Retail orange juice prices dropped swiftly to close out 2016

Average retail prices for orange juice were above long-term averages for 2015 and most of 2016, but a surprising drop in October brought prices back in line with years prior. Retail prices increased because of declining domestic production, which has been below long-term averages since 2013. The United States also imports a large amount of orange juice with the majority coming from Brazil. Forecasts for Brazilian orange juice production are 30 percent higher for the 2016/17 marketing year compared to the prior year, and will likely lead to more robust exports from the country. October 2016 imports were more than double the previous year and likely signaled to retailers an increase in supply for the upcoming year. This chart is drawn from data reported in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nut dataset updated in January 2017.