Market Outlook

See the the latest Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report.

U.S. and Mexican Sugar Supplies Projected Larger

Beet sugar production for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 are increased on higher-than-expected production in September and atypical growing and harvesting conditions in October and early November. Cane sugar production in Louisiana for 2021/22 is decreased on lower yields and for 2020/21 based on lower September production. The 2021/22 beet and cane sugar production levels of 5.413 and 3.919 million short tons, raw value (STRV), respectively, combine for a record U.S. sugar output. Imports for 2020/21 are reduced, while imports in 2021/22 are increased 45,000 STRV to 3.045 million in part due to increases in bulk raw sugar under the high-tier tariff. Sugar use for 2021/22 is unchanged, but for 2020/21 is reduced based on final data. Deliveries for human consumption for 2020/21 are reduced by 90,000 STRV, and unchanged for 2021/22. Ending stocks for 2020/21 are 1.73 million STRV with an ending stocks-to ratio of 14.0 percent. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2021/22 of 14.3 percent, up 1.1 percentage points over last month on the higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.

Mexico sugar production for 2021/22 is projected at 5.98 million metric tons (MT), up 39,000 over last month, and unchanged for 202/21. Mexico sugar deliveries for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 are down from last month, as both total and per capita sugar consumption continue to decline. Exports are marginally higher in 2020/21 and up 99,000 MT for 2021/22. Ending stocks are increased for 2020/21 due to the reduced demand, and fractionally down in 2021/22.