Publications

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  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: June 2016

    FTS-362, June 30, 2016

    Sweet cherry and prune crops are forecast down from last season. Anticipated price gains from reduced California peach supplies mitigated by large supplies in South Carolina and Georgia and lower prices for off-season imports this winter.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2012

    FTS-351, March 30, 2012

    USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its March citrus production forecast for marketing year 2011/12 on March 9. Total U.S. citrus production is forecast at 11.6 million tons, down less than 1 percent from 2010/11 and less than 1 percent below the initial October citrus forecast. Production gains for oranges are offset by declines in grapefruit, lemon, and tangerine and mandarin production. NASS forecasts California's 2011/12 all orange crop down 6 percent from last season to 2.3 million tons. This production decline is due to an 8-percent smaller navel crop of 1.8 million tons. California Valencia production is estimated upward to 560,000 tons. The smaller crop has not boosted prices substantially so far this season, but they have remained strong and should increase as supplies dwindle toward the end of the season.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2015

    FTS-358, March 27, 2015

    A fractional decline in domestic citrus production is forecast, but gains in mandarins' and lemons' production should place downward pressure on grower prices. Winter strawberry supplies are ample.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2016

    FTS-361, March 31, 2016

    The current U.S. citrus crop is forecast down 12 percent from the 2014/15 season, with reduced supplies expected for most major citrus crops except for tangerine and mandarin production. Citrus grower prices fairly strong.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: March 2018

    FTS-366, March 29, 2018

    At the current forecast of 6.16 million tons, the 2017/18 U.S. citrus crop is down 21 percent percent from the 2016/17 season, resulting in higher citrus prices in the domestic market.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2007

    FTS-32801, September 10, 2007

    U.S. imports of fresh fruit and vegetables have increased substantially, particularly since the 1990s. Dominant suppliers are the North American Free Trade Agreement region for fresh vegetables, the Southern Hemisphere countries for off-season fresh fruit, and equatorial countries for bananas. The strong growth in the volume and variety of fresh produce imports has allowed U.S. consumers to eat more fruit and vegetables and enjoy year-round access to various fresh produce.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2014

    FTS-357, September 26, 2014

    Abundant apple supplies will move to markets in the 2014/15 marketing year, putting downward pressure on U.S. apple prices. The 2014 U.S. pear crop is forecast 9 percent smaller than a year ago.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2015

    FTS-360, September 30, 2015

    The Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook report analyzes supply-and-demand conditions in the U.S. fruit and tree nuts markets and provides projections on market conditions for 2015 apple, pear, cranberry, grape and peach crops as well as 2014/15 citrus crops, both fresh and processed markets. It includes an additional section on U.S. Food Safety Modernization Act.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2016

    FTS-363, September 30, 2016

    U.S. apple production to increase this fall, but lack of competing supplies from previous harvest likely to hold early-season prices strong. This large apple crop will coincide with smaller pear crop this fall.

  • Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook: September 2017

    FTS-365, September 29, 2017

    U.S. apple production to decline this fall and will coincide with a smaller pear crop. Increased storage-apple supplies from previous harvest, however, will likely mitigate upward pressure on early-season prices.

  • Fruit and Vegetable Planting Restrictions: Analyzing the Processing Cucumber Market

    VGS-342-02, February 10, 2011

    This report highlights the anticipated consequences of the 2008 Farm Act's Planting Transferability Pilot Program (PTPP) on processing (pickling) cucumber plantings. PTPP allows program crop growers in seven Upper Midwestern States to reduce base acres and plant select vegetables for processing on those acres without reducing Government payments on their remaining base acres.

  • Genetically Engineered Crop Varieties Gain Further Acreage Share in 2004

    Amber Waves, September 01, 2004

    GE varieties of soybeans, corn, and cotton have been available commercially since 1996. Since then, their rate of use by U.S. farmers has climbed most years, including 2004.

  • Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States

    ERR-162, February 20, 2014

    Farmer adoption of GE crops is associated with time savings, lower insecticide use, and more conservation tillage. Consumer acceptance of GE ingredients varies across countries, product characteristics, and level of information.

  • Genetically Modified Alfalfa Production in the United States

    Amber Waves, May 01, 2017

    In 2013, approximately 18 million acres of alfalfa—with a production value of $10.7 billion—were harvested in the United States. Weed infestations can reduce alfalfa yields, lower forage quality, and increase the severity of insect infestations. Planting genetically modified, herbicide tolerant alfalfa allows for more effective and flexible weed control without damaging crops.

  • Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices

    WRS-0801, July 23, 2008

    World market prices for major food commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have risen sharply to historic highs of more than 60 percent above levels just 2 years ago. Many factors have contributed to the runup in food commodity prices. Some factors reflect trends of slower growth in production and more rapid growth in demand, which have contributed to a tightening of world balances of grains and oilseeds over the last decade. Recent factors that have further tightened world markets include increased global demand for biofuels feedstocks and adverse weather conditions in 2006 and 2007 in some major grain and oilseed producing areas. Other factors that have added to global food commodity price inflation include the declining value of the U.S. dollar, rising energy prices, increasing agricultural costs of production, growing foreign exchange holdings by major food importing countries, and policies adopted recently by some exporting and importing countries to mitigate their own food price inflation.

  • Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply

    ERR-174, September 18, 2014

    ERS examines hypothetical economic and agricultural sector responses to changes in key drivers of supply and demand in the future-agricultural productivity, population, and per capita income.

  • Global Ethanol Mandates Provide Opportunities for U.S. Ethanol Exports

    Amber Waves, December 04, 2017

    A recent ERS report finds that a growing number of countries are adopting ethanol use mandates or setting targets for ethanol use. In many cases, these coutries will have to rely on imports, including from the United States, to achieve these goals.

  • Global Macroeconomic Developments Drive Downturn in U.S. Agricultural Exports

    AES-94, July 12, 2016

    The macroeconomic outlook underlying the 2016 USDA agricultural projections indicates a slowdown in global income growth and a stronger dollar, implying smaller projected gains in agricultural trade and declines in U.S. market share.

  • Global Trade Patterns in Fruits and Vegetables

    WRS-0406, June 01, 2004

    International trade in fruits and vegetables has expanded at a higher rate than trade in other agricultural commodities, particularly since the 1980s. Not only has world trade in fruits and vegetables gained prominence, but the variety of commodities has expanded. Over the years, three regions-the European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) area, and Asia (East, Southeast, and South)-have remained as both the major destinations and sources of supply. A substantial share of their trade is intraregional, particularly that of the EU. All the three regions, however, depend on Southern Hemisphere countries for imports of juices and off-season fresh fruits, and on equatorial regions for bananas, the leading fresh fruit import. In addition to global north-south trading, due mostly to the counter-cyclical seasons of the two hemispheres, Asian trade has also become much more important since the 1980s as incomes and populations have grown and policies changed.

  • Grain Prices Impact Entire Livestock Production Cycle

    Amber Waves, March 01, 2009

    Between 2006 and 2008, feed costs nearly doubled and are expected to result in lower meat and dairy production in 2009. Feed prices have declined since mid-2008 and are expected to be lower in 2009, but the biological timeline of livestock production means meat producers are limited in what they can do in the short run to change production. Changes in U.S. livestock-industry structure and the use of alternative feeds, such as byproducts from ethanol production, will help reduce the impact of higher input costs on livestock producers.