Feed Outlook: January 2012

by Thomas Capehart and Edward Allen

The National Agricultural Statistics Service's Crop Production 2011 Summary and January Grain Stocks reports revealed larger than expected corn supplies this month. Feed grain production for 2011/12 is estimated at 323.5 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month as higher estimated corn production more than offset lower sorghum output. Feed grain ending stocks are forecast down 0.3 million tons to 23.8 million tons. Corn production is estimated 48 million bushels higher, with harvested acreage advanced 45,000 acres and the national average yield raised 0.5 bushels per acre. Projected 2011/12 corn ending stocks are lowered 2 million bushels, as a 50-million-bushel increase in exports more than offsets the larger supply. Ending stocks at 6.7 percent of projected usage will be the tightest since 1995/96. The projected season average prices are lowered for corn, sorghum, and barley. Global coarse grain production is up slightly as a sharp reduction in prospects for Argentina is offset by increases for Ukraine and other countries. Reduced Argentine exports and increased imports by China support increased U.S. corn exports. Foreign 2011/12 coarse grain ending stocks are forecast higher this month, up 3 percent from a year.

Keywords: Feed grains; corn; sorghum; barley; oats

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• Feed Outlook: January 2012

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