See the latest Soybeans & Oil Crops Outlook report.
U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Supply Forecast Declines on Lower Beginning Stocks and Production
U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply forecast is reduced this month by 63 million bushels on lower carry over from MY 2024/25 and lower soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, 43 million bushels down from the previous month’s forecast on lower harvested acres, partially offset by higher yield. The soybean planted and harvested acreage declined this month by 3 percent from the July projection. This month, the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its first survey-based soybean yield forecast for the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 at 53.6 bushels per acre, 1.1 bushels per acre higher than the previous estimate. With the lower soybean supply, the U.S. soybean export forecast is reduced this month to 1.7 billion bushels. Ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are projected at 290 million bushels. The MY 2025/26 season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean meal price and soybean oil price are forecast at $280 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production forecast for MY 2025/26 is reduced this month by 3.3 million metric tons to 690.1 million metric tons on lower sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and soybean production only partially offset by a higher rapeseed crop. The global oilseed export forecast is lowered marginally this month, while the global oilseed crush is reduced by 1.3 million metric tons to 580.5 million metric tons, as lower sunflowerseed and cottonseed crush is only partially offset by higher rapeseed crush. The global total oilseed ending stocks for MY 2025/26 are forecast lower than last month due to lower soybean stocks.