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  • Wheat Outlook: March 2012

    WHS-12C, March 13, 2012

    U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 20 million bushels lower this month as lower food use is more than offset by higher exports.

  • Wheat Outlook: February 2012

    WHS-12B, February 13, 2012

    U. S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month. Exports are raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat.

  • Wheat Outlook: January 2012

    WHS-12A, January 17, 2012

    U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as reductions in expected domestic use mostly offset higher projected exports. Food use is projected 5 million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North American Millers' Association for July-September 2011.

  • Long-Term Growth Prospects for Wheat Production in Afghanistan

    WHS-11L01, January 04, 2012

    Given expected increases in demand, imports are likely to grow in coming years even if Afghanistan's rapid post-1990 production growth is sustained, suggesting growing dependence on supplies from Pakistan and other countries.

  • Wheat Outlook: December 2011

    WHS-11LT, December 13, 2011

    U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced prospects for exports this month. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels with reductions projected for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat.

  • Wheat Outlook: August 2010

    WHS-10H01, August 25, 2010

    This report provides the results of ERS research on the economic consequences of ending the USDA Karnal bunt certification program for U.S. exports to countries that ban import of wheat from countries known to have the disease. USDA currently issues certificates that U.S. wheat shipments are from areas where KB is not known to occur.

  • Wheat Outlook: May 2010

    WHS-10D01, May 03, 2010

    This report analyzes the role imports have played in stabilizing Afghan wheat prices by mitigating the effects of shortfalls in domestic production and assesses whether Afghanistan's internal wheat markets are sufficiently connected with international markets to cope with volatility in domestic output.

  • Wheat Outlook: March 2009

    WHS-09C01, March 24, 2009

    The recent historic rise in farm input costs and wheat prices has had economic effects on the U.S. wheat sector. A cumulative distribution of forecasted production costs for wheat farms shows that current high (but falling) wheat prices will allow a greater share of producers to cover their production costs in 2008 (90 percent) than in 2004 (82 percent), despite higher input costs in 2008. However, if farm-gate prices for wheat continue to fall into 2009, and if prices for inputs do not drop off similarly, many more wheat producers may find themselves unable to cover production costs and the U.S. wheat sector may see further attrition of planted area.

  • Wheat Backgrounder

    WHS-05K01, December 29, 2005

    U.S. wheat plantings are about 30 percent lower than in the early 1980s. Wheat demand fell with changing consumer preferences and strong competition in export markets. Low returns led to the substitution of competing crops for wheat, particularly on the Plains. Farms depending on wheat sales for over half of their receipts have much lower farm incomes and financial assets compared with other farms producing wheat.

  • Hard White Wheat At A Crossroads

    WHS-04K01, December 14, 2004

    This article provides background on the forces that led to the expansion of hard white wheat (HWW) production, its milling and baking qualities that make it particularly suited for certain products, the adaptation of the marketing system to preserve its identity, and the prospects for HWW's production expansion. Up to now, HWW sales have been largely confined to the domestic market because the volume of production is not sufficiently large to sustain steady exports. HWW's end-use characteristics are particularly suited for whole-wheat products, pan breads, tortillas, and certain kinds of oriental noodles. Continuing expansion of HWW production would depend on the development of new, higher-yielding varieties that are more tolerant to sprout damage-a major problem in 2004-and continuation of the government incentive program.

  • Wheat and Barley Policies in Japan

    WHS-04IO1, November 05, 2004

    This report provides a detailed description and analysis of policies used by Japan to support its wheat and barley producers. Domestic policies include direct payments for production, subsidies to plant wheat and barley on diverted rice paddies, subsidized hazard insurance, and subsidies to increase farm size. At the border, a tariff-rate-quota is administered by a government state-trading enterprise, which applies markups to imported wheat prices when it sells the wheat inside Japan. The proceeds are used to fund the direct payments made to Japan's farmers. If Japan's policies were liberalized, production in Japan would fall, but consumers and taxpayers in Japan would reap large gains.

  • China's Wheat Economy: Current Trends and Prospects for Imports

    WHS-04D01, May 17, 2004

    The last 10 years have been a period of volatility for wheat production and trade in China. This report provides an overview of current wheat production and consumption trends in China, including factors that contributed to slumping imports in recent years. It projects that China will regain its status as a net wheat importer, with imports rising sharply in the next year or two but then falling back to modest levels after that.

  • Wheat: Background and Issues for Farm Legislation

    WHS-0701-01, August 01, 2001

    Congress is considering new farm legislation to replace the expiring Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996. As background for these deliberations, this report provides information on supply, demand, and prices in the U.S. wheat sector and examines alternative policy choices.