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U.S. 2025/26 Sugar Supply Is Forecast Lower; Mexico’s 2025/26 Sugar Production Is Projected to Recover
In the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 13.791 million short tons, raw value (STRV), almost 600,000 STRV lower than the prior year. Sugar deliveries for food and beverage use are projected at 12.150 million STRV, matching 2024/25 which was reduced from last month by 90,000 STRV. With the other use component set at 105,000 STRV, also equal to the 2024/25 estimate, the 2025/26 total sugar use is 12.355 million STRV. The corresponding ending stocks-to-use ratio is 11.6 percent, as the U.S. Department of Agriculture has yet to announce the 2025/26 U.S. additional specialty sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ). If this volume is assumed to be set no lower than the 2024/25 level (about 231,000 STRV), then the stocks-to-use ratio would be 13.5 percent.
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is projected at 5.094 million metric tons (MT), a 6 percent recovery from the weather-affected 2024/25 campaign. Mexican sugar exports to the United States (under the terms of the suspension agreements) are forecast at 572,489 MT, already accounting for the 2025/26 U.S. additional specialty TRQ that is yet to be announced. Ending stocks for 2024/25 and 2025/26 are 1.081 million MT, which now include 150,000 MT of low-polarity sugar after the National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane (CONADESUCA) reflected this volume in its balance sheet. This sugar type is destined for exports to the United States during the first quarter of the fiscal year, when the harvest campaign is just starting.