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Global rice trade forecast to be the highest on record in 2012

Monday, December 3, 2012

Global rice trade has expanded strongly since 2009 and is estimated at a record 38.2 million tons in 2012, up 6 percent from 2011 and 30 percent from 2009. On the 2012 demand side, growth in rice trade has been broad-based, with higher imports by China and the Philippines, Sub-Saharan Africa (Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Senegal) and South America (Brazil, Colombia). On the 2012 supply side, increased exports by India and Vietnam have more than offset a major drop in shipments from Thailand, typically the largest exporter. India's exports surged to a record 10.0 million tons and Vietnam's exports rose to a record 7.2 million tons in 2012. Higher support prices and a record 2011/12 crop contributed to large government stocks in India that have been sold in the global market at competitive prices, a factor behind the record buying. For 2013, global trade is forecast to slip back to 36.1 million tons as India's stocks decline to a more normal level and the major 2012 importers rely more on accumulated supplies of rice. This chart appears in ERS's November 2012 Rice Outlook report.

India and Vietnam are projected to be the largest rice exporting countries in 2012

Friday, May 4, 2012

Global rice trade in 2012 is expected to be the second highest on record, with the calendar year 2012 trade forecast of 34 million tons 6 percent below the 2011 record of 36 million tons. The decline in global trade this year is largely due to weaker demand for imports from several top buyers, particularly Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria. India and Vietnam will be the largest rice exporting countries in 2012, making 2012 the first year since 1981-when the United States was the largest exporter-that Thailand has not been the largest rice exporting country. This chart is found in the April 2012 Rice Outlook, RCS-12d.

Energy-related expenses vary across crops

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Per-acre operating costs are important for determining producer net returns, which influence farmers' cropping choices. Rice, corn, and cotton have the highest per-acre expenses for energy-related inputs. While rice and cotton have the highest per-acre costs for fuel, lube, and electricity, corn has the highest costs for fertilizer. Energy-related costs for soybean production are relatively low. This chart comes from the ERS report, Impacts of Higher Energy Prices on Agriculture and Rural Economies, ERR-123, August 2011.

U.S. long-grain prices are projected to increase in 2011/12

Friday, October 7, 2011

The 2011/12 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected in September 2011 at $12.70-$13.70 per cwt, up 70 cents on both the high and low ends from last month. The upward revision was largely based on expectations of higher global trading prices in 2011/12. The 2011/12 SAFP for long-grain rice is well above the $11.10 estimated for 2010/11. In contrast with last year, U.S. long-grain prices in 2011/12 will be supported by smaller U.S. supplies, higher quality, and stronger world prices. This chart is found in Rice Outlook, RCS-11i, September 13, 2011.

2011 ratio of stocks-to-use for total world grains and oilseeds near record low

Friday, September 16, 2011

The ratio of global ending stocks to total use can be a reliable indicator of market prices (the lower the ratio, the tighter the market and the higher the price.) Currently, the stocks-to-use ratios for corn and soybeans are near record lows. The stocks-to-use ratios for wheat and rice suggest reasonably comfortable stock levels, but the shortage of milling-quality wheat has put strong upward pressure on wheat prices. Stock-to-use ratios for cotton, total oilseeds, total coarse grains, and sugar are also low. These low ratios suggest strong worldwide competition among crops for acreage in the 2011 planting season. This chart is found in the September 2011 Amber Waves feature, Why Another Food Commodity Price Spike?

Despite a higher yield, the U.S. 2011/12 rice crop is projected to decline

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

The 2011/12 U.S. rice production forecast (made August 12, 2011) was 188.1 million cwt (hundredweight, or 100 pounds), down 23 percent from the year-earlier record and the smallest crop since 1998/99. This month's revised forecast (up 1.1 million cwt) is based on higher expected yields. At 7,114 pounds per acre, the average field yield is up 55 pounds from last month's forecast, 6 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record. This is the first survey-based forecast for the 2011 U.S. rice crop. On an annual basis, harvested area declined in all Southern States, partly due to severe flooding in the Delta this spring that prevented planting in some areas. Even prior to planting, growers in the South had indicated smaller plantings in 2011/12 due to stronger relative returns for alternative crops. This chart is found in Rice Outlook, RCS-11h, August 12, 2011.

Rice farming is projected to remain a competitive planting option among major row crops

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Despite rising costs, net returns to rice are expected to increase each year after 2012-mostly due to higher prices. Although rising rice prices more than offset the steady increase in costs, net returns are projected to remain well below 2007-09. From 2014 onward, net returns per acre to rice are expected to exceed other planting options by an increasing margin, encouraging a small boost in rice acreage in competitive regions. Strong competition in the global market-especially in the long-grain milled market-and only modest expansion in the U.S. rice market limit the increase in rice acreage. This chart is from the ERS publication, Consolidation and Structural Change in the U.S. Rice Sector, RCS-11d-01, April 2011.