See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks Forecast Lower For MY 2025/26
Note: Effective April 2025, Oil Crops Outlook will publish at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The U.S. soybean supply for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast nearly unchanged, with higher carryover stocks and marginally lower soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down nearly 1 percent, due to the lower planted area. The U.S. soybean yield is forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend, while assuming normal weather during the growing season. U.S. soybean total demand for MY 2025/26 is forecast higher, as an increase in the domestic soybean crush offsets the reduction in exports. Consequently, U.S. soybean ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are projected at 295 million bushels, 55 million bushels lower than estimated stocks for MY 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in MY 2024/25. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast to increase to $310.00 per short ton and $0.46 per pound, respectively. Total U.S. oilseeds production for MY 2025/26 is forecast higher at 128.5 million metric tons.
Global oilseed production is forecast to reach a new record high of 692 million metric tons. This number is up nearly 15 million metric tons from MY 2024/25 on higher soybean, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, copra, peanut and palm kernel—with cottonseed production declining. A record-high soybean crop is forecast for Brazil at 175 million metric tons. Global soybean crush volumes are projected to increasebut at a slower pace than in MY 2024/25. China’s soybean imports are forecast up to 112 million metric tons—along with several other countries including Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan. Global soybean ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are projected at 124.3 million metric tons, up 1.2 million metric tons from MY 2024/25.