ERS Charts of Note
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Wednesday, November 29, 2023
The 2018 spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China had reverberations in the global pork market. ASF—a virus often fatal to swine—caused an estimated loss of 27.9 million metric tons in China’s pork output from late 2018 to early 2021 and led to a doubling of China’s domestic pork prices. These high prices attracted a surge of pork exports from four major suppliers—the European Union (EU), United States, Brazil, and Canada. While the EU was the top supplier, U.S. pork exports were sizable and reached a record high of more than 287,000 metric tons in the second quarter of 2020. After surging, exports by all suppliers began declining during 2021 as China’s domestic production rebounded and associated prices plummeted. According to a recent report from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), pork exports to China might have increased even more during the ASF outbreak if not for several factors. Specifically, China banned pork from some EU countries that also had ASF outbreaks. In addition, U.S. pork faced high retaliatory tariffs because of trade tensions, and China rejected some Canadian pork shipments. Also, during the COVID-19 pandemic, China launched stringent inspections of foreign meat suppliers and required decontamination of meat at Chinese ports. In aggregate, pork imports replaced about an estimated one-fifth of the domestic pork supplies lost in China during the ASF epidemic. Official data indicate that China’s pork production returned to its pre-ASF level in 2021. While exports to China are down from their peak, China is still one of the top 3 overseas markets for U.S. pork, with sales in the first 6 months of 2023 exceeding annual totals posted in years before ASF hit China. This chart first appeared in the ERS report How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets, published November 2023.
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
After reaching historic highs in May 2022, U.S. and global wheat prices have since cooled as supply concerns for many key wheat exporters have abated. Wheat export prices for the United States, Russia, and France in July 2023 are all well below the peaks observed in May 2022 as an effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ample wheat supplies expected in the 2023/24 marketing year (July–June) in the European Union, of which France is a member, and Russia are contributing to low prices for those exporters. Markets recently reacted to the July 17 expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had sustained Ukraine’s exports through the Black Sea for nearly a year. Russia’s subsequent attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure were further reflected in global wheat prices. However, Ukraine is expected to continue shipping some commodities via alternative routes, so price changes were relatively minimal compared with more extreme swings at the start of the conflict. Prices for other suppliers, such as France, were up slightly from May 2023 but 27 percent lower than in July 2022. U.S. hard red winter wheat export prices decreased 10 percent in July 2023 from July 2022 and were 34 percent lower from May 2022. Even so, they are higher compared with other key exporters, partly driven by ongoing drought in major U.S. growing regions. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Wheat Outlook, August 2023.
Thursday, July 27, 2023
China has been the world’s largest meat importer since 2019. Despite recent reductions in imported meat volumes, the country remains in the top spot. In 2022, China imported 43 percent more than the second largest meat-importing country, Japan. Issues such as disease, tougher laws addressing environmental issues, and an exodus of small-scale farmers have constrained China’s meat supply, boosting domestic prices and incentives to import. As China’s most consumed meat, pork tends to dominate its meat supply and demand. China surpassed Japan to become the top meat importer after an African swine fever epidemic sharply reduced China’s pork supply in 2019. Pork output rebounded and meat imports dropped, but China remained the top meat importer in 2022. Meanwhile, beef imports have been on the rise. Longer beef production cycles, lack of grazing land, and chronic disease have constrained China’s cattle production, preventing it from meeting domestic demand. Poultry consumption also is rising, as chicken tends to be the least expensive meat for consumers to purchase, but rising feed costs and disease have increased domestic prices and boosted poultry imports. China’s meat consumption showed signs of peaking after 2014, but statistical model projections show that consumption will continue to grow through 2031 based on trends such as dietary change and moderate growth in Chinese income and prices. In the short term, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and resulting economic slowdown in China weakened consumption and associated import prospects during 2022. In addition, factors such as ongoing disease risks and high feed costs—which reduce profitability for China’s livestock producers—continue to play a role in the market. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Report, China’s Meat Consumption: Growth Potential, released in July 2023.
Tuesday, April 4, 2023
The United Kingdom (U.K.) is the world’s fifth-largest importer of agricultural and related goods and a large market for U.S. products. The U.K. imported $78.2 billion in agricultural and related goods in 2021 and exported $31.9 billion, less than half the value of imports. Historically, the European Union has been the largest trading partner with the U.K., but the U.K.’s formal departure from the European single market, known as “Brexit,” will likely impact the UK’s trade dynamics as the country seeks to diversify trading partners. An estimated two-thirds of agricultural goods imported by the U.K. in 2021 were high-value, consumer-oriented products, such as distilled spirits, dairy products, and processed seafood products. Imports of agricultural-related products, namely forest products (primarily wood pellets used for power generation), have reached double-digit growth in recent years. Forest products were the largest single commodity group imported into the U.K. from the global market in 2021 at $9.66 billion, with the United States the top country-level supplier at $1.33 billion. The United States also exported about $1.12 million in alcoholic beverages to the U.K. in 2021. On the other side of trade, the U.K. is a top supplier of alcoholic beverages (primarily distilled spirits) to the United States, although its share has given way to larger, more efficient producers such as France in recent years. Agreements between the U.K. and the United States in 2022 to allow for the export of British beef and lamb to the United States for the first time since the 1990s are expected to generate $50 million in trade over the next 5 years based on British estimates. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report, United Kingdom Agricultural Production and Trade Policy Post-Brexit, February 2023.
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Ukraine’s corn and wheat exports have almost returned to seasonal-average levels since summer 2022, when Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative to reopen Black Sea routes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to elevated security risks and infrastructure damage, causing Ukraine’s seaports to be almost completely cut off from March through July. The restrictions limited exports and led to an accumulation of corn and wheat stocks. As global exportable supplies diminished, international wheat export prices spiked. Signed in July 2022, the Black Sea agreement enabled the safe passage of Ukraine grain exports through three ports. That and ample corn and wheat stocks allowed Ukraine to export a larger combined volume of the two crops than the five-year average in September and October. In December, Ukraine was able to export more than 3.0 million metric tons of corn, the largest since the beginning of the war, and 1.6 million metric tons of wheat. The Black Sea Grain Initiative has increased the opportunities for Ukrainian grain to leave the country and has relieved some price pressures internationally, but uncertainty remains as the agreement is set to expire in mid-March 2023 and may not be extended. This chart was drawn from “Feature Article: Changes in Ukraine Wheat and Corn Export Patterns Since the Start of the Ukraine-Russia War,” which appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service’s Wheat Outlook: January 2023.
Monday, December 12, 2022
Increasing incomes, populations, and urbanization in Africa have generated new agricultural investment opportunities for foreign firms. Foreign direct investments (FDI) in the food and beverage sector are one mechanism to build and extend Africa’s agricultural value chains, the processes connecting food production, delivery, and the consumer. A key type of these investments is greenfield FDI, which are investments made by a foreign firm to start a new venture or subsidiary in another country. From 2016 to 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, United States, and Belgium were the largest sources of greenfield FDI in the food and beverage sector in Africa. U.S. food and beverage greenfield FDI has been consistent over time, ranging between $1.5 to $2 billion during each 5-year period from 2006 through 2020. Investments made by companies in Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and Lebanon from 2016 to 2020 were also sizable, followed by Singapore and the United Kingdom. Notably, China’s greenfield FDI activity in this sector was relatively small, reaching just under $500 million in 2016 to 2020. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service report Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Tuesday, September 6, 2022
At the start of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global projections indicated the number of people experiencing food insecurity would increase due to the pandemic. In a recent USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) study, researchers used World Bank household survey data collected during the pandemic to assess how real-life experiences with food insecurity changed during the first year of the pandemic in four sub-Saharan Africa countries. Researchers tracked three levels of food insecurity intensity—mild, moderate, and severe—based on household responses to the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, which poses eight questions on a household’s experience with food security. They observed a sharp increase in reported food insecurity in the early months of the pandemic. In Ethiopia and Nigeria, two countries in which data were available from the early months of the pandemic, the rate of moderate food insecurity reported by households increased from about zero to between 30 and 70 percent by June 2020. In Burkina Faso and Malawi, where data was available beyond 2020, researchers observed gradual declines in food insecurity. At the end of June 2021, about 15 percent of households in Burkina Faso still reported moderate food insecurity, as did about 50 percent of Malawi households. This chart appeared in the ERS COVID-19 Working Paper: Food Insecurity During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Four African Countries, published in July 2022. For further reading, see USDA ERS - Mali’s Rural-Urban Gap in Food Security Vanished Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic.
Wednesday, August 31, 2022
China’s position as the top global cotton importer is weakening as cotton shipments flow into flourishing textile industries in competing countries. Soon after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the nation’s textile manufacturers became the world’s leading importers of cotton. Following years of rising production costs, volatility from government intervention in the market, and government caps on the volume of imports, China’s cotton imports dropped from their peak of 24.5 million bales in 2011 to 4.4 million bales in 2015, before rebounding to 9.5 million bales in 2021. Meanwhile, competing countries, including Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey, expanded their textile industries and boosted cotton imports over the same period. These countries’ combined imports now exceed China’s volume of cotton imports. This increasing geographic diversification of global cotton demand has helped U.S. cotton exports to remain relatively robust despite volatility in China’s imports over the past decade. Growth in textile production outside of China supports the USDA projection that U.S. cotton exports will rise by about 1.4 million bales between 2021–30. USDA also projects that combined cotton imports by Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey will rise by 8.1 million bales from 2021 to 2030 while China’s imports will rise by a more modest 3.5 million bales. In 2030, China is forecast to account for 24 percent of total global cotton imports, while the other five destinations are projected to account for 47 percent of world cotton imports. This chart is drawn from the USDA Economic Research Service report, China Cotton: Textiles, Imports, and Xinjiang, published August 2022.
Thursday, August 11, 2022
Most sub-Saharan African countries derive almost all export revenue and foreign exchange from high-value commodities such as oil. When the price of oil drops significantly, commodity-dependent countries’ foreign exchange reserves are diminished. When this occurs, countries that would normally import higher volumes of agricultural commodities such as wheat or poultry instead seek cheaper, alternative sources of agricultural goods. Africa’s two largest oil-producing countries, Nigeria and Angola, are particularly sensitive to changes in the price of oil. For instance, in the two years after oil prices dropped in 2014, U.S. exports of wheat to Nigeria and poultry to Angola fell from the previous year by an average of 37 percent and 40 percent, respectively. More recently, the onset of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a decline in oil prices of 42 percent—the second-greatest drop in oil prices since World War II. This drop in oil prices led to a 34-percent decline in U.S. wheat exports to Nigeria and a 46-percent decline in U.S. poultry exports to Angola. Such volatility has consequences on economic development and can compound food insecurity. This chart first appeared in USDA’s Economic Research Service COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa, released in May 2022.
Tuesday, June 28, 2022
Sub-Saharan Africa is a major influencer in global agricultural trends. Rising incomes, growing populations, and increasing urbanization position the region as a growing market for agricultural exports. Dietary patterns in many areas of this region have shifted with the rise in per-capita incomes as consumers increasingly favor more grain- and protein-rich diets over traditional staple foods. Agricultural production in this 46-country region is largely limited to subsistence farming, so many countries rely on imports to meet growing demand for agricultural and food products. The United States has emerged as a major supplier of agricultural exports to sub-Saharan Africa, particularly wheat and poultry. In 2001, the United States exported less than $0.5 billion in agricultural goods to the region. In 2019, $2.1 billion in U.S. agricultural exports—an estimated 1.5 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports—were shipped to sub-Saharan African countries. More than half that value was accounted for by Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, and Ethiopia. As economic development trends observed in these four countries continue to take shape in other markets, the outlook for U.S. export growth is strong. This chart first appeared in USDA’s Economic Research Service COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa, released in May 2022.
Friday, September 17, 2021
China is the world’s largest consumer of wheat, accounting for 19 percent of global wheat consumption in marketing year 2020/21 (July–June), more than four times the U.S. share. China also became a leading importer during 2020/21, with purchases estimated at 10.6 million metric tons, China’s highest import total since the 1990s. USDA forecasts China’s 2021/22 imports at 10 million metric tons. Before the 2010/11 marketing year, China’s wheat imports typically totaled 1 million metric tons or less. More recently, wheat imports totaled 3 to 5 million metric tons most years between marketing years 2011/12 to 2019/20. The surge in imports in 2020/21 can be attributed to China’s strong demand for wheat use in animal feed, replenishment of the Chinese Government reserves with high-quality wheat, and efforts to meet import commitments in the U.S.-China Phase One trade agreement. According to China’s customs data, the United States supplied 3 million metric tons of 2020/21 wheat imports—approximately a 28-percent share. This chart first appeared in the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) report, Potential Wheat Demand in China: Applicants for Import Quota, August 2021, and includes updated data from ERS’ Wheat Data product.
Friday, April 30, 2021
The intensity of global food insecurity, indicated by a measure called the food gap, is projected to lessen over the coming decade in the world’s poorest regions, even amid decreased incomes associated with pandemic-related drops in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The food gap measures how much food is needed to raise consumption at every income level to meet the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per capita per day, a minimum intake to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle. For the four regions studied in the USDA, Economic Research Service International Food Security Assessment (IFSA), the food gap in 2020 ranged from a low of 12 percent of the daily caloric target in North Africa to 20 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Asia, income effects related to the Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic are estimated to have increased the food gap’s share of the daily caloric target in 2020 by more than 1 percent, the most of any region. The least impacted region was North Africa, where that share is estimated to have increased by about half a percent. Despite lower economic growth prospects for the IFSA regions associated with the pandemic, the food gap is projected to narrow by 2030. Income growth, along with relatively stable prices for major grains and lower population growth, are contributing factors to this improvement; however, the gap is 12 percent higher than earlier estimates reported by USDA after pandemic-related revisions. This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service COVID-19 Working Paper, International Food Security Assessment 2020–30: COVID-19 Update and Impacts on Food Insecurity.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Brazil has emerged as a major competitor for the United States in global agricultural markets, and is now the world’s third largest exporter of agricultural products behind the European Union (EU) and the United States. Brazil’s macroeconomic policies—currency devaluation, in particular—have played an important role in its position as one of the top exporters of agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, cotton, sugar, coffee, orange juice, and meat. Because exported Brazilian commodities are priced in dollars, depreciation of Brazil’s local currency, the real (BRL), has meant that Brazilian farmers have received more BRL for each dollar of export revenues. Export sales therefore have become more profitable, thus encouraging expansion of cropland and adoption of techniques to increase productivity. Brazilian agricultural production and exports, which are poised to continue flourishing over the next decade, according to the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029 report, could grow even faster under accelerated currency depreciation. Simulations show that if the BRL weakens more than previously expected, exports of major commodities could be an aggregate 5.6 percent greater than previously projected, with Brazil’s exports increasing for each major commodity except beef and soybean meal. This chart is drawn from Economic Research Service (ERS) report, Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Recent Growth and Future Impacts Under Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions, and was highlighted in the ERS October issue of Amber Waves, in the feature article, “Brazil’s Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions Determine Agricultural Competitiveness and Future Growth.”
Monday, March 9, 2020
Sugar production in the United States and globally is dependent upon two crops: sugarbeets, grown in higher, typically colder latitudes; and sugarcane, which grows in lower, typically more tropical latitudes. Poor weather conditions have diminished the production outlook for both the U.S. sugarbeet crop—particularly in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana—and the sugarcane crop, especially in Louisiana. Sugar output is also expected to be significantly lower for 2019/20 in Mexico—the United States’ largest foreign sugar supplier—as drought conditions in several key sugarcane-producing regions are expected to reduce output considerably. The combined 2019/20 U.S. and Mexican sugar production is projected to be 9.7 percent below that in 2018/19, the lowest collective output since 2011/12. The reduced supply expectations are the main reason why the U.S. sugar market is forecast to be at its tightest since 2010/11, and why current U.S. wholesale refined sugar prices are 19 percent higher for cane sugar and 26 percent higher for beet sugar compared with a year ago. This chart is based on information in the Economic Research Service Sugar and Sweeteners Monthly Outlook Report and the Sugar and Sweetener Yearbook Tables.
Monday, January 27, 2020
For 2019, increased imports are expected in many non-cotton-producing countries, as well as some producing ones. Although China—a major producer—is projected as the leading importer in 2019, its upcoming imports are expected to be below those from a year ago, as cotton mill use in China is forecast to decline for the second consecutive year. In contrast, all other major importers are anticipated to secure additional imports this year. For Bangladesh and Vietnam, higher cotton imports are seen as supporting the recent textile and apparel industry expansion. At the same time, a 3-decade-low production forecast for Pakistan in 2019 is expected to result in record-high cotton imports to help sustain its spinning industry. Meanwhile, higher imports are also forecast for Turkey and others in 2019. In fact, global cotton imports are forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to rise for the fourth consecutive year in 2019 to 43.8 million bales, nearly 4 percent (1.6 million bales) above last year’s volume. The growing trend is significant for the United States, as more than 80 percent of U.S. cotton production is exported to numerous countries around the world, with the U.S. share of 2019 global trade forecast at 38 percent. The 2019 global import forecast would be its highest since 2012’s record of 47.6 million bales. This chart is based on data in the ERS Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables, released in January 2020.
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Former Soviet Union countries, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan experienced significant contractions in meat production in the 1990s and early 2000s. This trend reversed since 2005, with meat production over 70 percent greater in 2011-15 than the low point in 2001-05. The move from a centrally planned to a market based economy in the 1990s upended the growth of the livestock sector. Because of severe financial constraints, the large budget subsidies to agriculture—and especially the previously favored livestock sector—were mostly terminated, which led to reduced production. Aided by renewed subsidies and other policies beneficial to the industry, the livestock sector in these countries rebounded. From 2000 to 2015, average annual meat production rose in Kazakhstan (39 percent), Russia (116 percent), and Ukraine (50 percent). This chart appears in the ERS report Changing Crop Area in the Former Soviet Union Region released in February 2017.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
The 2016 U.S. cotton crop is expected to reach 15.8 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds), 23 percent larger than the 2015 crop, reflecting a 17-percent increase in acreage, lower abandonment and higher yields compared to last year. Globally, cotton production is projected to reach 102.5 million bales in 2016, up 5 percent from last year. Global cotton production is concentrated among a small number of countries, with India and China accounting for nearly half of world production and the top five producers expected to supply 77 percent of the world’s cotton this year. Production in most countries is expected to increase at least modestly this year, with the exception of China, where production is expected to fall 4.5 percent to 21.4 million bales as acreage there falls to historically low levels. Given the large increase in U.S. production, the U.S. share of global supply is expected to increase from 13.2 percent in 2015 to 15.4 percent in 2016, compared to a 27-percent share supplied by India and 21 percent by China. This chart is from the ERS report Cotton and Wool Outlook report, July 2016.
Monday, June 27, 2016
Since the late 2000s, India’s exports of beef—specifically water buffalo meat, also known as carabeef—have expanded rapidly, with India moving just ahead of Brazil to become the world’s largest exporter in 2014. India’s beef exports during the period have grown at an annual rate of about 12 percent, rising from an average volume of 0.31 million metric tons during 1999-2001 to an estimated 1.95 million during 2013-15. India’s robust export growth contributed to the expansion of world beef trade during this period and also increased the country’s share of the volume of shipments by major world beef exporters from just 5 percent during 1999-2001 to about 20 percent during 2013-15. The U.S. market share fluctuated during this period but declined from an average of 18 percent during 1999-2001 to 12 percent during 2013-15. This chart is from the ERS report, From Where the Buffalo Roam: India’s Beef Exports, released June 22, 2016.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Domestic deliveries of sugar and high-fructose corn syrup in Mexico—a useful indicator of human consumption—rebounded in the most recent marketing year (October/September) after declining about 6.5 percent the previous year. In January 2014, Mexico imposed a tax of one peso per liter on soft drinks in an effort to curb obesity by reducing consumption, and this is believed to be at least partially behind the reduction in sweetener deliveries observed during the 2013/14 marketing year. From October 2014 through September 2015, sweetener use by Mexican food processors returned to levels equivalent to just before the tax was imposed. Food consumption patterns change slowly and reflect many factors, so time and additional research is needed to fully understand the effect of Mexico’s soft-drink tax. This chart is based on the February 2016 Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook.
Monday, February 22, 2016
China’s livestock industry has expanded rapidly in recent years as diets shift toward more animal proteins. China is now the world’s largest producer of livestock products and the largest manufacturer of animal feed. Commercial feed production grew from just 5 million metric tons (mmt) in 1982 to 198 mmt in 2014. The industry’s growth paralleled that of meat and egg production, which grew from about 15 mmt annually in the early 1980s to 114 mmt in 2014. China’s surge in feed output for swine after 2007 reflects the Government’s emphasis on modernizing hog production and the substitution of commercial feed for locally procured materials. Feed produced for poultry grew steadily from 1990 to 2012 as feed companies promoted vertical coordination in poultry production beginning in the 1990s. Feed production for egg-laying poultry, aquaculture, cattle, and sheep also grew rapidly during 2004-2012. The growth of China’s commercial feed industry has increased its need for imported feed ingredients, making it a leading market for U.S. soybeans, sorghum, barley, and other commodities. This chart is from Development of China’s Feed Industry and Demand for Imported Commodities.