Market Outlook

See the latest Wheat Outlook report.

U.S. Wheat Exports Forecast at 4-Year High

U.S. wheat exports for 2024/25 are forecast up 25 million bushels to 800 million bushels based on larger domestic supplies and reduced competition from other key exporters. Russia’s production is forecast down 5 million metric tons (MMT) this month. The European part of Russia, where winter wheat is primarily grown, was beset by freezing temperatures in May and drought and heat through much of the growing season. Production is also expected lower for the European Union (excessive moisture in France) and Ukraine (intensifying dryness). Amidst the lower expectations for crops in these key exporters, U.S. wheat prices have started to pull closer to other major wheat exporters. The spread between U.S. Hard Red Winter at the Gulf, freight on board (FOB), and French wheat (FOB Rouen) has narrowed considerably while other key classes remain highly competitive with other major exporters. Even in spite of this month’s export increase, the long-term decline in the U.S. share of the global market is still evident as total exports are 20 percent below 2020/21. Notably, the United States is still forecast as the world’s fifth leading wheat supplier.