Publications

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  • Animal Products Markets in 2005 and Forecasts for 2006

    LDPM-14601, September 08, 2006

    Uncertainty continues to shape the forecasts for animal products markets in 2006. Potential and actual animal disease outbreaks, consumer sensitivities, volatile exchange rates, and growing competition from producers in other countries cloud U.S. trade prospects for major meats. Loss of U.S. trade market share, partly caused by disease outbreaks and related trade restrictions that have affected animal product exports since 2003, compounds the problem. The outlook for U.S. meat, poultry, and dairy markets in 2006 depends on how well domestic production adjusts to changes in input costs, the effect of exchange rates on trade, the continuing effects of disease and trade restrictions on exports, and the increasing competitiveness of emerging animal products exporters.

  • Are More Livestock Hitting the Road?

    Amber Waves, November 01, 2003

    Shipments of hogs have increased dramatically since 1990, while cattle and sheep shipments have remained fairly steady. Recent concerns about the safety of the U.S. food supply and the potential for bioterrorism have prompted a new look at livestock movements.

  • Consumer-Level Food Loss Estimates and Their Use in the ERS Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Data

    TB-1927, January 03, 2011

    The Food Availability (per capita) Data System developed by USDA's Economic Research Service tracks annual food and nutrient availability for many commodities. The Food Availability data series in this system overstates actual consumption, so ERS has included an additional series, the Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data, to adjust the Food Availability data for nonedible food parts and food losses, including losses from farm to retail, at retail, and at the consumer level. In this report, we propose new consumer-level loss estimates for "cooking loss and uneaten food" of the edible share to replace those currently used in the Loss-Adjusted Food Availability data and propose their adoption for the entire data span (1970 to the most recent year in the series). The proposed loss percentages are calculated by subtracting food consumption estimates from food purchase or availability estimates for each food. These calculations are adjusted with information from an expert panel experienced in analyzing food consumption data. In general, the proposed food loss estimates for individual foods indicate substantial differences from the currently used estimates. Although some estimates indicate smaller loss percentages than the currently used estimates, many are larger. Overall, if the proposed loss estimates are used in the ERS loss-adjusted series, the average American would consume 17.3 pounds less each year, or 41.9 fewer calories per day, than suggested by the currently used loss estimates.

  • Dietary Assessment of Major Trends in U.S. Food Consumption, 1970-2005

    EIB-33, March 28, 2008

    ERS investigates trends in U.S. food consumption from 1970 to 2005. Results suggest many Americans still fall short of Federal dietary recommendations for whole grains, lower fat dairy products, and fruits and vegetables.

  • Disease-Related Trade Restrictions Shaped Animal Product Markets in 2004 and Stamp Imprints on 2005 Forecasts

    LDPM-133-01, August 03, 2005

    Disease outbreaks and related trade restrictions that affected U.S. animal product markets and exports in 2003 continued to constrain markets in 2004. U.S. cattle and beef markets were most affected. Pork, dairy, and lamb markets did not face any direct disease issues but both U.S. and international outbreaks of Avian Influenza buffeted poultry markets. Forecasts of 2005 U.S. animal-products trade reflect expected market responses given the uncertainties surrounding cattle and beef markets in the United States.

  • Economic Impacts of Foreign Animal Disease

    ERR-57, May 28, 2008

    As more is learned about the impacts of foreign animal-disease outbreaks, questions arise regarding the efficacy of existing animal disease-impact models for capturing the array of effects across many economic sectors and time. Previous models lacked adequate treatment of either the economic components or the epidemiological components, and, in some cases, both. This report presents a quarterly livestock and crop modeling framework in which epidemiological model results are integrated with an economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector to estimate the economic impacts of outbreaks of foreign-source livestock diseases. The framework can be applied to many livestock diseases and this study uses the model to assess the results of a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Model results show large trade-related losses for beef, beef cattle, hogs, and pork, even though relatively few animals are destroyed. The best control strategies prove to be those that reduce the duration of the outbreak.

  • Factors Shaping Expanding U.S. Red Meat Trade

    LDPM-175-01, February 10, 2009

    U.S. imports and exports of red meats-beef, pork, lamb, and mutton-have expanded rapidly over the last several decades, linking livestock sectors of the United States to those of several major trading partners. Factors driving this trade growth include not only rising incomes, but also the preference of U.S. and foreign consumers for a greater variety of red meat cuts, facilitated by the expansion of free trade agreements. Changes in currency values, including the recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of key trading partners, have also been important influences in expanding trade in U.S. red meat products. Domestic production continues to provide the main share of beef and pork consumed in the United States, while the share of U.S. lamb consumption from imports has increased significantly. While the red meat (and poultry) markets have been punctuated by animal disease issues over the last few years, the integration of trade is expected to continue.

  • Feed Grains Outlook: January 2015

    FDS-15A, January 14, 2015

    The January 2015 Feed Grains Outlook report contains projections for the 2014/15 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: August 2016

    FDS-16H, August 16, 2016

    The August 2016 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: April 2014

    FDS-14D, April 11, 2014

    The April 2014 Feed Grains Outlook report contains projections for the 2013/14 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: April 2015

    FDS-15D, April 13, 2015

    The April 2015 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2014/15 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

  • Feed Outlook: April 2016

    FDS-16D, April 14, 2016

    The April 2016 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2015/16 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: August 2014

    FDS-14H, August 14, 2014

    The August 2014 Feed Grains Outlook report contains projections for the 2014/15 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: August 2015

    FDS-15H, August 14, 2015

    The August 2015 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2015/16 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: December 2012

    FDS-12L, December 13, 2012

    Market analysis of domestic and international feed grain markets.

  • Feed Outlook: December 2013

    FDS-13L, December 12, 2013

    Imports Bump Up Feed Grain Supplies as Ethanol and Exports Boost Use and Stocks Slip.

  • Feed Outlook: December 2014

    FDS-14L, December 12, 2014

    The December 2014 Feed Grains Outlook report contains projections for the 2014/15 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: December 2015

    FDS-15L, December 11, 2015

    The December 2015 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2015/16 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: December 2017

    FDS-17L, December 14, 2017

    The December 2017 Feed Outlook report contains estimates for 2017/18 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: February 2013

    FDS-13B, February 12, 2013

    Market analysis of domestic and international feed grain markets.