Cotton and Wool Outlook, June 2019
Global Cotton Stocks Projected Lowest Since 2011/12
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2019/20 indicate that world cotton ending stocks are forecast at their lowest in 8 years. Global stocks are projected at 77.3 million bales for 2019/20, marginally below 2018/19 but 29.5 million bales below the record set just 5 years ago (fig. 1). World stocks totaled 106.7 million bales at the end of 2014/15, with China accounting for 62 percent of the total. Government policies in China resulted in surplus stock accumulations in their national reserve, but subsequent policies reduced these supplies and have led to lower global stocks.
For 2019/20, cotton stocks in China are forecast lower at 31.5 million bales—41 percent of the world total. Outside of China, cotton stocks are expected to rise 6 percent to nearly 46 million bales, with stock increases in Brazil and the United States largely accounting for the gain. For Brazil, stocks are projected to reach a record 12.5 million bales (16 percent of the total) in 2019/20, resulting from an estimated record crop for 2018/19 and another large crop projected for 2019/20. For the United States, cotton stocks are forecast at 6.4 million bales, the highest since 2007/08.