Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, January 2018 (summary)
Dairy: With stagnant growth in milk cow numbers and yield per cow last month, the milk production estimate for 2017 has been lowered to 215.5 billion pounds. Slower growth in cow inventories and milk per cow at the end of 2017 and lower prices have motivated a reduction of 0.5 billion pounds in the 2018 milk production forecast to 218.8 billion. 2018 imports on both milk-fat and skim-solids bases are forecast slightly lower at 6.0 and 5.9 billion pounds, respectively, while exports are forecast slightly higher at 9.5 and 42.0 billion pounds, respectively. Domestic use is forecast 0.8 billion pounds lower in 2018 than last month’s forecast on both milk-fat and skim-solids bases. Product price forecasts for 2018 have been lowered across the board as a result of lower expected demand; the Class III and Class IV prices are forecast at $14.25-$15.05 and $13.55-$14.45 per cwt, respectively, while the all-milk price is forecast at $15.80-$16.60.