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  • Feed Outlook: September 2015

    FDS-15I, September 15, 2015

    The September 2015 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2015/16 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: September 2016

    FDS-16I, September 14, 2016

    The September 2016 Feed Outlook report contains projections for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: September 2017

    FDS-17i, September 14, 2017

    The September 2017 Feed Outlook report contains projections for 2016/17 and 2017/18 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Forecasting Feed Grain Prices in a Changing Environment

    FDS-04F-01, July 13, 2004

    Structural change has been occurring throughout the feed grains sector and has affected commodity markets and price forecasting relationships. Structural changes that have affected feed grains stem from government policy such as the 1996 Farm Act, international trade agreements such as NAFTA, and changing consumer preferences. A statistical test of structural change is provided along with price forecasting models for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. The models provide a framework to forecast season-average, farm-level prices and gauge the consistency of supply, demand, and price forecasts.

  • Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn: An Application of the Futures Price Forecasting Model

    FDS-05A-01, January 28, 2005

    The 2002 Farm Act provides for counter-cyclical payments when prices are below specified levels. Producers and policy analysts have a need to forecast counter-cyclical payments to plan for these program benefits/outlays. A futures price forecasting model provides forecasts of the counter-cyclical payment rate for corn in conjunction with forecasts for the season-average price received.

  • Implications of an Early Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates

    FDS-12F-01, July 03, 2012

    An early corn harvest-before the August 31 end of the previous marketing year-creates an overlap of supply-and-use data between the old and new marketing years that can alter the patterns of corn use and ending stocks, with implications for official USDA projections and estimates.

  • Is China's Corn Market at a Turning Point?

    FDS-04C01, May 13, 2004

    Many analysts see signs that China's corn market is reaching the turning point in a decade-long cycle. China curtailed corn exports in calendar year 2004 and may begin to import corn during marketing year 2004/05. Reduced Chinese exports are also driving U.S. prices higher. Higher prices and increased shipping rates have kept U.S. corn out of the China market, but growing demand and limited production capacity will eventually make China a net importer of corn. China's reduction in exports will expand opportunities for U.S. exports.

  • Issues and Prospects in Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Futures Markets

    FDS-09G-01, August 05, 2009

    The past 5 years have seen large increases in trading of corn, soybean, and wheat futures contracts by nontraditional traders, a trend that coincided with historic price increases for these commodities. These events have raised questions about whether changes in the composition of traders participating have contributed to movements in commodity prices beyond the effects of market fundamentals. Evidence suggests the link between futures and cash prices for some commodity markets may have weakened (poor convergence), making it more difficult for traditional traders to use futures markets to manage risk. This report discusses the role and objective of new futures traders compared with those of traditional futures traders and seeks to determine if the composition of traders in futures markets has contributed to convergence problems. Market activity is analyzed by focusing on positions of both traditional and new market traders, price levels, price volatility, and volume and open interest trends. Convergence of futures and cash prices is examined, along with implications and prospects for risk management by market participants. The report also discusses the implications for market performance and the regulatory response of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

  • Livestock Feeding and Feed Imports in the European Union-A Decade of Change

    FDS-0602-01, July 02, 2002

    This report examines events and policy changes in the livestock sectors of the European Union during the 1990s and their impacts on trade in feedstuffs. Lower grain prices and a declining euro together with several animal disease epidemics resulted in significant increases in the feeding of grains and oilseed meals and a reduction in the feeding of nongrain feed ingredients.

  • Market Issues and Prospects for U.S. Distillers' Grains Supply, Use, and Price Relationships

    FDS-10K-01, December 09, 2010

    Growth in corn dry-mill ethanol production has surged in the past several years, simultaneously creating a coproduct-distillers' grains (DDGS). Many in the U.S. feed industry were concerned about the size of this new feed source and whether it could be used entirely by the feed industry, but they also worried about the price discovery process for the product. The authors of this report provide a transparent methodology to estimate U.S. supply and consumption of DDGS. Potential domestic and export use of U.S. DDGS exceeds current production and is likely to exceed future production as ethanol production continues to grow. The authors identify the DDGS price discovery process along with the price relationships of distillers' grains, corn, and soybean meal.

  • Prospects for China's Corn Yield Growth and Imports

    FDS-14D-01, April 28, 2014

    The pace of growth in China's corn yield is a key determinant of its future corn imports. Yields are growing, but more slowly than U.S. yields. Trends suggest China's corn consumption, driven by feed demand, will outpace production growth.

  • Recent Convergence Performance of Futures and Cash Prices for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

    FDS-13L-01, December 30, 2013

    From 2005 to 2011, there were growing discrepancies between expiring futures prices and cash prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans--a problem known as non-convergence. Changes to futures contracts have improved convergence since 2011.

  • U.S.-Mexico Corn Trade During the NAFTA Era: New Twists to an Old Story

    FDS-04D-01, May 01, 2004

    Although the growing U.S.-Mexico corn trade has changed significantly since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, it retains many of its pre-trade-liberalization characteristics. The majority of U.S. corn exports to Mexico still consists of yellow corn, which is primarily used as an ingredient in animal feed. From 1998 to 2002, the United States also exported to Mexico substantial quantities of white corn, which is used to make tortillas, but these exports have since diminished, possibly due to Mexican Government support for domestically produced white corn. The number of agricultural producers in Mexico declined substantially during the 1990s, but the Mexican corn sector still features a large number of small-scale producers, whose efforts are also supplemented by government payments. Broader access to U.S. yellow corn is fostering the expansion of hog and poultry production in Mexico, while Mexico's large flour companies are increasing their role in tortilla production, not only in Mexico but also in the United States.

  • Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields

    FDS-13G-01, July 26, 2013

    Weather during the growing season is critical for corn and soybean yields. Models for U.S. corn and soybean yields provide estimates of the effects of weather on yields for those crops.