Record world wheat crop pressures U.S. prices

World wheat production is forecast at a record 711.4 million tons in 2013/14 (June/May marketing year), 2 percent above the previous record outturn in 2011/12. The average per hectare yield is forecast at 2.9 percent above the previous record. A record crop in Canada, along with larger harvests in Australia and the Black Sea exporters (Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) are major contributors to the outlook for the increase in global wheat output. World wheat trade is also forecast to reach a record 154.3 million tons in 2013/14 as increased supplies in major wheat producing and exporting countries—including Canada, Australia, and the Black Sea exporters—puts downward pressure on wheat prices. U.S. wheat prices are also under pressure because falling U.S. corn prices following the rebound in the 2013/14 U.S. corn crop have led to reduced demand for feed wheat. U.S. season average farm prices are currently forecast in the range of $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel, the midpoint of that range down more than 11 percent from the 2012/13 record of $7.77. This chart is based on data and analysis provided in Wheat Outlook: December 2013.

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