production and the top five producers expected to supply 77 percent of the world?s cotton this year. Production in most countries is expected to increase at least modestly this year, with the exception of China, where production is expected to fall 4.5 percent to 21.4 million bales as acreage there falls to historically low levels. Given the large increase in U.S. production, the U.S. share of global supply is expected to increase from 13.2 percent in 2015 to 15.4 percent in 2016, compared to a 27-percent share supplied by India and 21 percent by China. This chart is from the ERS report Cotton and Wool Outlook report, July 2016.

Yield growth supports rapid expansion of Brazilian corn production

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Rising yields have been the primary driver of growth in Brazil?s corn production since the mid-2000s. Production gains have allowed Brazil to meet rising domestic corn demand, as well as emerge as a major corn exporter. New high-yielding varieties, the introduction of GMO corn, improved cultural practices, and a shift to higher-yielding land has supported long-term yield growth.? A large share of second-crop corn is planted following soybeans in the frontier agricultural State of Mato Grosso, where corn production quadrupled over the past decade.? In 2011/12 and 2012/13 (March/February marketing year), above-average rains in Mato Grosso pushed corn yields and production to record levels.? For 2013/14, lower corn prices caused reductions in corn area and, with the assumption of more normal weather, corn yields are forecast below the 2012/13 record.? Brazil is the world?s third largest corn producer after the United States and China.? Brazil became the world?s largest corn exporter in 2012/13 when the U.S. corn crop was damaged by drought, but is forecast to be the second largest exporter in in 2013/14. Find additional analysis of corn market developments in Feed Outlook: March 2014.

Global rice trade heading for another record in 2015

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.3 million tons in 2015, continuing the pattern of higher levels of global rice trade established since 2012. Recent growth in rice trade is largely based on record imports by Sub-Saharan Africa and China, moderating world rice prices, and abundant exportable supplies in Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to import a record 12.75 million tons of rice in 2015, with Nigeria (3.5 million tons) the largest regional?and second largest global?rice importer. China is forecast to import a record 3.7 million tons of rice in 2015, up 0.5 million tons from 2014, making it the largest global importer. Other major buyers expected to boost rice imports in 2015 include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and the European Union.? Thailand is projected to be the largest rice exporter in 2015, shipping 10 million tons of rice, followed by India (9 million), Vietnam (6.7 million), Pakistan (3.9 million), and the United States (3.25 million). Although U.S. season average farm prices for long grain rice are forecast to be down about 10 percent in 2014/15, the recent pattern has been for U.S. rice to sell at larger premiums than Thai and Vietnamese rice. Find this chart in the Rice Chart Gallery, with additional analysis in Rice Outlook: May 2014.

Calorie availability and importance of food in household spending are inversely related

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Celebrated on October 16, World Food Day provides an opportunity to raise awareness of the worldwide problems of poverty and hunger. Countries vary in how much their citizens spend on food at home as a share of consumption expenditures.?Consumption expenditures include all household spending, but not savings.?High-income countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom have higher food spending in absolute terms, but their food spending share is low. These two countries spent less than 10 percent of their consumption expenditures on food purchased from supermarkets and other food stores in 2013, while the share approached 50 percent in low-income countries such as Kenya. Per capita calorie availability follows the reverse pattern. In 2011, U.S. per capita calorie availability was 3,639 calories per day, while Kenya?s was 2,189 calories?more than one-third less. Middle-income countries such as Brazil and China surpassed daily calorie availability of 3,000 calories per person with a 16-percent share of consumption expenditures for food at home in Brazil and 26 percent in China. The data for this chart come from ERS?s Food Expenditures data product, updated on October 1, 2014, complemented with data from United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization, FAOSTAT.

Sweetener consumption in Mexico rebounded in 2014/15

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Domestic deliveries of sugar and high-fructose corn syrup in Mexico—a useful indicator of human consumption—rebounded in the most recent marketing year (October/September) after declining about 6.5 percent the previous year. In January 2014, Mexico imposed a tax of one peso per liter on soft drinks in an effort to curb obesity by reducing consumption, and this is believed to be at least partially behind the reduction in sweetener deliveries observed during the 2013/14 marketing year. From October 2014 through September 2015, sweetener use by Mexican food processors returned to levels equivalent to just before the tax was imposed. Food consumption patterns change slowly and reflect many factors, so time and additional research is needed to fully understand the effect of Mexico’s soft-drink tax. This chart is based on the February 2016 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook.

China's feed industry is growing rapidly as livestock sector modernizes

Monday, February 22, 2016

China’s livestock industry has expanded rapidly in recent years as diets shift toward more animal proteins. China is now the world’s largest producer of livestock products and the largest manufacturer of animal feed. Commercial feed production grew from just 5 million metric tons (mmt) in 1982 to 198 mmt in 2014. The industry’s growth paralleled that of meat and egg production, which grew from about 15 mmt annu­ally in the early 1980s to 114 mmt in 2014. China’s surge in feed output for swine after 2007 reflects the Government’s emphasis on modernizing hog production and the substitution of commercial feed for locally procured materials. Feed produced for poultry grew steadily from 1990 to 2012 as feed companies promoted vertical coordination in poultry production beginning in the 1990s. Feed production for egg-laying poultry, aquaculture, cattle, and sheep also grew rapidly during 2004-2012. The growth of China’s commercial feed industry has increased its need for imported feed ingredients, making it a leading market for U.S. soybeans, sorghum, barley, and other commodities. This chart is from Development of China’s Feed Industry and Demand for Imported Commodities.

China's growing feed industry depends heavily on imported ingredients

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

After nearly four decades of transitioning from a largely plant-based diet toward greater meat consumption, China is now the world’s largest producer of livestock products and has also emerged as the largest manufacturer of animal feed. This industry’s need for a reliable supply of feed ingredients has led to a reduction of China’s import barriers for many agricultural commodities and to China’s emergence as the world’s largest importer of soybeans and a growing market for imported distillers dried grains, sorghum and barley. The need for corn is still met largely through domestic production, but China became a net corn importer in 2009. The continued growth of the feed industry and demand for feed ingredients could further curb the use of trade barriers that protect Chinese grain and oilseed producers. As advocates for lower import barriers, Chinese feed companies help to forge closer integration between China’s agricultural markets and global markets. This chart is from Development of China’s Feed Industry and Demand for Imported Commodities.

Editor's Pick 2015, #2:<br>China's meat imports surge, driven by rising domestic demand and prices

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

As China enters a new phase of its economic development, its demand for higher-valued products like meat and dairy products is growing rapidly. China’s imports of meats during 2013-14 were more than double the volume imported during the early 2000s. Growing demand and higher prices of domestic meat products have driven the growth in China’s meat imports over the past few years. China’s meat imports have shifted from items like chicken feet and animal offal to muscle meat, as living standards rose and China opened its market to more beef and mutton imports. The U.S. is currently the top supplier of China’s poultry and pork imports. U.S. exports of meat, dairy products, and other consumer-oriented products, such as fruits, nuts, and wine to China rose from $234 million in 2000 to $3 billion in 2013, comprising nearly 12 percent of the value of total U.S. agricultural exports to China that year. The growth in China’s meat imports could mean new opportunities for U.S. exporters. This chart is based on the ERS report, China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports.

Agricultural production in India shifting to high-value outputs

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

India’s economic growth and rising incomes have expanded consumer food demand to include higher valued foods, such as fruit, vegetables, and some meat products. Indian farmers appear to be meeting these new growth opportunities. A look at average production shares in the 1980-84 and the 2004-08 periods shows that growth in production of animal and horticulture products reduced the share of production growth attributable to grains. Accordingly, India’s real value of farm production increased an average 3 percent each year, rising from 2.6 trillion rupees in 1980 to 7.3 trillion rupees in 2008, or from $42 billion to $116 billion. This chart is based on Propellers of Agricultural Productivity in India, December 2015.

Corn became China's leading crop in 2012

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Dietary changes in China have led to profound changes in its markets for agricultural products. China is now the world’s largest producer of livestock products as well as the largest manufacturer of animal feed. Commercial feed includes a variety of raw materials that can be altered depending on market conditions, but the predominant ingredients in China are corn and soybean meal. China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, but the Chinese Government’s long-standing goal of self-sufficiency in grains has led to several policies aimed at supporting and expanding domestic corn production, resulting in China’s corn output doubling from 2000 to 2013. Corn output has surpassed that of wheat and rice, and became the country’s leading crop in 2012. In contrast, China’s domestic soybean output was relatively flat throughout this period and declined to under 12 million metric tons in 2013. While import restrictions and price supports succeeded in expanding corn production, those policies also led to large corn surpluses held in government stocks at prices well above world prices. This chart is from Development of China’s Feed Industry and Demand for Imported Commodities, November 19, 2015.

Increased productivity now the primary source of growth in world agricultural output

Friday, October 16, 2015

The average annual rate of global agricultural output growth slowed in the 1970s and 1980s, then accelerated in the 1990s and 2000s. In the latest period estimated (2001-12), global output of total crop and livestock commodities was expanding at an average rate of 2.5 percent per year. In the decades prior to 1990, most output growth came about from intensification of input use (i.e., using more labor, capital, and material inputs per acre of agricultural land). Bringing new land into agriculture production and extending irrigation to existing agricultural land were also important sources of growth. This changed over the last two decades, as input growth slowed. In 2001-12, improvements in productivity—getting more output from existing resources—accounted for about two-thirds of the total growth in agricultural output worldwide, reflecting the use of new technology and changes in management practices by agricultural producers around the world. This chart is based on the ERS data product, International Agricultural Productivity, updated October 2015.

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