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U.S. 2026/27 Sugar Production Is Reduced; Mexico’s 2026/27 Sugar Exports to the United Are Revised Accordingly
U.S. 2026/27 sugar supply is lowered from last month by 168,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.268 million, as an increase in beginning stocks due to adjustments in the 2025/26 balance sheet is more than offset by decreases in sugar production and imports from Mexico. Sugar production is down to 8.839 million STRV, the lowest since 2019/20’s 8.149 million. Sugar imports from Mexico are revised downwards by 158,000 STRV to 1,188,085, a volume which reflects the U.S.-Mexico sugar suspension agreements’ U.S. Needs calculation to achieve a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent. Correspondingly, the September Export Limit (70 percent of U.S. Needs) is about 832,000 STRV, up 159,000 STRV from the July Export Limit and sets a new minimum level of access for Mexico’s sugar into the U.S. market. Sugar use is unchanged at 12.571 million STRV. Thus, ending stocks are reduced by the change in supply (-168,000 STRV) to 1.697 million STRV.
For 2025/26, U.S. sugar supply is increased from last month by 128,000 STRV to 14.604 million, mainly on larger-than-expected sugar imports, based on two data sources—U.S. Bureau of the Census’s actual entries of high-tier duty raw sugar and of sugar imported from Mexico between October 1–July 31, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s preliminary data between August 1–September 10. With sugar use unchanged at 12.571 million STRV, ending stocks are raised by the change in supply (+128,000 STRV) to 2.033 million STRV. The corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is 16.2 percent, up about 1.1 percentage points.