ERS Charts of Note
Subscribe to get highlights from our current and past research, Monday through Friday, or see our privacy policy.
Get the latest charts via email, or on our mobile app for 
and 
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are codes assigned to batches of renewable fuel used to administer the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which specifies minimum annual levels of U.S. biofuel consumption. Obligated parties under the RFS use RINs to report qualifying biofuel use to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to demonstrate compliance with their annual RFS requirements. After many years of relatively low prices for conventional ethanol RINs, those prices have recently risen sharply because RFS ethanol mandates now exceed ethanol use. This result reflects declining gasoline use and technical constraints on blending more than 10 percent ethanol in U.S. gasoline—the so-called E10 blend wall. The gap between ethanol mandates and ethanol use, together with the anticipated depletion of excess RINs from prior years, are driving up RIN prices. Additional factors that may be affecting RIN prices include uncertainties regarding potential regulatory and legislative actions. This chart appears in “High RIN Prices Signal Constraints to U.S. Ethanol Expansion,” in Feed Outlook: April 2013 (pages 18-22).
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Farm-level commodity prices are far more volatile than food prices, as costs for marketing inputs such as packaging, processing, and transportation mitigate commodity price volatility on supermarket shelves and restaurant menus. Corn, wheat, and soybeans are the three most important field crops to the U.S. food supply. The average farm price of these crops, weighted by total production, regularly rises or falls by over 10 percent from year to year. On average, food prices have become less volatile in recent decades, as food price inflation averaged 8 percent per year in the 1970s, but only 2.8 percent per year since 1990. Commodity prices, alternatively, have grown somewhat more volatile over time. However, large changes in major commodity prices have relatively small impacts on food prices. In 2007-08, the average production-weighted price of these crops increased by 50 percent, while food prices rose 5.5 percent. Similarly, in 2010-11, the crop prices rose 31 percent and food prices increased 3.7 percent. This chart appears in the Food Price Outlook topic page on the ERS website, updated April 17, 2013.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Several years of poor weather during the U.S. growing season have resulted in below-trend corn yields for the last 3 years. Thus, assessing the effects of weather on recent yields is important for determining underlying trend yields for these crops as well as expected yields for the 2013 season. A weather-adjusted yield model was developed for corn to provide this information. Weather effects on corn yields were examined over the past 25 years. Measured effects of weather were then netted out to derive a weather-adjusted U.S. corn yield projection for 2013. The resulting mean expected yield for corn is 163.6 bushels per acre. Higher or lower corn yields could result for different realized weather during the upcoming growing season. This chart is from Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields PDF icon (16x16), February 2013.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 632 million bushels, down 36 percent from ending stocks for the 2011/12 marketing year and the lowest since 1995/96. Subsequent to the 2009/10 season, ending stocks have demonstrated an annual decline attributable to the combination of sustained strong demand for corn from feed, ethanol, and export markets and, particularly in 2012/13, adverse weather conditions that hindered production. Sustained demand and drought-reduced output have pushed prices upward. At $7.10 per bushel, the forecast 2012/13 season-average farm price is the highest on record and is a reflection of very tight corn supplies. Starting in 2010/11, the correlation between declining ending stocks and increasing corn prices has become especially strong, underscoring the linkages between corn availability and demand. This chart appears in Feed Grain Chart Gallery, March 2013.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Stocks of all U.S. hay stored on farms totaled 76.5 million tons on December 1, 2012, down sharply from a year ago because of the effects of the 2012 U.S. drought. When measured relative to the demand for hay, by converting livestock inventories into roughage consuming animal units (RCAU), 2012 hay stocks were the lowest since 1984. The drought-reduced 2012 commercial hay harvest, coupled with diminished availability of forage on pasturelands, led to the drawdown of onfarm hay stocks. The decline in hay supplies is partially compensated by record production of silage, as growers facing poor grain yields chose to convert their corn and sorghum crops to silage. Also, to assist livestock producers affected by the prolonged drought of 2012, a record 2.8 million acres of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land was opened to haying and grazing. This chart appears in Feed Outlook, FDS-13a, January 2013.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Although the United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter, exports by major U.S. competitors have gained increasing shares of the world market since the mid-2000s. The decline in U.S. corn market share has corresponded with the increased use of corn to produce ethanol in the United States, while sustained, relatively strong corn prices have sparked more production in competitor countries. In 2012/13, U.S. exports are forecast to slip to 26.0 million tons, the lowest since 1971/72, because of drought damage to the U.S. corn harvest. In 2012/13, production prospects have improved in Brazil and Argentina, the largest U.S. competitors. Brazil has been exporting corn at a record pace because tight soybean supplies have allowed a shift of port capacity to corn. Argentina’s corn exports are expected to increase following the March 2013 corn harvest, and are now forecast at a record 19.5 million tons. Ukraine’s corn export prospects remain strong for 2012/13, following the sharp increase in exports in 2011/12. India’s exports, fueled largely by increased adoption of hybrid corn, are also forecast to remain strong in the current price environment. This chart is adapted from the Feed Grain Chart Gallery published with Feed Outlook: January 2013, FDS-13a.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
World coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 were projected higher in December, mostly due to a large record corn crop reported for China. USDA projects China’s corn crop at 208.0 million tons, up 8.0 million tons from the previous forecast. With this revision, China’s 2012/13 corn crop is projected to exceed the previous year’s record by 8 percent. The record crop, also forecast by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is supported by economic information, weather data, and satellite imagery. NBS reported a record 34.95 million hectares of corn harvested in 2012/13, a 4-percent increase from the previous year. Price conditions at planting favored corn over alternative crops, especially soybeans or cotton, and favorable growing conditions limited crop losses. Corn area expansion has been strongest in the two northernmost provinces, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, and temperature and rainfall conditions were favorable in these regions. This chart appears in ERS’s Feed Outlook: December 2012, FDS-12l.
Friday, December 14, 2012
The United States is the world’s largest corn exporter, but U.S. corn exports have generally been declining since 2007. Lower U.S. corn production in the last few years and greater use of U.S. corn for ethanol production have contributed to the smaller exportable surpluses, while higher world prices have encouraged foreign exporters to grow more corn for export. For marketing year 2012/13, the drought-reduced corn harvest is expected to further reduce U.S. corn exports to 1.2 billion bushels, the lowest since 1974/75. Domestic feed and residual use of corn is also expected to fall in 2012/13 as livestock and poultry producers respond to higher feed prices by feeding fewer animals for shorter periods. U.S. corn use for ethanol is expected to decline about 10 percent to 4.5 billion bushels as supplies tighten, prices rise, and U.S. motor fuel use declines. In spite of the decline, the share of U.S. corn used to produce ethanol is expected to remain steady at about 40 percent. This chart appears in ERS’s December 2012 Feed Outlook report.
Friday, October 5, 2012
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), initiated in 1994, has provided much of the legal framework for a tremendous expansion in U.S. corn exports to Mexico. Compared with their average annual volume during the decade prior to NAFTA (1984-93), these exports have more than quadrupled. The export volume for 2011, 10.6 million metric tons, included 8.6 million metric tons of conventional corn, 1.8 million metric tons of DDGS, and 240,000 metric tons of cracked corn, which consists of broken or ground kernels and is used as animal feed. U.S. corn exports (including cracked corn and DDGS) to Mexico accounted for 32 percent of Mexico's supply during 2007-11, compared with 14 percent during 1984-93. Yellow corn, used primarily as animal feed or to manufacture starch, makes up the bulk of U.S. corn exports to Mexico. White corn, used mainly to make tortillas and other corn-based foods, accounted for about 4 percent of these exports during 2007-11. This chart is an update of one found in NAFTA at 17: Full Implementation Leads to Increased Trade and Integration, WRS-11-01, March 2011.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
As described in Charts of Note on July 19, 2012, the 2012 U.S. corn crop was planted earlier than usual due to relatively mild winter weather. Early planting can lead to early harvest, which can affect the supply and demand corn balance sheet in both the old and new crop marketing years. This chart shows the amount and share of total corn production harvested before September 1st since 1990, as well as forecasts for 2012. Early harvest is forecast at nearly 11 percent of the 2012 crop, and estimates of feed and residual use for 2011/12 have been lowered 150 million bushels based on the record level of crop maturity and harvest progress. Early new-crop corn use is expected to displace some use of 2011 old-crop corn and boost old-crop inventories. This chart comes from Feed Outlook, FDS-12i, September 2012.
China has become a significant export market for U.S. DDGS, a co-product of the corn ethanol process
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
The expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the United States yields a large volume of residual co-products called distillers dried grain with solubles (DDGS). Approximately 75 percent of DDGS are utilized in the domestic U.S. market, but Chinese importers seeking raw materials for animal feed have emerged as a significant export market. High feed prices and favorable tax treatment within China stimulated a surge of imports of U.S. DDGS during 2009-11. China's potential demand for U.S. DDGS depends on various factors that include the price of corn, Chinese policy, and the availability and price of other substitute feed ingredients, such as the byproducts of grain processing in China (residual products from alcohol production). Demand is robust, but slower growth in the U.S. supply of DDGS and uncertainties about Chinese policy may constrain growth in exports to China. This chart is found in China's Market for Distillers Dried Grains and the Key Influences on Its Longer Run Potential, FDS-12g-01, August 2012.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Based on crop conditions as of August 1st, the National Agricultural Statistical Service forecast U.S. 2012/13 corn yields 22.6 bushels per acre lower at 123.4 bushels, compared with last month's forecast of 146 bushels. As forecast, the 2012/13 corn yield would be the lowest since 1995/96. The yield reduction, combined with a decrease of 1.5 million in expected harvested acres, results in a crop of 10,779 million bushels, which is 2,191 million bushels lower than July's projection and 1,580 million below last season. This forecast would result in the lowest production since 2006/07. Unusually high temperatures and well below average precipitation across much of the Corn Belt in July sharply reduced yield prospects, despite the early planted crop. As of August 5th, only 23 percent of the corn crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition in the 18 major corn-producing States, down 37 percentage points from a year ago. Fifty percent of the crop was in the very poor-to-poor range, compared with 48 percent the previous week and 16 percent at this point last season. This chart comes from Feed Outlook, FDS-12h, August 2012.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Feed use of corn is estimated by USDA in the "feed and residual use" accounting category, which is used to balance corn supply and demand. Feed and residual use is equal to total supply minus all other (non-feed-and-residual) uses minus ending stocks. The price of corn is one factor that can affect feed and residual use. Economic theory suggests that feed use of feed grains would decrease if the price of corn rose. This chart shows historical data for total feed grains feed and residual use and the real corn price, and a general negative relationship is illustrated. This chart is found in Implications of an Early Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates, FDS-12f-01, July 2012.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Historically, the correlation between agricultural prices and energy prices was weak and primarily reflected the role of energy as an input in agricultural production. However, the growing use of corn to produce energy has strengthened the link between these two markets. A recent study by an ERS economist found that price relationships between the U.S. corn and gasoline markets strengthened significantly after March 2008 and continue to be highly correlated. From March 2008 to March 2011, ethanol supply and demand accounted for about 23 percent of the variation in the price of corn, while corn market conditions accounted for about 27 percent of ethanol's price variation. At the same time, about 16 and 17 percent of gasoline price variation can be attributed to shocks to ethanol and corn markets, respectively. The impacts of corn and ethanol prices on gasoline price volatility are surprisingly large given that ethanol is only a small portion of the overall energy market. This chart appeared in the June 2012 issue of Amber Waves magazine.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
With relatively mild weather this past winter across much of the United States, prospects were favorable for the 2012 U.S. corn crop to be planted early this year. Planting progress data for corn indicated an advanced pace through much of the spring. This chart shows that corn plantings as of mid- April and late April 2012 were ahead of the typical pace. As a result, prospects also may be good for an early harvest, with the possibility of a higher than typical portion of the 2012 crop being harvested before September 1, the start of the official 2012/13 U.S. corn marketing year. An early harvest of new-crop corn has potential implications for non-feed-and-residual usage, ending stocks, and the derivation of feed and residual usage of corn for the old marketing year, as well as for available supplies in the first quarter of the new marketing year. This chart is found in Implications of an Early Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates, FDS-12f-01, July 2012.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
World coarse grain production in 2012/13 is forecast to increase more than 7 percent to a record 1,228 million tons, boosted by record corn crops by the United States and major foreign producers. The U.S. corn harvest outlook is strengthened by the combination of a 75-year high in intended plantings and prospects for above trend yields. Foreign producers, including China, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are also expected to respond to the sustained high coarse grain prices of recent years with production of record corn crops. Foreign coarse grain harvested area in 2012/13 is projected up 2 percent due to higher prices, while forecast yields are based on trends until more information becomes available on weather conditions. Although both U.S. and foreign coarse grain consumption are also projected higher on improving demand and ample supplies, the record harvests enhance chances for lower prices and higher stocks in 2012/13. This chart comes from Feed Outlook, FDS-12e, May 2012.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
As of May 6, 2012, 71 percent of the 2012 U.S. corn crop had been planted, compared with an average of 47 percent between 2007 and 2011 and 32 percent in 2011. As of the same date, 32 percent of the expected crop had emerged, compared with a 2007-11 average of 13 percent and 6 percent last year. Subsequent Crop Progress reports showed the pace continuing at an advanced rate with 96 percent planted as of May 20th compared to a 2007-11 average of 81 percent. Early planting boosts the projected yield for 2012 above the yield trend (which is based on actual yields from 1990 to 2010) to 166.0 bushels per acre, compared with last year's weather-reduced yield of 147.2 bushels per acre. Rapid planting and emergence could also lead to an early harvest of some of the 2012 corn crop, potentially reducing estimates of feed and residual disappearance for the last quarter (June-August) of the 2011/12 marketing year. This chart comes from Feed Outlook, FDS-12e, May 2012.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Since 1980, the variation in cropland used for crops has been relatively small, despite significant variation in real (adjusted for inflation) commodity prices. Between 1980 and 2002, the real prices of major commodities (e.g., corn, soybeans, wheat) declined by over 60 percent, while total cropland used for crops dropped by about 6 percent. This relatively small reduction in cropland use may reflect changes in farm legislation in the 1980s and 1990s, which marked a shift toward greater market orientation with the addition of income-supporting (rather than price-supporting) commodity loan programs in 1985 that help protect against revenue losses and the introduction of planting flexibility on acres qualifying for commodity program payments in 1990. Productivity increases also mitigated some of the effect of real price declines on the real returns to crop production. Since 2002, prices of major commodities dropped and then spiked during 2006-08. While cropland used for crops changed little in total during this period, farmers changed the mix of crops by increasing land in corn and wheat and reducing the amount of land planted to hay and other crops. This chart is found in the March 2012 issue of Amber Waves magazine.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
High levels of domestic corn-based ethanol production are projected to continue over the next decade, with about 36 percent of total corn use projected to go to ethanol production if current laws remain in effect and specific assumptions about macroeconomic and international conditions, weather, and government policies hold. However, gains are expected to be smaller than have occurred in recent years. The projected slower expansion reflects only moderate near-term growth in overall U.S. gasoline consumption followed by declines later in the decade, limited potential for further market penetration of ethanol into the E10 (10-percent ethanol blend) market, constraints in the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol blend) market. This chart is found in USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021, OCE-2012-1, February 2012.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
The United States is the world's largest producer and exporter of corn. China has been a significant source of uncertainty in world corn trade, swinging from being the second-largest exporter in some years to occasionally importing significant quantities. Argentina, the second-largest corn exporter in most years, is in the Southern Hemisphere. Farmers there plant their corn after the size of the U.S. crop is known, providing a quick, market-oriented supply response to short U.S. crops. Several countries-including Brazil, Ukraine, Romania, and South Africa-have had significant corn exports when crops were large or international prices attractive. This chart is found in the Corn topic on the ERS website, as updated January 17, 2012.