Market Outlook

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U.S. 2024/25 Rice Production Projected to Increase Almost 1 Percent to 220.2 Million Hundredweight

These are the first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)-reported 2024/25 projections for both the U.S. and global rice markets. For the United States, production in 2024/25 is projected at 220.2 million hundredweight (cwt), up 1 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 2020/21. The production increase is due to a projected 30,000-acre increase in harvested area to 2.88 million acres. The yield is projected fractionally below a year earlier. U.S. rice imports in 2024/25 are forecast at a record 44.5 million cwt, 3 percent above a year earlier. With a carryin of 40.8 million cwt, these forecasts yield a total supply projection of a record 305.5 million cwt.

On the 2024/25 U.S. demand side, total exports are projected at 100.0 million cwt, 6 percent above a year earlier. By type, milled-rice exports are projected to increase 5.0 million cwt to 56.0 million. Rough-rice exports are projected at a record 44.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from a year earlier. By class, long-grain exports are projected to increase 2.0 million cwt to 75.0 million, and medium- and short-grain are forecast to increase 4.0 million cwt to 25.0 million. Total domestic and residual use is projected to increase 3.0 million cwt to a record 160.0 million. On balance, these supply and use projections result in an ending stocks forecast of 45.5 million cwt, 11.5 percent larger than a year earlier.