Market Outlook

 

Feed Outlook: September 2020

Summary

 

Corn Crop Reduced by 379 Million Bushels

As a result of a re-survey of harvested corn acres in Iowa, the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) September Crop Production drastically lowered expectations for the 2020/21 corn crop. U.S. production is lowered 379 million bushels, resulting in a U.S. crop of 14.9 billion bushels. Yield is lowered 3.3 bushels per acre to 178.5 bushels. Feed and residual and food, seed and industrial (FSI) use are each reduced by 100 million bushels, while exports are raised 100 million. The projected price is raised $0.40 per bushel this month to $3.50.

A shift in corn exports is projected for Ukraine, the EU (mainly by Romania), and Russia in favor of the United States and Brazil. For the United States, corn exports projections for 2020/21 got a boost, despite lower supplies, based on price-competitiveness going forward, reduced supplies in competitor countries, and high outstanding sales. U.S exports are reduced for 2019/20, reflecting a slowdown in sales in August.

While coarse grain output is reduced for the United States, foreign coarse grain production is projected 5.5 million tons higher. Much of the increase is for Brazilian corn and Russian barley. Partly offsetting corn are reductions for the European Union (EU), Ukrainian, Canadian, and Russian. The Chinese hog industry continues to recover, thereby expanding its demand for corn. A torrid pace of meat exports to China boosts Brazilian livestock sector demand for corn animal feed. Global and foreign corn stocks are reduced, although foreign corn stocks less China are slightly up.

See the Feed Outlook.