Market Outlook
See the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Summary
Beef/Cattle: Based on slaughter data through early March 2024, the projection for cow slaughter is raised in the first half of the year and fed cattle marketings are shifted out of the first quarter and into the outlying quarters at a more rapid pace. As a result, the forecast is raised by 140 million pounds to 26.325 billion pounds. Cattle prices are raised on firm demand and recent price data. The forecast for beef imports in the first quarter is raised 50 million pounds to 1.200 billion pounds. Projections for beef exports are unchanged from last month.
Anticipated percent changes in 2024 red meat, poultry, and dairy exports compared with 2023
U.S. export forecasts for red meat, poultry, and dairy for 2024 compared to actual export data from 2023 are presented below in a percent-change format. In 2024, beef exports are expected to be about 8.3 percent lower than those of 2023 due to lower 2024 beef production from tightening cattle supplies, as well as from tougher global competition from such beef exporting countries as Australia. Pork exports are forecast to increase almost 4.6 percent over 2023 due to higher domestic production and less global competition from the European Union. Broiler exports in 2024 are expected to decline about 1.4 percent compared with last year, due to higher domestic prices and weak demand from China. Turkey is expected to be competitively priced in 2024, with exports forecast to be up 6.4 percent compared with 2023. Compared with 2023, dairy exports on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis should increase slightly this year—about 0.2 percent. Relatively strong domestic demand for dairy products and limited growth in milk production will likely limit export growth.
Download chart data in Excel format.