Publications

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  • Oil Crops Outlook: May 2017

    OCS-17E, May 12, 2017

    Surplus of U.S. soybean stocks may grow in 2017/18.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: November 2012

    OCS-12K, November 13, 2012

    ERS -- working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies -- conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: November 2013

    OCS-13K, November 13, 2013

    U.S. Soybean Exports Forecast Boosted by Strong Sales, Improved Crop.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: November 2014

    OCS-14K, November 13, 2014

    Robust soybean meal exports propel strong domestic use of soybeans.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: November 2016

    OCS-16K, November 14, 2016

    Modest Pace for U.S. Export Sales of Soybean Meal Tempers Crushing Gains.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: November 2017

    OCS-17K, November 14, 2017

    Export competition suppresses expansion of U.S. soybean sales.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: October 2012

    OCS-12J, October 12, 2012

    ERS--working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies--conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: October 2014

    OCS-14J, October 15, 2014

    Soybean prices depressed by historically high supply.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: October 2015

    OCS-15J, October 14, 2015

    Lower soybean carryover and production trims 2015/16 ending stocks outlook.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: October 2016

    OCS-16J, October 14, 2016

    U.S. Soybean Exports To Get a Boost from Record Harvest

  • Oil Crops Outlook: October 2017

    OCS-17j, October 16, 2017

    Soybean Supplies for 2017/18 are Curtailed by Lower Carryover Stocks

  • Oil Crops Outlook: September 2012

    OCS-12I, September 13, 2012

    ERS--working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies--conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: September 2013

    OCS-13I, September 16, 2013

    Each month,the Oil Crops Outlook analyzes the major changes and events in the world market for oilseeds and oilseed products.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: September 2014

    OCS-14I, September 15, 2014

    Record soybean yields to raise season-ending stocks to 8-year high.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: September 2015

    OCS-15I, September 15, 2015

    Lower U.S. beginning stocks of soybeans offsets higher crop.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: September 2016

    OCS-16I, September 14, 2016

    Record U.S. soybean use may not keep pace with big production gains.

  • On the Doorstep of the Information Age: Recent Adoption of Precision Agriculture

    EIB-80, August 24, 2011

    The adoption of precision agriculture, which encompasses a suite of farm-level information technologies, can improve the efficiency of input use and reduce environmental harm from the overapplication of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. Still, the adoption of precision agricultural technologies and practices has been less rapid than envisioned a decade ago. Using Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data collected over the past 10 years, this report examines trends in the adoption of four key information technologies-yield monitors, variable-rate application technologies, guidance systems, and GPS maps-in the production of major field crops. While yield monitoring is now used on over 40 percent of U.S. grain crop acres, very few producers have adopted GPS maps or variable-rate input application technologies.

  • Possible Implications for U.S. Agriculture From Adoption of Select Dietary Guidelines

    ERR-31, November 20, 2006

    To help Americans meet nutritional requirements while staying within caloric recommendations, the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans encourage consumption of fruits, vegetables, whole-grain products, and fat-free or low-fat milk or milk products. This report provides one view of the potential implications for U.S. agriculture if Americans changed their current consumption patterns to meet some of those guidelines. For Americans to meet the fruit, vegetable, and whole-grain recommendations, domestic crop acreage would need to increase by an estimated 7.4 million harvested acres, or 1.7 percent of total U.S. cropland in 2002. To meet the dairy guidelines, consumption of milk and milk products would have to increase by 66 percent; an increase of that magnitude would likely require an increase in the number of dairy cows as well as increased feed grains and, possibly, increased acreage devoted to dairy production.

  • Potential Farm-Level Effects of Eliminating Direct Payments

    EIB-103, November 16, 2012

    A number of Farm Act proposals call for ending the direct payment program. ERS analysis suggests that for the majority of farms receiving direct payments, this would not result in substantial decline in financial well-being.

  • Price Determination for Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government Programs

    TB-1878, August 02, 1999

    Annual models for U.S. farm prices for corn and wheat are developed based on market factors as well as government agricultural commodity programs. The pricing relationships utilize a stocks-to-use modeling framework to capture the effects of market supply and demand factors on price determination. This formulation is augmented by factors that represent the changing role of agricultural policies, particularly government price support and stockholding programs. For wheat, international market effects as well as wheat feed use and related cross-commodity pricing considerations also are included. Model properties and model performance measures are presented. Additionally, recent price-forecasting applications of the models are discussed. The relatively simple structure of the estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves to use in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of supply and demand conditions. In particular, the models have been implemented into USDA's short-term market analysis and long-term baseline projections. In these applications, the models provide an analytical framework to forecast prices and a vehicle for making consistency checks among the Department's supply, demand, and price forecasts.