Market Outlook

 

Oil Crops Outlook: July 2021

Summary

 

2020/21 South American Soybean Exports Lowered on Drought and Decreased Chinese Demand

USDA has lowered its soybean export forecast for Argentina and Brazil for the 2020/21 marketing year by 2.65 and 3 million metric tons, respectively. The expected decrease comes on the heels of drought conditions in Argentina limiting the ability of exports to reach the port for shipment. Additionally, weaker demand from China’s crush sector has decreased the need for soybean imports from Brazil. As such, 2020/21 exports from Argentina and Brazil are forecast at 3.7 and 83 million metric tons. Although China is expected to draw down its soybean stocks to account for less imports from Brazil, ending stocks in both Argentina and Brazil are expected to increase in both 2020/21 and 2021/22 from last month’s forecast as shown in the graph below.

 

See the Oil Crops Outlook.