Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to decline in 2026. Forecast at $158.4 billion for the calendar year, net farm income would be $4.3 billion (2.6 percent) lower than in 2025 (not adjusted for inflation). Net cash farm income is forecast at $176.4 billion for 2026, a slight increase of $0.7 billion (0.4 percent) relative to 2025 (not adjusted for inflation).
In inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars, net farm income is forecast to decline by $9.1 billion (5.5 percent) from 2025 to 2026, and net cash farm income is forecast to decrease by $4.6 billion (2.5 percent) compared with the previous year. If realized, both measures in 2026 would remain above their 2006–25 averages (in inflation-adjusted dollars).
See all forecast and estimate data on farm income and wealth statistics or see a summary of the forecasts in the table U.S. farm sector financial indicators, 2019–2026F.
Note: In the text below, year-to-year changes in the major aggregate components of farm income are generally discussed in nominal dollars, although cases are noted where the change’s direction is reversed using inflation-adjusted dollars.
Summary Findings
- Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $1.7 billion (0.3 percent) from 2025 to $540.3 billion in 2026 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to increase by $14.6 billion (6.1 percent) from 2025 levels to $253.0 billion in 2026 following higher receipts for corn, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables/melons. Total animal/animal product receipts are projected to decrease by $16.4 billion (5.4 percent) to $287.3 billion in 2026 following lower receipts for chicken eggs.
- Direct Government farm payments are forecast at $47.4 billion for 2026, a $19.5-billion increase from 2025. The forecast increase is largely because of expected increases in commodity payments that are a function of prices/revenues, as well as higher supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers. Direct Government farm payments include Federal farm program payments paid to farmers and ranchers but exclude U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans and insurance indemnity payments made by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC).
- Total production expenses, including those associated with operator dwellings, are forecast to rise by $21.2 billion (4.5 percent) from 2025 to $492.8 billion in 2026. Higher spending on livestock/poultry purchases, fertilizer/lime/soil conditioners, and fuel/oils are expected to account for most of the projected increase.
Total Cash Receipts Forecast to Decline in 2026
Total inflation-adjusted cash receipts are forecast to fall $18.0 billion (3.2 percent) from 2025 to $540.3 billion in 2026. Animal/animal product cash receipts are expected to decline by $25.5 billion (8.1 percent) during the year, but crop cash receipts are projected to increase by $7.5 billion (3.1 percent).
Crop Receipts Expected to Rise in 2026
Crop cash receipts are forecast at $253.0 billion in 2026, an increase of $14.6 billion (6.1 percent) from 2025 in nominal terms. Receipts for corn, soybeans, and cotton are expected to increase, while receipts for rice and sugar crops are projected to decline.
Corn receipts are expected to grow $6.8 billion (11.3 percent) in 2026, mainly due to higher quantities sold. Soybean receipts are forecast to increase by $4.3 billion (10.0 percent), mainly due to higher prices. However, rice receipts are projected to fall $0.6 billion (19.6 percent) mostly due to lower quantities sold, and wheat receipts are expected to decline by $0.3 billion (2.5 percent). Receipts for cotton are forecast to increase $0.7 billion (12.5 percent) in 2026. Declines of $1.2 billion (43.9 percent) and $0.4 billion (17.3 percent), respectively, are forecast for sugarbeets and sugarcane.
Vegetable and melon cash receipts are expected to increase $3.8 billion (15.0 percent) in 2026 due to higher prices. Receipts for fruits and nuts are projected to decrease $0.1 billion (0.4 percent). See data on the value of crop production (in the value added table) and crop cash receipts.
Animal/Animal Product Receipts Projected to Fall in 2026
After reaching a record high in 2025, total animal/animal product cash receipts are forecast at $287.3 billion in 2026, a decrease of $16.4 billion (5.4 percent) in nominal terms. Falling receipts for chicken eggs are expected to contribute most to this decline. However, cattle/calves receipts are expected to continue to grow in 2026.
Milk receipts are forecast to decline by $2.1 billion (4.3 percent) from 2025 due to lower prices. Hog receipts are expected to fall $1.2 billion (4.0 percent). Receipts for cattle and calves are projected to grow $7.0 billion (5.2 percent), as cattle prices are expected to continue to rise in 2026.
Receipts for chicken eggs are forecast to drop $20.9 billion (66.3 percent), as prices are forecast to fall significantly this year. Broiler receipts are expected to fall $1.3 billion (2.8 percent) as well. However, rising prices are expected to drive receipts for turkeys $2.0 billion (35.1 percent) higher during the year. See data on the value of animal/product production (in the value added table) and animal/product cash receipts.
Direct Government Farm Payments Forecast To Increase in 2026
Direct Government farm program payments are those made by the Federal Government to farmers and ranchers with no intermediaries. Historically, most direct payments to farmers and ranchers have been administered by the USDA using the Farm Bill, but in recent years a significant proportion have come from supplemental programs authorized by the U.S. Congress. Government payments discussed here do not include Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) indemnity payments (listed as a separate component of farm income) and USDA loans (listed as a liability in the farm sector’s balance sheet). Direct Government farm program payments are forecast at $47.4 billion for 2026, a $19.5 billion increase (or 69.8 percent) from the $27.9 billion total for 2025. This overall increase reflects higher anticipated payments from Farm Bill programs that trigger payments when commodity prices fall, while supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments are expected to remain high.
- Supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance payments in 2026 are forecast at $26.5 billion, an increase of $5.3 billion (24.9 percent) from 2025. This consists primarily of payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act and Supplemental Disaster Assistance from the American Relief Act of 2025.
- Farm Bill payments that are a function of commodity prices or revenue are forecast at $15.6 billion for 2026, a significant increase of $13.4 billion from 2025 largely because of modifications to the 2025 crop year Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs authorized by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA, Pub. L. 119-21). Dairy Margin Coverage Payments are forecast at $169.9 million, an increase of $167.0 million in 2026.
- Conservation payments from the financial assistance programs of USDA's Farm Service Agency and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) are expected to be $5.3 billion in 2026, an increase of $757.9 million (16.9 percent) from the 2025 level. The increase in conservation payments is due to an increase in payments from NRCS programs.
See data table on Government payments.
Total Production Expenses are Expected to Increase in 2026
Farm sector production expenses are forecast at $492.8 billion in 2026, up from the 2025 estimate of $471.6 billion—an increase of $21.2 billion (4.5 percent). When adjusted for inflation, the expenses are forecasted to increase by $7.1 billion (1.5 percent) from their 2025 levels.
See data tables on production expenses.
Livestock/poultry purchases, feed, and cash labor are expected to be the three largest production expense categories. In 2026, livestock/poultry purchases are projected at $71.9 billion, up $7.4 billion (11.4 percent) from 2025 in nominal terms. With this increase, livestock/poultry purchases would exceed feed expenses for the first time, making it the single largest expense category in 2026.
Feed spending is projected at $69.5 billion, down $1.5 billion (2.1 percent) from 2025. Cash labor expenses are forecast at $44.3 billion for 2026, which is generally comparable to 2025 (down $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent). After adjusting for inflation, the declines in feed and cash labor are larger—5.0 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.
Among other categories, pesticide expenses (spending on agricultural chemicals and application costs) are projected to decline in 2026 relative to 2025 (by $1.4 billion, or 6.6 percent), while fertilizer, lime, and soil conditioner expenses are expected to increase in 2026 (by $5.3 billion or 15.3 percent). Fuel and oil expenses are also expected to increase (by $4.8 billion or 28.8 percent). For full data on expenses by category, and for the values in both nominal and inflation-adjusted dollars, see the data tables on production expenses.
Suggested citation for linking to this discussion:
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. (2026, September 3). Farm sector income & finances: Farm sector income forecast.