Simla Tokgoz

Research Agricultural Economist


Simla Tokgoz is a research agricultural economist in the Crops Branch in the Market and Trade Economics Division at the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).


Simla joined ERS in January 2022. Her research focuses modeling and analysis of markets for agricultural commodities, biofuels, and energy—particularly the integration of agricultural commodities and energy markets.

Prior to coming to ERS, she worked at International Food Policy Research Institute, where her research included agricultural value chains in developing countries, specifically measurement of policy distortions along value chains. She has also worked at Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University, focusing on modeling of international grain and ethanol markets within the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling team.

She serves as an associate editor for the “Agriculture & Food Security” journal.


Simla received Ph.D. in Economics, with minor in Statistics, from North Carolina State University and her B.S. Degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University.

Professional Affiliations

Simla is a member of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) and the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).

Selected Publications

Mamun, A., W. Martin, and S. Tokgoz. 2021. “Reforming Agricultural Support for Improved Environmental Outcomes,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, published online 10 January 2021.

Tokgoz. S. 2019. “The Food-Fuel-Fiber Debate,” in Biofuels, Bioenergy and Food Security, D. Debnath and S. Babu, eds. Chapter 5. pages 79-99. Elsevier Academic Press. ISBN 978-0-12-803954-0.

Tokgoz, S. and F. Majeed. 2019. “Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives for Value Chain Analysis: Evidence from Indian Value Chains,” Journal of Agricultural Economics 70(2):275-292.

Laborde, D., F. Majeed, S. Tokgoz, and M. Torero. 2016. Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security IFPRI Discussion Paper 01531, May, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.

Dodder, R.S., P.O. Kaplan, A. Elobeid, S. Tokgoz, S. Secchi, and L.A. Kurkalova. 2015. “Impact of Energy Prices and Cellulosic Biomass Supply on Agriculture, Energy and the Environment: An Integrated Modeling Approach,” Energy Economics 51:77-87. 

Yang, J., W. Zhang, and S. Tokgoz. 2013. “The Macroeconomic Impacts of Chinese Currency Appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A Global CGE Analysis,” Journal of Policy Modeling 35(6):1029-1042. 

Elobeid, A., S. Tokgoz, R. Dodder, T. Johnson, O. Kaplan, L. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi. 2013. “Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment,” Environmental Modelling and Software 48: 1-16.

Yu, T., S. Tokgoz, E. Wailes, and E. Chavez. 2011. “A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Policy Responses to Higher World Agricultural Commodity Prices,” Food Policy 36:545-561.

Dumortier, J., D. Hayes, M. Carriquiry, F. Dong, X. Du, A. Elobeid, J. Fabiosa, and S. Tokgoz. 2011. “Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land Use Change,” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 33(3):428-448.

Elobeid, A. and S. Tokgoz. 2008. “Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What does it Imply for the United States and Brazil,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90(4):918-932.

Searchinger, T., R. Heimlich, R. Houghton, F. Dong, A. Elobeid, J. F. Fabiosa, S. Tokgoz, D. J. Hayes, and T. Yu. 2008. “Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change,” Science February 29, 2008:1238-1240.

Tokgoz, S. 2006. “Private Agricultural R&D in the United States,” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 31(2):212-238.