Feed Outlook No. (FDS-05a01) 26 pp

January 2005

Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn: An Application of the Futures Price Forecasting Model

The 2002 Farm Act provides for counter-cyclical payments when prices are below specified levels. Producers and policy analysts have a need to forecast counter-cyclical payments to plan for these program benefits/outlays. A futures price forecasting model provides forecasts of the counter-cyclical payment rate for corn in conjunction with forecasts for the season-average price received.

Keywords: Corn, counter-cyclical payments, marketing, futures prices, producer price received, season-average price, forecasting

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