ERS Charts of Note
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Wednesday, September 19, 2012
As described in Charts of Note on July 19, 2012, the 2012 U.S. corn crop was planted earlier than usual due to relatively mild winter weather. Early planting can lead to early harvest, which can affect the supply and demand corn balance sheet in both the old and new crop marketing years. This chart shows the amount and share of total corn production harvested before September 1st since 1990, as well as forecasts for 2012. Early harvest is forecast at nearly 11 percent of the 2012 crop, and estimates of feed and residual use for 2011/12 have been lowered 150 million bushels based on the record level of crop maturity and harvest progress. Early new-crop corn use is expected to displace some use of 2011 old-crop corn and boost old-crop inventories. This chart comes from Feed Outlook, FDS-12i, September 2012.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Feed use of corn is estimated by USDA in the "feed and residual use" accounting category, which is used to balance corn supply and demand. Feed and residual use is equal to total supply minus all other (non-feed-and-residual) uses minus ending stocks. The price of corn is one factor that can affect feed and residual use. Economic theory suggests that feed use of feed grains would decrease if the price of corn rose. This chart shows historical data for total feed grains feed and residual use and the real corn price, and a general negative relationship is illustrated. This chart is found in Implications of an Early Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates, FDS-12f-01, July 2012.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
As is typical in periods of significant increases in food commodity prices, weather effects on agricultural production were a major factor that contributed to price increases in 2010-11. A series of adverse weather events were compressed into 10 months, beginning in June 2010. Weather around the world was too dry, too wet, too hot, or too cold, sharply reducing expectations for 2010 global crop production and stock levels, which resulted in higher prices. Similar production-reducing weather events occurred prior to the 2008 price peak, but they were spread over a 3-year period (2005-07). Consequently, expectations for world crop production dropped more quickly after June 2010 than during the 2005-07 price increases. On the demand side, consumption of grains and oilseeds continued to rise. As a result, global stocks of aggregate grains and oilseeds declined and prices began to rise rapidly. This chart appeared in the September 2011 issue of ERS's Amber Waves magazine. For more information on the 2012 drought, visit U.S. Drought 2012: Farm and Food Impacts information page in the ERS Newsroom.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
With relatively mild weather this past winter across much of the United States, prospects were favorable for the 2012 U.S. corn crop to be planted early this year. Planting progress data for corn indicated an advanced pace through much of the spring. This chart shows that corn plantings as of mid- April and late April 2012 were ahead of the typical pace. As a result, prospects also may be good for an early harvest, with the possibility of a higher than typical portion of the 2012 crop being harvested before September 1, the start of the official 2012/13 U.S. corn marketing year. An early harvest of new-crop corn has potential implications for non-feed-and-residual usage, ending stocks, and the derivation of feed and residual usage of corn for the old marketing year, as well as for available supplies in the first quarter of the new marketing year. This chart is found in Implications of an Early Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates, FDS-12f-01, July 2012.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
USDA's premier situation and outlook report, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), draws together domestic and foreign supply, demand, and trade data for key U.S. commodities and has been published before the opening of major domestic futures markets between the 8th and the 12th day of each month. According to economic theory, the price of a commodity changes when traders learn new information about its supply-and-demand fundamentals. Consequently, the value of new information to the market can be calculated by the difference in commodity price before and after the report is released. Based on that principle, ERS researchers tested cotton, soybean, and hard winter wheat futures prices for significant changes immediately following WASDE publication over the 30-year period 1981-2010. The research was complicated by the many factors that can affect commodity futures prices, including unexpected shocks, such as weather events, seasonality effects, and inventory levels. In addition, futures prices tend to grow more volatile as a futures contract nears expiry. In 2002, for example, commodity futures prices clearly spiked in certain WASDE publication periods but also experienced significant volatility throughout the year. This chart is found in the June 2012 issue of Amber Waves magazine.
Friday, April 27, 2012
With recent high cotton prices that encouraged fiber substitution and the global economic uncertainty facing consumers, world mill use is projected to decrease to its lowest level since 2003/04. World cotton consumption in 2011/12 is forecast at 107.7 million bales, 6 percent below last season. Consumption is lower in most major cotton consuming countries this season with the notable exception of Pakistan, where cotton mill use is expected to rise 3 percent. Foreign consumption is projected to decline 6.3 million bales in 2011/12, with China accounting for more than half of the decrease. Despite the reduction, China still accounts for nearly 40 percent of the global cotton mill use in 2011/12. The U.S. is expected to contribute 3 percent of the total in 2011/12, compared with 6 percent as recently as 2004/05. The U.S. is expected to contribute 3 percent of the total in 2011/12, compared with 6 percent as recently as 2004/05. This chart is found in the April 2012 Cotton and Wool Outlook, CWS-12b.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
As Americans have become more health conscious, the demand for organically grown food has increased. In response to this increased demand, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Customs and Border Protection began officially collecting data on trade of organic agricultural products last year. The chart compiles data now available for selected imports, including fruits, vegetables, coffee, tea, grains, and soybeans. For calendar year 2011, organic agricultural imports totaled $670 million (organic exports totaled $412 million). Just over $526 million in coffee was imported, with the majority of it unroasted. Organic coffee accounted for about 7 percent of total coffee imports. Organic products accounted for a fairly high share of import values of some products-for example, 46 percent of "other soybeans," 31 percent of black tea, and 20 percent of green tea imports were organic. This chart is made from data in the March 2012 Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, FTS-351.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Since 1980, the variation in cropland used for crops has been relatively small, despite significant variation in real (adjusted for inflation) commodity prices. Between 1980 and 2002, the real prices of major commodities (e.g., corn, soybeans, wheat) declined by over 60 percent, while total cropland used for crops dropped by about 6 percent. This relatively small reduction in cropland use may reflect changes in farm legislation in the 1980s and 1990s, which marked a shift toward greater market orientation with the addition of income-supporting (rather than price-supporting) commodity loan programs in 1985 that help protect against revenue losses and the introduction of planting flexibility on acres qualifying for commodity program payments in 1990. Productivity increases also mitigated some of the effect of real price declines on the real returns to crop production. Since 2002, prices of major commodities dropped and then spiked during 2006-08. While cropland used for crops changed little in total during this period, farmers changed the mix of crops by increasing land in corn and wheat and reducing the amount of land planted to hay and other crops. This chart is found in the March 2012 issue of Amber Waves magazine.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Fiscal 2012 agricultural exports are forecast at $131 billion, down $1 billion from the November forecast and $6.4 billion below fiscal 2011. The fiscal 2012 import projection is $106.5 billion. This represents a 13-percent increase from 2011. Given that the forecast for exports is down while imports are rising, the trade balance for 2012 is a surplus of $24.5 billion, down from the $43 billion for 2011. This chart is based on Table 1 in Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-73, February 23, 2012.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Changing farming practices, including the trend toward concentrated production on specialized operations, along with others such as wider use of irrigation and growing adoption of precision agriculture technologies, have allowed the farm sector to increase total output by nearly 50 percent over the past three decades, even as resources used in farming declined. These freed resources have been applied elsewhere, contributing to increased productivity throughout the economy. And consumers of farm products have benefited, too. Despite occasional price spikes and recent trends to the contrary, price increases for agricultural commodities have lagged far behind both economy-wide price increases and increases in prices of agricultural inputs over most of the last 30 years. This chart is found in the December 2011 issue of Amber Waves magazine.
Friday, July 29, 2011
During the last 40 years, five periods of large increases in agricultural prices were followed by sharp declines. A sixth surge in prices began in July 2010 and has not yet turned down. In 1972-74 and 2002-08, prices rose significantly more in percentage terms than in the other time periods. Prices did not decline back to their pre-peak level, however, as they did during price spikes in the 1980s and 1990s. The upward price movement during 2002-08 was the longest and was followed by the fastest decline. Prices for 2010-11 have risen faster than the other price spikes since 1970. The four-crop index rose about 70 percent in 8 months, equivalent to a 6.9 percent average monthly growth rate. This chart was published June 2011 in the ERS report Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again?, WRS-1103.
Friday, July 22, 2011
cAt least four organizations publish a monthly index of food commodity prices: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Bank (WB), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS). Each organization's index is based on a slightly different set of commodities and pricing points, as well as on different weights for each individual commodity's contribution to the overall index. All four indices, however, exhibit similar patterns as prices rise and fall. The FAO's index for December 2010 was higher than its previous high point in June of 2008. None of the other three organizations' December 2010 indices surpassed their previous record, primarily because the FAO index has higher weights for sugar and vegetable oils, commodities whose prices increased the most. The IMF index uses relatively higher weights for food grains. By January 2011, all of the indices had set a new record high, surpassing their June 2008 records. This chart was published June 2011 in the ERS report, Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again?, WRS-1103.
Monday, July 11, 2011
As a percent of production, U.S. beef exports are expected to surpass levels set in previous years. In 2011, U.S. domestic production is forecast at nearly 26.3 billion pounds. Even at higher year-over-year production levels in 2011, U.S. beef exports are expected to be about 9.9 percent of production this year. U.S. beef exports are forecast at 2.52 billion pounds in 2012. This graphic comes from the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-204, June 15, 2011. Older farmers' 28-percent share of all farms includes the 18 percent of farmers classified as older who operate retirement or residential/lifestyle farms. Since these farmers produce only 2 percent of U.S. output, their impact on U.S. agriculture as they leave farming entirely should be minimal. Their 14-percent share of assets does not contribute substantially to their own production, although they may rent land to other operators. About 22 percent of the land they own is rented out, and another 13 percent is enrolled in land retirement programs. Most production by older farmers occurs on large-scale (annual sales of $250,000 or more) farms and nonfamily farms. Older operators on these farms account for 12 percent of U.S. production but only 2 percent of farms and 6 percent of assets. However, some of these farms are multiple-generation operations, with at least 20 years' difference between the ages of the oldest and youngest operators. The large-scale and nonfamily farms with no apparent replacement operator account for 4 percent of all farm assets, which would have to be absorbed by other operations as the current operators exit. This chart appeared in the ERS report, Structure and Finances of U.S. Farms: Family Farm Report, 2010 Edition, EIB-66, July 2010.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Poultry's share of world meat production has steadily increased, while beef's share has declined. The changing composition of global meat production has affected the amount and kind of feed used. Poultry production is the most efficient animal industry at converting grain and protein meal into meat. Pork, however, continues to account for the largest share of world meat production, with China producing half of the world's pork. Industrial hog farming techniques that rely on feed rations with high levels of corn and protein meal are becoming more common. World cattle production has slowly turned toward more intensive feeding systems as well, which use more grain and protein meal. This chart was published June 2011 in the ERS report Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again?, WRS-1103.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
China's corn production for 2011/12, up 6.0 million tons to 178.0 million, is based on an increase in area reported by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for 2010/11. The 2010/11 production estimate increased 5.0 million tons to 173.0 million, adopting the NBS corn area, but remains below the NBS production estimate due to a careful analysis of yields based on weather, satellite imagery, and crop travel. This chart comes from Feed Outlook, FDS-11f, June 13, 2011.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Brazil and India had similar yields in 1992, both below the United States and the world average. With the adoption of modern, large-scale farming and improved access to inputs-and due to the extremely favorable climate in Brazil's new production regions-Brazil's cotton yields have surged to more than double the world average. This chart is from the ERS report, Brazil's Cotton Industry: Economic Reform and Development, CWS-11D-01, June 2011.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
The distribution of a household's wealth across asset types reflects livelihood orientation and also the extent that changes in particular asset markets have affected household net worth. For low-sales farm households, about half of household assets consist of farm assets, not including dwellings. Dwellings and financial assets (retirement and nonretirement) compose another 30 percent. As expected, given the greater importance of farm income, households associated with larger farms have a greater share of their assets (79 percent) in farm assets. Even though high-sales farm households have more than double the net worth of low-sales farm households, those with low sales have, on average, about $7,000 more in financial assets like stocks. This chart comes from Agricultural Income and Finance Outlook, AIS-90, December 2010.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Cattle production provides vital economic activity for the large expanse of nonarable land in Mexico, and the United States is the primary export market. Cattle raised for export in Mexico represent, on average, more than half of all U.S. cattle imports. In 12 of the years between 1989 and 2009, Mexico exported over a million head of cattle, mostly steers and heifers for feeding, to the United States. In 1995, large numbers of cattle were exported from Mexico due to drought conditions. Over half of Mexican cattle imports to the United States are lightweight feeder cattle (less than 400 pounds). Exports of Mexican cattle to the United States have declined in recent years due to a decreased cattle inventory in that country. This chart originally appeared in Cow-Calf Beef Production in Mexico, LDP-M-196-01, November 2010.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Cheese sales are a key economic component of the U.S. dairy industry. As consumer demand for cheese products has risen over time, more of the milk produced on American dairy operations has been allocated to making a variety of cheeses. About 188.9 billion pounds of milk were marketed in the United States in 2008, and 127 billion pounds were used in the manufacture of dairy products. Cheese production (not including cottage cheese) took about 65 percent (82 billion pounds) of the milk used for manufactured products. Continued growth in cheese consumption is a key factor in determining a positive market outlook for the U.S. dairy industry. This chart was originally published in Long-Term Growth in U.S. Cheese Consumption May Slow, LDP-M-193-01, August 2010.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Despite rising costs, net returns to rice are expected to increase each year after 2012-mostly due to higher prices. Although rising rice prices more than offset the steady increase in costs, net returns are projected to remain well below 2007-09. From 2014 onward, net returns per acre to rice are expected to exceed other planting options by an increasing margin, encouraging a small boost in rice acreage in competitive regions. Strong competition in the global market-especially in the long-grain milled market-and only modest expansion in the U.S. rice market limit the increase in rice acreage. This chart is from the ERS publication, Consolidation and Structural Change in the U.S. Rice Sector, RCS-11d-01, April 2011.