Market Outlook

See the latest Cotton & Wool Outlook report.

World Cotton Stock Decline Slows in 2022/23

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2022/23 (August-July) indicate a slight decline in global cotton ending stocks, compared with 2021/22, as mill use remains above production. World stocks are projected at 82.8 million bales at the end of 2022/23, the lowest in 4 years. This season’s stock decline is led by the United States and India, although moderated somewhat by a projected increase for Brazil. China—the largest stockholder—is forecast to account for 44 percent of the 2022/23 global cotton stock total, while Brazil and India contribute an additional 16 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Global cotton production is forecast nearly 4 percent higher at 121.3 million bales in 2022/23, the result of increased area. World cotton mill use is projected marginally lower at 121.5 million bales, as inflationary pressures impact the global economy. World cotton trade, however, is expected to rebound to its second highest on record, with the United States and Brazil the largest exporters. Meanwhile, elevated cotton prices are expected to continue in 2022/23 as the global stocks-to-use ratio remains at one of the lowest levels of the previous 10 years.