Publications

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  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: September 2011

    SSSM-277, September 15, 2011

    On September 12, 2011, the USDA released its latest U.S. and Mexico sugar supply and use estimates for fiscal year (FY) 2011 and projections for FY 2012 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. For FY 2011, the USDA increased its estimate of tariff-rate quota (TRQ) shortfall and accounted for early entry of imports from the FY 2012 raw sugar TRQ and deferral of some FY 2011 raw sugar TRQ imports until the first month of the next fiscal year. For FY 2012, the USDA reduced its projection of beet sugar production to 4.575 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a reduction of 175,000 STRV, or 3.7 percent, compared with last month's projection. The reduction was made in response to lower sugarbeet production forecasts by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). NASS forecast sugarbeet production at 29.180 million tons, a reduction of 1.213 million tons, or 4.0 percent compared with last month's forecast. NASS cited wet field conditions, along with disease and hail damage, in half of the sugarbeet growing areas as reasons for reduced production prospects. No change was made to the FY 2012 cane sugar production forecast. Trade and total use projections remained the same as last month's as well. Ending stocks projected for FY 2012 are decreased 215,000 STRV (lower beet sugar production combined with fewer beginning stocks) to 1.127 million STRV. The implied stocks-to-use ratio is 9.8 percent, a drop of 1.9 percentage points from last month. Supply and use estimates and forecasts in Mexico remained the same as those for last month.

  • Nitrogen in Agricultural Systems: Implications for Conservation Policy

    ERR-127, September 22, 2011

    Nitrogen is an important agricultural input that is critical for crop production. However, the introduction of large amounts of nitrogen into the environment has a number of undesirable impacts on water, terrestrial, and atmospheric resources. This report explores the use of nitrogen in U.S. agriculture and assesses changes in nutrient management by farmers that may improve nitrogen use efficiency. It also reviews a number of policy approaches for improving nitrogen management and identifies issues affecting their potential performance. Findings reveal that about two-thirds of U.S. cropland is not meeting three criteria for good nitrogen management related to the rate, timing, and method of application. Several policy approaches, including financial incentives, nitrogen management as a condition of farm program eligibility, and regulation, could induce farmers to improve their nitrogen management and reduce nitrogen losses to the environment.

  • Estimating the Substitution of Distillers' Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex

    FDS-11I01, October 13, 2011

    Corn-based dry-mill ethanol production and its coproducts - notably distillers' dried grains with soluble (DDGS) - have surged in recent years. The report estimates the potential substitution of DDGS for corn and soybean meal in livestock feeding and the impact of substitution upon the U.S. feed complex.

  • Research Investments and Market Structure in the Food Processing, Agricultural Input, and Biofuel Industries Worldwide: Executive Summary

    EIB-90, December 30, 2011

    Meeting growing global demand for food, fiber, and biofuel requires robust investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) from both public and private sectors. This report highlights the major findings of a study examining global R&D spending by private industry in seven agricultural input sectors, food manufacturing, and biofuel and describes the changing structure of these industries. For the full report, see Research Investments and Market Structure in the Food Processing, Agricultural Input, and Biofuel Industries Worldwide, ERR-130. In 2007 (the latest year for which comprehensive estimates are available), the private sector spent $19.7 billion on food and agricultural research (56 percent in food manufacturing and 44 percent in agricultural input sectors) and accounted for about half of total public and private spending on food and agricultural R&D in high-income countries. In R&D related to biofuel, annual private-sector investments are estimated to have reached $1.47 billion worldwide by 2009. Incentives to invest in R&D are influenced by market structure and other factors. Agricultural input industries have undergone significant structural change over the past two decades, with industry concentration on the rise. A relatively small number of large, multinational firms with global R&D and marketing networks account for most R&D in each input industry. Rising market concentration has not generally been associated with increased R&D investment as a percentage of industry sales.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: January 2012

    SSSM-281, January 18, 2012

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects 2011/12 sugar production in Mexico at 5.000 million metric tons (mt), a decrease of 330,000 mt from last month's projection. The forecast is based on lower than expected harvest progress through January 7, 2012 and consequent implications for the rest of the harvest cycle. The USDA lowered its forecast of Mexican sugar imports from 449,000 mt to 310,000 mt. The decrease is attributable to a lower import pace-to-date from the two tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) opened earlier in the year by Mexico and scheduled to close by the end of January. Lower estandar sugar prices in Mexico contributed to the lower than expected fill level. The USDA did not change its forecast of sugar deliveries or ending stock levels. The USDA lowered its forecast of Mexico sugar exports by 469,000 mt to 892,000 mt in order to balance sugar use with the sugar supply reductions.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021

    OCE-121, February 13, 2012

    This report provides longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector through 2021. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2012

    SSSM-282, February 14, 2012

    The Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar (CNDSCA) in Mexico recently published revised supply and use data for 2010/11 and the Secretariat of the Economy (Economia) released full marketing year data for sugar exports and imports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its Mexico supply and balance estimates as a consequence.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2012

    SSSM-283, March 14, 2012

    Based on revised analysis of data from the Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar (CNDSCA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made corrections to its Mexico 2010/11 sugar supply and sweetener use from last month. Sugar for human consumption is estimated at 3.950 million metric tons (mt) and ending stocks are estimated at 759,906 mt. Also, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption is estimated at 1.635 million mt, dry weight.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2012

    FTS-351, March 30, 2012

    USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its March citrus production forecast for marketing year 2011/12 on March 9. Total U.S. citrus production is forecast at 11.6 million tons, down less than 1 percent from 2010/11 and less than 1 percent below the initial October citrus forecast. Production gains for oranges are offset by declines in grapefruit, lemon, and tangerine and mandarin production. NASS forecasts California's 2011/12 all orange crop down 6 percent from last season to 2.3 million tons. This production decline is due to an 8-percent smaller navel crop of 1.8 million tons. California Valencia production is estimated upward to 560,000 tons. The smaller crop has not boosted prices substantially so far this season, but they have remained strong and should increase as supplies dwindle toward the end of the season.

  • U.S. Sugar April 2012

    SSSM-284, April 16, 2012

    On March 30, 2012, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published Prospective Plantings, with forecasts included for planted-area intentions for the 2012/13 U.S. sugarbeet crop. Planted area is forecast at 1.241 million acres. While this amount is less than a percentage point above last year's realized planted area of 1.233 million acres, it is 4.6 percent above last year's intended area projected in March 2011. With the assumption of normal growing conditions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects an additional 130,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) of beet sugar production to occur before the end of the fiscal year (FY) 2012 for a total of 4.655 million STRV. There were no changes from last month for FY 2012 cane sugar production.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2011

    SSSM-270, May 08, 2012

    The two primary determinants of U.S. sugar supply and use over the long-term projection period are the sugar and energy provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act) and reliance on sugar imports from Mexico to maintain a balance in the U.S. sugar market.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: May 2012

    SSSM-285, May 15, 2012

    Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year (FY) 2013 is down 2.4 percent from FY 2012, as lower imports more than offset higher production and beginning stocks. Higher beet sugar production reflects higher area and trend yields, while cane sugar production is nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) reflect the minimum of U.S. commitments to import raw and refined sugar and the projected shortfall. The Secretary of Agriculture will establish the TRQ at a later date. Imports from Mexico are up, mainly due to higher production in Mexico. Total use is up 1 percent.

  • The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis

    ERR-135, May 22, 2012

    ERS examines potential impacts on agriculture of large shifts in the supply of foreign-born labor that might result in the event of substantial changes in U.S. immigration laws or policies.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2012

    AES-74, May 31, 2012

    This outlook report offers, on a quarterly basis, the U.S. agricultural import and export outlook, as well as the year-to-date value and volume of U.S. agricultural exports and imports, by commodity and region.

  • Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: June 2012

    VGS-350, June 28, 2012

    Prices at the point of first sale remain low for most fresh-market vegetables and consumer prices also fell in the first 5 months of 2012. Volumes are strong as mild winter and early spring temperatures allowed early planting in many areas. Per capita use of fresh-market vegetables fell less than 1 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year.

  • Cotton and Wool Outlook: July 2012

    CWS-12E, July 12, 2012

    The latest USDA projections for U.S. and world cotton supply and demand are presented and discussed in this report. Relevant fiber data tables and charts also are provided.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: July 2012

    SSSM-287, July 16, 2012

    The Sugar and Sweetener Outlook reviews the sugar and sweetener outlook for the United States and Mexico, emphasizing changes made in the most recent month's edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

  • Dynamic PEATSim Model Documenting Its Use in Analyzing Global Commodity Markets

    TB-1933, July 18, 2012

    This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA's Economic Research Service. PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The model, consistent with economic theory, provides a flexible country and commodity aggregation and accounts for cross-commodity linkages and interactions. The report includes a presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the revamped model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents an application of the model to illustrate its dynamic structure and to demonstrate the differential behavior.

  • Cotton and Wool Outlook: August 2012

    CWS-12F, August 13, 2012

    The latest USDA projections for U.S. and world cotton supply and demand are presented and discussed in this report. Relevant fiber data tables and charts also are provided.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: August 2012

    SSSM-288, August 15, 2012

    The Sugar and Sweetener Outlook reviews the sugar and sweetener outlook for the United States and Mexico, emphasizing changes made in the most recent month's edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.