Cotton and Wool Outlook: September 2020
Global 2020/21 Cotton Stock Increase Led by India
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that global cotton ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 103.8 million bales, nearly 4.5 percent above 2019/20. Stocks are forecast at their second highest on record behind only 2014/15, as world cotton production exceeds mill use for the second consecutive year in 2020/21 (fig. 1). This season’s stock increase is largely attributable to rising supplies in India—where stocks are projected to climb 20 percent. As a result, 2020/21 world cotton prices are expected to remain near last season’s relatively low level.
World cotton production is forecast at a 4-year low (117.2 million bales) in 2020/21. Global cotton mill use is projected to rise 10 percent from a 16-year low to 112.7 million bales, as the world economy is expected to rebound in 2020/21. Meanwhile, global cotton trade is projected to increase slightly this season and help support the mill use growth. World exports are forecast at 41.7 million bales in 2020/21, the highest since 2012/13 and the third highest on record.
See the Cotton and Wool Outlook.