Rice Outlook, January 2018 (summary)
U.S. 2017/18 Domestic and Residual Use Forecast Boosted; Exports Lowered
This month, USDA raised its 2017/18 domestic and residual use forecast 5.0 million cwt to 120.0 million cwt based on lower than expected December 1 rice stocks. The export forecast was lowered 3.0 million cwt to 100.0 million cwt, largely based on a slower-than-expected shipment pace through December to Western Hemisphere markets. On the supply side, the production forecast was lowered fractionally to 178.2 million cwt due to a lower area estimate. In contrast, imports were raised 0.4 million cwt to a record 24.9 million cwt, largely based on stronger-than-expected imports the first 4 months of the market year. The season-average farm price for long-grain was lowered, while it was raised for medium- and short-grain rice.
Production forecasts for 2017/18 were raised for the Philippines, Pakistan, Ecuador, and Russia, with total 2017/18 production forecast at 484.7 million tons, 0.5 percent below the year-earlier record. Global rice consumption is projected at a record 481.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.15 million tons above 2016/17. Global ending stocks in 2017/18 are projected at 141.1 million tons, 3.0 million tons above a year earlier and the highest since 2000/01. Global rice trade in 2018 is projected at 46.2 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous forecast but 0.6 million tons below a year earlier. Export forecasts were raised for China and India, but lowered for the United States. Export price quotes from Thailand and Vietnam were little changed from a month earlier, while milled rice export price quotes increased.