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U.S. beef exports to China resume after 14-year absence

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

In June 2017, the United States began shipping beef to China after a 14-year absence. U.S. beef was banned from China following the discovery of isolated cases of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)–commonly known as mad cow disease–in the United States and Canada in 2003. Prior to 2003, China was among the top 10 U.S. beef export markets, but still significantly smaller than leading U.S. partners like Japan, Canada, and Mexico. In recent years, China has expanded its global beef imports and ranked as the second largest global beef importer behind the United States in 2016. U.S. beef shipments to China have grown since June and reached almost 2 million pounds in September alone. While 2 million pounds is less than 1 percent of September’s total U.S. beef exports, shipments to China are expected to grow as more U.S. suppliers receive proper USDA verifications to supply this market. This chart is drawn from the ERS Livestock and Meat International Trade Data product updated in December 2017.

U.S. beef exports higher in every month of 2017 compared with a year earlier

Thursday, November 30, 2017

In every month in 2017, U.S. beef exports exceeded the prior year’s exports, according to the latest trade data through September. Year-to-date beef exports through September total just under 2.1 billion pounds, compared with 1.8 billion during the same time in 2016, a 15-percent increase. Much of the growth in U.S. beef exports can be attributed to increased shipments to Japan, which has received 29 percent more beef so far in 2017, compared with 2016. This rise has amounted to more than 140 million pounds of beef. The growth in U.S. beef exports has coincided with stronger domestic beef production and lower prices relative to recent years. An additional factor that influences U.S. trade, is the relative strength of the country’s dollar compared with its competitors. Between January and September 2017, the U.S. dollar depreciated by roughly 8 percent, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index. A depreciating dollar relative to a trading partner makes U.S. goods more attractive because more dollars can be purchased with the same amount of the partner’s currency. This chart appears in the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Newsletter, released in November 2017.

U.S. cattle dressed weights are down slightly in 2017, but remain above long term averages

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Seasonality of steer dressed weights are largely determined by biological factors and weather-related impacts on animal growth. Seasonally, steer weights tend to increase from the spring months, then decline from late fall into the early spring months. The long-term trend, which has been marked by sustained growth in dressed weights, is due to improvements in cattle genetics through selective breeding and the implementation of modern production systems. For steers, several factors interact to influence year-over-year changes in carcass weights including: producers’ responses to market prices of outputs and inputs (feed and feeder animals); weights and age at which animals are placed into feedlots; and animals’ biological responses to abnormal weather. Steer weights in 2017 are lower than a year ago, driven by aggressive marketing of slaughter-ready animals in feedlots, especially compared to a year ago. This is due to greater profit margins for retail meat packers than in 2016. Still, steer weights remain above their 10-year average, a period in which 2011-13 corn price averaged more than 6 dollars per bushel. This chart appears in the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter released in October 2017.

Deforestation due to agriculture in Brazil has generally declined over time

Monday, May 15, 2017

Increasing global population and demand for food have led to rising agricultural production and demand for land for farming purposes. Expanded agricultural land has often come from tropical deforestation in developing countries that have become major exporters of commodities like beef, soybeans, and palm oil. In Brazil, for example, deforestation is linked most closely with the production of beef in the Amazon basin and the Cerrado region. Historically, cattle account for over 80 percent of deforestation in the Amazon and 88 percent in the Cerrado. At its peak in 1995, beef accounted for 3.75 million hectares of deforestation in Brazil, compared to 0.71 million hectares in 2013. Deforestation due to soybean production has generally remained low, particularly in the Amazon. Soybean production has mostly increased by expanding onto previously cleared cropland or pasture, rather than by contributing directly to deforestation. In more recent years, higher yields and policy changes have contributed to a decline in deforestation rates in Brazil. This chart appears in the ERS report International Trade and Deforestation: Potential Policy Effects via a Global Economic Model, released April 2017.

Wholesale-to-retail price spread increases for U.S. choice beef

Thursday, September 1, 2016

The spread between farm prices and retail prices of U.S. choice beef has been rising in real terms since 2000 because of an increasing spread between wholesale and retail prices. The spread between wholesale and retail choice beef prices averaged 75.5 cents/lb during the 1990s, but averaged 93.7 cents/lb during 2009-13. The ERS price spread calculations standardize the farm, wholesale, and retail product values over time, so the expanding wholesale-to-retail spread suggests rising costs in that segment of the supply chain, rather than changes in product mix or quality at each price point. In contrast, the farm-to-wholesale price spread has tended to decline slightly since 2000. These trends in price spreads may arise from differences in cost inflation in key inputs in the farm-to-wholesale and wholesale-to-retail segments of the supply chain, differences in productivity growth in each segment, and changes in the degree of market competition in each segment. This chart is based on data from the Meat Price Spreads data product.

Grocery store prices for beef, pork, and eggs are up as U.S. supplies decrease

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Retail food-at-home prices in the second quarter of 2014 were 2.3 percent higher than a year ago, as most at-home food categories increased in price. Retail beef and veal prices were up 10.8 percent as the supply of beef is strained by historically low herd sizes. Over the same time period, pork prices increased 11.2 percent, partially the result of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus, which has reduced litter sizes and increased piglet mortality.? Egg prices are also up, in part due to increasing exports and a strong domestic demand for eggs and egg products. The increases in beef and veal, pork, and egg prices are the largest year-over-year increases since the fourth quarter of 2011. This chart appears in the Food Prices and Spending section of ERS?s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product, updated September 10, 2014.? More information on ERS?s food price forecasts can also be found in ERS?s Food Price Outlook data product.

U.S. cattle dressed weights reach record levels

Thursday, September 1, 2016

The average weight of cattle slaughtered in the United States is increasing in 2014, as rising prices for cattle and beef, coupled with declining feed costs, have induced growers to feed cattle for longer periods. The average dressed weight?the weight of the carcass minus ?feet, head, hide, and organs?of U.S. slaughtered cattle has been increasing in recent years, but rose sharply from 799 lbs/head to 822 lbs/head between September 2013 and September 2014. U.S. cattle and beef prices have set a number of successive record highs since mid-2013 because of declining cattle inventories resulting from drought-degraded pasture and forage conditions during 2010-12. ?With improved weather, cow-calf operators appear to be rebuilding herds by retaining heifers for breeding, adding upward pressure to cattle prices. Lower feed prices resulting from record U.S. corn and soybean crops are creating incentives to feed animals to higher weights. Also, as a direct result of placing fewer heifers in feed lots, there is a larger proportion of steers?which typically weigh more than heifers?in the slaughter mix, contributing to heavier average weights. ?Find additional analysis in Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: November 2014.

Lower ground beef prices reduce cost of home-grilled cheeseburgers by just over 6 percent from a year ago

Thursday, September 1, 2016

If cheeseburgers are on the menu for your July 4 barbecue, they will cost you less this year than last year. Thanks to lower prices for ground beef, bread, and tomatoes, the cost of a home-prepared cheeseburger was 6.3 percent lower in May 2016 compared with May 2015. In May 2016 (latest available prices), the ingredients for a quarter-pound cheeseburger totaled $1.72 per burger, with ground beef making up the largest cost at $0.93 and cheddar cheese accounting for $0.34. This same cheeseburger would have cost $1.83 to prepare in May 2015. Ground beef prices decreased 10.1 percent between May 2015 and May 2016, translating to a $0.10 per quarter-pound savings. Bread and tomato prices also decreased, bread prices fell 5.5 percent and tomato prices 2.6 percent. Cheddar cheese prices increased 1 percent from last May. Lettuce prices, on the other hand, were up 3.2 percent, but due the small piece of lettuce topping the cheeseburger, this translated into an increase of less than a cent per burger. More information on ERS?s food price forecasts can be found in ERS?s Food Price Outlook data product, updated June 24, 2016.

U.S. cattle imports on the rise as farmers rebuild inventories

Thursday, September 1, 2016

U.S. cattle imports have increased from both Canada and Mexico in 2014, totaling 1.413 million head through August. Imports are up 14 percent from Mexico and 12 percent from Canada due to stronger U.S. demand for feeder cattle. U.S producers are seeking to rebuild animal inventories reduced by several years of dry weather and take advantage of the low U.S. feed prices stemming from record 2014 U.S. corn and soybean harvests. U.S. feeder cattle demand is reflected in the sharp increase in the average price for Nebraska feeder steers (7-8 hundredweight [cwt]) from $149.45/cwt during the first three quarters of 2013 to $205.57/cwt during the same period of 2014.? Imports over the summer months, typically the slowest season, were well above last year?s levels, and there are indications that increased shipments continued into September 2014. U.S. cattle imports are now forecast at 2.200 million head in 2014 and 2.225 million head in 2015. Although both Canada and Mexico have relatively low cattle inventories, strong U.S. prices are expected to continue to pull cattle across the border. Find this chart and additional analysis in Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: October 2014.

India emerges as major beef exporter

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Since the late 2000s, India?s exports of beef?specifically water buffalo meat, also known as carabeef?have expanded rapidly, with India moving just ahead of Brazil to become the world?s largest exporter in 2014. India?s beef exports during the period have grown at an annual rate of about 12 percent, rising from an average volume of 0.31 million metric tons during 1999-2001 to an estimated 1.95 million during 2013-15. India?s robust export growth contributed to the expansion of world beef trade during this period and also increased the country?s share of the volume of shipments by major world beef exporters from just 5 percent during 1999-2001 to about 20 percent during 2013-15. The U.S. market share fluctuated during this period but declined from an average of 18 percent during 1999-2001 to 12 percent during 2013-15. This chart is from the ERS report, From Where the Buffalo Roam: India?s Beef Exports, released June 22, 2016.

Per capita availability of chicken higher than that of beef for a third year

Thursday, September 1, 2016

According to ERS's 2012 food availability data, the per capita supply of chicken available to eat in the United States continues to outpace that of beef. In 2012, 56.6 pounds of chicken per person on a boneless, edible basis were available for Americans to eat, compared to 54.5 pounds of beef. Although down from its peak of 60.9 pounds per person in 2006, chicken availability has been higher than that of beef for the past three years. Chicken began its upward climb in the 1940s, overtaking pork in 1996 as the second-most-consumed meat and overtaking beef for the No. 1 spot in 2010. Pork availability, which fluctuated between 49.9 and 46.6 pounds per person over the 1981 to 2009 period, dropped to 42.6 pounds per person in 2012. This chart is from the Summary Findings in ERS?s data product, the Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System.

Continued growth projected in China's meat imports

Thursday, September 1, 2016

While USDA projects robust increases in China?s meat production and imports of feed grains, China?s meat imports are also projected to rise. Pork imports are projected to show the most growth, rising from about 750,000 tons in 2013 to 1.2 million tons by 2023. The United States, Canada, and European Union are the main suppliers of pork to China. China?s meat consumption is expected to expand at a pace similar to the trend of the past decade. Pork will continue to play a central role in China?s meat economy (China accounts for half of world production and consumption), however, poultry is gaining in popularity, largely because it is cheaper than pork. Restaurants, fast food chains, and cafeterias play a key role in diversifying meat consumption, since many feature specific kinds of meat or chicken. Beef and mutton are important parts of popular ethnic cuisines becoming popular among the broader population.? Although China is expected to continue producing most of its own meat, China?s livestock sector is under pressure from rising costs, disease, environmental regulations, and resource constraints, which could lead to China?s meat imports rising even further if production cannot sustain its current pace of growth. Find this chart and more analysis in the April Amber Waves feature article "China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed."

Impact of 2012 drought on beef prices lower than expected

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Meat prices were expected to rise sharply in the wake of the 2012 drought, but this has not been the case. Higher feed prices, due in part to the 2012 drought, prompted ranchers to reduce herd sizes and send more animals to slaughterhouses than usual. This influx of livestock caused cattle prices, and in turn wholesale beef and veal prices, to increase less in 2012 than in 2011, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Producer Price Index (PPI). In 2012, the cattle PPI and wholesale beef and veal PPI increased by 8.6 and 10 percent, respectively, below the increases of 22.1 and 15 percent in 2011. While retail prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), track changes in the PPI, the swings are typically smaller. The beef and veal CPI rose by 6.4 percent in 2012 versus 10.2 percent in 2011. More information on food prices can be found in ERS?s Food Price Outlook data product, updated November 5, 2013.

Drought impacts help drive U.S. cattle and beef prices to record levels

Thursday, September 1, 2016

U.S. cattle and beef prices have moved into record territory since mid-2013, primarily due to drought impacts on U.S. cattle inventories. In addition to the widespread U.S. drought in 2012, drought conditions have affected important U.S. cattle raising regions, particularly in the Plains and Southwest, since 2010. The dry weather degraded pasture conditions and forage supplies, leading cow-calf operators to liquidate herds. Increases in U.S. imports of feeder cattle from Mexico and Canada have been insufficient to maintain or build U.S. inventories, in part because Mexican producers are trying to build their herds to supply more beef to the U.S. market. U.S. feed and forage supplies have improved in 2014, but herd rebuilding, as indicated by retention of heifers for breeding, is progressing slowly because some growers are selling animals while prices are high, rather than retaining them for herd rebuilding. Reduced beef supplies and high prices have? led to an estimated 5 percent decline in U.S. per capita beef disappearance (a measure of consumption), as well as a sharp reduction in U.S. net beef exports, between 2011 and 2014. Find additional analysis in Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: August 2014.

U.S. beef production is historically low, but expected to increase in 2016

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Historically small U.S. cattle inventory continues to support high beef prices in 2015, but at least in the short term, increasing imports of processing beef (especially from Australia) and heavy carcass weights have helped moderate some of the price pressures. Fed cattle live and dressed weights have remained significantly heavier than last year due in part to improvements in pasture conditions and extra time on feed as a result of reduced steer and heifer slaughter. One uncertainty is the extent to which feeding cattle to heavier weights will offset the decrease in slaughter numbers in 2015, and the ultimate effect this will have on total commercial beef production. Despite heavier cattle, U.S. commercial beef production is currently expected to fall to a multi-decade low of 24 billion pounds in 2015. U.S. beef production is expected to increase in 2016 due to a rising cattle inventory and continued heavier carcass weights. This chart is from Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2015.

Beef exports reached record high in 2011

Thursday, September 1, 2016

U.S. beef exports posted strong gains in 2011. Total beef exports were 2.79 billion pounds, 21 percent higher than the previous year's total. The strongest gains were to Russia (up 85 percent) South Korea (37 percent), Japan (30 percent), Canada (27 percent), and Hong Kong (21 percent). Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Korea were the top four export destinations for U.S. beef. Together, these countries imported 65 percent of total U.S. beef exports. U.S. beef exports for 2012 are forecast to decline slightly, to 2.76 billion pounds. This chart is found in Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-212, February 2012.

Farmer share of retail value of red meat is declining

Thursday, March 10, 2016

The spreads between farm prices for hogs and cattle and retail prices for pork and beef have widened over the past 18 months, leading to a decline in the farmer share of retail red meat prices. Growing cattle inventories and increased pork production are pushing cattle and hog prices lower. For the fourth quarter of 2015, hog prices (51-52% lean) averaged about $45 per hundredweight, down about 33 percent from a year earlier and nearly 50 percent below the prices received in the second quarter of 2014. Similarly, cattle prices (5-market steer price) averaged $128 per hundredweight in the last quarter of 2015, down nearly 23 percent from the fourth quarter 2014. Retail prices for both beef and pork are down as well, but by a smaller magnitude as they tend to adjust more slowly to changes in the farm price due to the wide variety of other costs—including labor, packaging, storage, and transportation—that also contribute to retail prices. This chart is based on the ERS Meat Price Spreads data product.

Chicken's popularity makes it the most consumed U.S. meat

Monday, January 25, 2016

In 2013, 57.7 pounds of chicken per person on a boneless, edible basis were available for Americans to eat, compared to 53.6 pounds of beef and 43.4 pounds of pork, according to ERS’s food availability data. From 1909 to the early 1940s, chicken availability had been around 10 pounds per person a year, while yearly per-person beef and pork availability had ranged from between 30 and 50 pounds. Chicken began its upward climb in the 1940s, as innovations in breeding, mass production, and processing made chicken more plentiful, affordable, and convenient for the dining-out market and for cooking at home. By 1996, chicken had overtaken pork as the second-most-consumed meat, and in 2010, chicken overtook beef for the No. 1 spot. Beef availability rose during the second half of the last century, peaking at 88.8 pounds per capita in 1976. Pork availability, which had fallen in 2010 and 2011, was up in 2012 and again in 2013. This chart appears in ERS’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials data product.

Wholesale beef prices turn sharply lower

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Beef prices typically experience a seasonal decline at the end of summer, but the decline in prices since August this year has been particularly steep, and the combination of abundant supplies and lower demand suggests cattle and beef prices could continue to decline. Cattle are remaining on feed longer and are currently being marketed at record-high weights, resulting in increased beef production this year despite the historically small cattle supplies. At the same time, beef demand is in the midst of its seasonal decline as attention shifts from grilling to roasting items. As a result, wholesale beef prices have declined steadily since late August, while the price premium that Choice beef typically receives over the Select grade is diminishing, reflecting current strong supplies of these higher graded cuts relative to previous periods. Adding to the market pressures, beef exports are down from this time last year due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and softening demand for U.S. beef, resulting in larger-than-anticipated volumes to be consumed in the domestic market and the expectation for continued downward pressure on prices in the near term. This chart is from the October Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry report.

U.S. poultry and eggs output has grown more rapidly than dairy and meat animals

Friday, October 23, 2015

Total U.S. livestock output grew 130 percent from 1948 to 2011, with the poultry and eggs subcategory growing much faster than meat animals (including cattle, hogs, and lamb) and dairy products. In 2011, the real value of total poultry and egg production was more than seven times its level in 1948, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 3 percent. The rapid growth of poultry production is due largely to changes in technology—advances in genetics, feed formulations, housing, and practices—and increased consumer demand. Retail prices of poultry fell in the late 1970’s and 1980’s, relative to beef and pork prices, leading to expanded poultry consumption in that period. Increased domestic consumption and exports were also driven by consumer response to an expanding range of new poultry products, as the industry moved away from a reliance on whole birds and produc­tion shifted to cut-up parts and processed products such as boneless chicken, breaded nuggets/tenders, and chicken sausages. This chart is found in the ERS report, Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States: Measurement, Trends, and Drivers, July 2015.

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