ERS Charts of Note
Friday, October 9, 2015
Since 2009, India’s exports of beef—specifically water buffalo meat, also known as carabeef—have expanded, with India moving ahead of Brazil to become the world’s largest beef exporter in 2014. India’s beef exports grew about 14 percent annually between 2000 and 2015, and are expected to lead major exporters with about 6 percent annual growth during 2015-2025. India’s exports of relatively low-cost beef (primarily to low- and middle-income markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East) reached a 24 percent global market share in 2015, and that share is projected to increase to 32 percent by 2025. The U.S. share of the global beef market has fluctuated, but averaged 12 percent during 2013-2015, and is projected to rise to 15 percent in 2025. This chart is based on data and analysis from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024.
Friday, September 11, 2015
Historically, nearly all livestock were bought and sold in large, public markets where hundreds of buyers and sellers would compete for the best price based on the information that each brings to the market. These cash transactions resulted in prices and pricing information that were freely available and shared widely through public and private sources. Beginning in the mid twentieth century, the industry evolved and became more concentrated and coordinated at all levels. The use of cash markets declined sharply in favor of various forms of price contracts, such as forward contracts, marketing agreements, packer ownership, and formula pricing—where a cash price might be used for reference but premiums or discounts are applied based on a pre-determined formula. In the beef cattle market, the last decade has seen a shift away from cash market sales in favor of formula pricing, which has led to concerns that the cash prices used in those formulas could be unreliable, and that the limited volume of public sales undermines price transparency and market efficiency. The Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting Act was passed in 1999 in response to these and other concerns, and requires all major meatpackers to report the prices they pay for sheep, cattle and hogs, as well as their selling prices for lamb, beef and pork. This chart is from the ERS report, Mandatory Price Reporting, Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Livestock Markets.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
When shopping at the meat counter this Fourth of July, consumers may notice differences in prices per pound compared to last year. A pound of pork chops sold for $3.79 in May 2015 compared to $4.11 per pound in May 2014, a decrease of 7.8 percent. The price of boneless chicken breasts has also fallen, decreasing by 1.9 percent over the last year to $3.41 per pound. In contrast, beef prices are up this year, largely due to drought conditions throughout the Southern Plains and Southwest. Higher feed costs and decreased water supplies forced farmers to shrink their herd sizes to historically low levels in 2014, causing beef prices to rise by more than 10 percent over the last year. On average, consumers are paying $0.28 more per pound for ground beef and $1.23 more per pound for sirloin steak in May 2015 compared to a year earlier. Information on ERS’s food price forecasts can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product.
Friday, February 13, 2015
Strong feeder cattle prices and declining feed costs are supporting high returns for cow-calf producers. The price of 750-800 lb. feeder steers at the Oklahoma National Stockyards exceeded $220 per hundredweight at the end of 2014, up $65 since January and over $100 since May 2013. At the same time, the price of corn (a major component of cattle feed) fell from above $7.00 per bushel in mid-2013 to under $4.00 per bushel by December 2014, reflecting a record 2014 crop projected at 14.4 billion bushels. Despite weaker demand, beef prices are at record high levels due to tight supplies and historically low cattle inventories. Expanding the cattle herd is a long-term process due to the time it takes cattle to mature, and requires holding some heifers off market for breeding purposes. Recently released data from USDA’s Cattle report suggests that inventories are beginning to grow, and cattle prices have begun to retreat. With corn prices forecast by USDA to average around $3.50 per bushel for the 2014/15 marketing year, returns to cow-calf operators should remain favorable into 2015. This chart is based on data from ERS’s Livestock & Meat Domestic Data and Feed Grains Database.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
U.S. retail choice beef values climbed through 2014, reaching a record high of $6.30 per pound in November. Retail value is defined as the average value at the grocery store of a basket of beef cuts, measured in cents per pound of retail weight. In November 2014, retail values were about $1.00 above the highs reached in 2013 and roughly $1.50 per pound above the previous five-year average. The sharpest jump in month to month prices in the past 5 years occurred between July and August 2014, when prices increased $0.29 per pound. Higher retail beef prices reflect increased cattle prices due to historically low cattle inventories and cattle being held off the market for breeding purposes as growers attempt to rebuild herds. The pace of slaughter has also slowed as feedlots take advantage of lower feed costs to hold cattle back longer and raise them to record high weights. U.S. beef production is forecast to decline further in 2015, indicating that retail prices are likely to remain high. This chart is based on data from Meat Prices Spreads that was last updated December 17, 2014.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Memorial Day weekend kicks off the barbecue season for many Americans, and a grilled burger topped with cheese is a holiday staple. Using price data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ERS calculated the average national cost of a home-cooked cheeseburger. The cost was found to vary seasonally, usually decreasing in February, May, and June while reaching annual peaks in November or December. Most of the seasonal variation is due to the changes in beef prices. The April 2013 cost of $2.07 for a home-prepared cheeseburger is up 61 percent since 2000, while overall food-at-home prices have increased 41 percent in that time. Much of that difference is due to the strong beef price inflation of recent years resulting from low cattle inventories and high feed prices. More information on food price changes and forecasts can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
As of mid-August 2012, 43 percent of farms in the United States were experiencing severe or greater levels of drought and another 17 percent were facing moderate levels of drought (for a description of severity levels, see droughtmonitor.unl.edu/classify). A striking aspect of the 2012 drought was how the drought rapidly increased in severity in early July, during a critical time of crop development for corn and other commodities. The chart shows the progression from mid-June to mid-August of severe or greater drought within the agricultural sector. While drought conditions eased some during early September, for most crop production, exposure to drought during June-August determined the drought’s impact on agricultural production. From mid-June to mid-August, the share of farms under severe or greater drought increased from 16 to 43 percent of all farms. Total cropland under severe or greater drought increased from 20 to 57 percent, while total value of crops exposed increased from 16 to 50 percent. As of mid-July, areas with over half of the value of cattle production were already exposed to severe drought; by mid-August, almost two-thirds were exposed. This chart is based on the table found in U.S. Drought 2012: Farm and Food Impacts on the ERS website, updated March 2013.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Effective February 1, 2013, Japan has permitted imports of beef from all U.S. cattle less than 30 months of age, a decision that removes most of the restrictions imposed on imports of U.S. beef at the end of 2003. In late 2003, Japan banned U.S. beef in reaction to the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United States. In 2005, Japan reopened its market to U.S. beef imports from cattle slaughtered at less than 21 months of age. However, U.S. beef exports to Japan, as well as Japanese beef consumption, have not recovered to the levels they reached in 2003 and earlier. The latest action is expected to lead to a further rebound in the volume of U.S. beef and byproducts exported to Japan; to allow somewhat lower prices in Japan for U.S. beef; and to raise the value of beef carcasses in the United States. This chart appears in Japan Announces New Rules for Imports of U.S. Beef.
Friday, March 8, 2013
The United States exported 2.45 billion pounds of beef in 2012 (in carcass weight equivalents), 12 percent below the record 2.78 billion pounds exported in 2011. The decline interrupted the steady recovery of U.S. beef exports after the discovery of a U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in 2003 led to a sharp drop in U.S. shipments. While global export demand for U.S. beef remained robust, the decline in 2012 occurred primarily because tightening domestic cattle inventories reduced exportable supplies. U.S. beef imports have trended downward since 2003, when Canada reported the discovery of BSE. Canadian beef imports resumed quickly thereafter on a restricted basis, but imports from Australia and New Zealand were limited in subsequent years by tight supplies and domestic herd rebuilding. In 2012, U.S. beef imports were 8 percent higher, driven by tightening U.S. supplies and strong demand. Increased U.S. imports were mostly from Oceania, as herd rebuilding in the region allowed more beef to be exported to the United States. This chart appears on the ERS Cattle and Beef topic page.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
In the final three months of 2012, higher field corn prices resulting from the Midwest drought began to show up on supermarket shelves. From October to December, while the all-items CPI fell 0.8 percent and overall food-at-home prices increased only 0.2 percent, prices rose for most foods that rely heavily on corn-based animal feed—beef, pork, poultry, other meats, eggs, and dairy products. Milk prices rose nearly 3 percent while egg prices increased 1.7 percent. Prices for beef, poultry, and other meats all rose by about 0.5 percent. The only animal-based category defying this trend is pork, where rising inventories and falling exports have caused retail prices to drop from historically high levels in early 2012. ERS forecasts prices for all meat and animal-based products to increase steadily through the first half of 2013. More information on food price changes and forecasts can be found in the Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 2013.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Overall food-at-home prices rose 2.6 percent in 2012, but this masked a great deal of variation across food categories. For the second consecutive year, beef and fats and oils showed the biggest percentage increases. Beef prices increased due to record low cattle inventories, while surging soybean prices pushed up prices for fats and oils. Poultry prices also increased substantially in 2012, due to a shift in demand away from high-priced beef and pork coupled with higher costs for broiler feed resulting from the Midwest drought. Pork prices, which saw major inflation in 2011, were flat in 2012 as wholesale prices fell due to rising hog inventories and falling exports. Vegetable prices fell 5.1 percent in 2012 as the unusually warm weather led to bumper crops for lettuce, tomatoes, and other vegetables, in sharp contrast to the poor harvests and high vegetable prices of 2011. More information on food price changes and forecasts can be found in the Food Price Outlook data product, updated January 24, 2013.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
While it is relatively easy to track U.S. meat and livestock imports, it is more difficult to estimate the amount of meat produced in the United States from animals that originated abroad. Foreign-born cattle accounted for an average of 8.1 percent of total monthly U.S. beef production over the last 13 years. When that amount is added to the annual average of 2.9 billion pounds of beef and veal imported from all foreign sources, almost 16 percent of annual U.S. beef and veal supplies is estimated to originate abroad. From 1995 through 2008, Canadian hogs contributed about 93 million pounds per year to U.S. pork supplies. When this amount is combined with the 895 million pounds of pork imported by the U.S. each year, foreign sources are estimated to account for about 8.4 percent of total U.S. pork supplies. This chart appears in "How Much U.S. Meat Comes From Foreign Sources?" in the September 2012 issue of ERS's Amber Waves magazine.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Mexico has historically been a top export market for U.S. beef, but in 2003, it emerged as an important source of beef imports for the United States. In 2011, Mexico exported 59,000 metric tons of beef to the U.S., making it the fourth largest source of U.S. beef imports. The volume of boneless, fresh, or frozen meat cuts exported from Mexico to the U.S. increased by nearly 68 percent from 2010 to 2011, while the volume of exports of Mexican bone-in beef cuts increased by nearly 59 percent. The increase in exports of Mexican beef to the U.S. is partly due to an increase in the number of TIF (Tipo Inspeccion Federal) plants inspected by Mexico's Federal Government. Such plants must meet standards similar to those in the U.S. and must inspect meat that is moved across State borders in Mexico or exported to the U.S. In the last 60 years, the number of operational TIF establishments increased from 15 to 365 across 27 States in Mexico and has grown rapidly in the last few years. This chart appears in "Mexico Emerges as an Exporter of Beef to the United States" in the September 2012 issue of ERS's Amber Waves magazine.
Friday, September 21, 2012
The United States imports significantly greater numbers of cattle than it exports. U.S. cattle imports contribute an estimated monthly average of 8.1 percent of production to the U.S. beef supply. Because of concerns with animal health issues in originating countries, the United States restricts cattle imports from most countries. Cattle imports to the United States originate, almost exclusively, from Mexico and Canada because of these countries geographic proximity to U.S. markets and the complementarity of their cattle and beef sectors to that of the United States. Cattle imported from Mexico tend to be lighter-weight cattle intended for U.S. stocker or feeder operations, while at least three-fourths of cattle imports from Canada are destined for immediate slaughter. Cattle imports from Mexico have increased year-over-year since 2008, while imports from Canada have trended downward. Total cattle imports have also trended downward since 2007 due to a declining total North American cattle herd. The data for this chart come from ERS's Livestock and Meat International Trade Data.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Retail prices for Choice beef and for all fresh beef set records in December 2011. For the fourth month in a row, the Choice price set a new nominal high, reaching $5.02/lb in December, and an annual average $4.83/lb for 2011. Farmers' share (net farm value divided by retail value) was 49.9% in 2011; the last time it was this high was in 1994 when it was 51%. The data for this chart are found in the ERS data product Meat Price Spreads, published January 19, 2012, on the ERS website.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Grocery store food prices were up 4.8 percent in 2011, as food inflation picked up again for the first time since 2008. 2011's higher food-at-home price inflation reflected higher energy and commodity prices, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar that boosted international demand for U.S. foods. Specific food categories posted especially large increases: beef up 10.2 percent, fats and oils up 9.3 percent, and eggs up 9.2 percent. Beef prices were up in 2011 due to higher input costs, low inventories, and strong international demand. Drought conditions throughout the South contributed to higher 2011 egg prices, while the jump in prices for fats and oils was due in large part to surging soybean prices. More information on ERS's analysis and forecasts of food price inflation can be found in the Food Prices, Expenditures and Costs topic on the ERS website.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
U.S. beef imports from Mexico have at least doubled in each of the last 2 years, continuing an upward trend that began in 2003. Beef imports from Mexico in 2010 totaled 107 million pounds, making Mexico the fifth largest exporter of beef to the United States. Through November 2011, imports of beef from Mexico increased by 46 percent over the same period in 2010. There are two reasons for the increasing exports of Mexican beef to the United States: (1) an increase in the number of Mexican slaughter plants meeting inspection standards similar to those in the United States, and (2) an increase in production of grain-fed beef in Mexico, the quality of beef that most often meets the tastes and preferences of U.S. consumers. This chart comes from the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-211, released January 19, 2012.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
The U.S. cattle and calves inventory as of January 1, 2011 was the lowest since 1958. When evaluated on a year-over-year basis, the inventory has continued to decline through 2011, with declines fueled by drought in the Southern Plains and Southeastern United States. Beef production, however, has trended upward over the past several decades. Higher slaughter weights and efficiency gains have resulted in increasing beef production even as cattle inventories have declined. However, beef production too is expected to decline in 2012. This chart appeared in the June 2011 issue of Amber Waves magazine.
Monday, July 11, 2011
As a percent of production, U.S. beef exports are expected to surpass levels set in previous years. In 2011, U.S. domestic production is forecast at nearly 26.3 billion pounds. Even at higher year-over-year production levels in 2011, U.S. beef exports are expected to be about 9.9 percent of production this year. U.S. beef exports are forecast at 2.52 billion pounds in 2012. This graphic comes from the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-204, June 15, 2011. Older farmers' 28-percent share of all farms includes the 18 percent of farmers classified as older who operate retirement or residential/lifestyle farms. Since these farmers produce only 2 percent of U.S. output, their impact on U.S. agriculture as they leave farming entirely should be minimal. Their 14-percent share of assets does not contribute substantially to their own production, although they may rent land to other operators. About 22 percent of the land they own is rented out, and another 13 percent is enrolled in land retirement programs. Most production by older farmers occurs on large-scale (annual sales of $250,000 or more) farms and nonfamily farms. Older operators on these farms account for 12 percent of U.S. production but only 2 percent of farms and 6 percent of assets. However, some of these farms are multiple-generation operations, with at least 20 years' difference between the ages of the oldest and youngest operators. The large-scale and nonfamily farms with no apparent replacement operator account for 4 percent of all farm assets, which would have to be absorbed by other operations as the current operators exit. This chart appeared in the ERS report, Structure and Finances of U.S. Farms: Family Farm Report, 2010 Edition, EIB-66, July 2010.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Access to distiller's wet grains (a derivative of ethanol processing used as a feed supplement for beef and dairy cattle) could spur increased concentrations of beef and dairy herds near ethanol processing facilities. Spreading manure on energy feedstock crops and potential use of animal waste for onsite power generation provide additional incentives for herd expansion near processing facilities. Ethanol's reliance on corn as the primary feedstock and the high concentration of ethanol processing facilities in the Corn Belt could slow or reverse the recent shift in animal concentrations from the Midwest. In fact, current and planned ethanol production capacities appear to correlate strongly with the presence of livestock and, in particular, with livestock's capacity for distiller's grain consumption. This map is from the ERS research report, Ethanol and a Changing Agricultural Landscape, ERR-86, November 2009.