Publications

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  • Prospects for China's Corn Yield Growth and Imports

    FDS-14D-01, April 28, 2014

    The pace of growth in China's corn yield is a key determinant of its future corn imports. Yields are growing, but more slowly than U.S. yields. Trends suggest China's corn consumption, driven by feed demand, will outpace production growth.

  • Rice Outlook: September 2013

    RCS-13I, September 16, 2013

    The September 2013 Rice Situation & Outlook report will contain projections for the 2013/14 U.S. and global rice markets. The report is done 12 times a year and relies on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Rising Grain Exports by the Former Soviet Union Region

    WHS-13A01, February 04, 2013

    The three major grain-producing countries of the former Soviet Union--Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine--have become a large grain-exporting region. This report examines the causes and provides the 10-year outlook for the region's exports.

  • South Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement Benefits U.S. Dairy Trade

    Amber Waves, July 07, 2014

    Dairy production and consumption have expanded rapidly in South Korea. The South Korea-United States (KORUS) free trade agreement (FTA) is expected to promote trade through the reduction or elimination of tariffs. U.S. dairy exports have become more competitive recently, and the FTA is expected to add to the competitiveness of U.S. dairy products.

  • Sugar & Sweeteners Outlook: February 2013

    SSSM-294, February 14, 2013

    The Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook for February 2013 reviews the sugar and sweetener outlook for the United States and Mexico, emphasizing changes made in the February 2013 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Also included is a special chapter on USDA long term projections of sugar supply and use in the United States and Mexico through 2022/23.

  • U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth: The Past, Challenges, and the Future

    Amber Waves, September 08, 2015

    Since 1948, U.S. agricultural productivity has more than doubled, enabling farmers to feed more people with less land and labor. Output growth is attributed to the growth in total inputs used and in technology advancement, or total factor productivity (TFP). Agricultural output growth today is more dependent on TFP growth than in the past.

  • U.S. Agricultural Trading Relationship With China Grows

    Amber Waves, May 04, 2015

    China's "new normal" presents opportunities and challenges for U.S. agricultural exports to China.

  • U.S. Beef and Pork Consumption Projected To Rebound

    Amber Waves, September 06, 2016

    Beef production and pork production are projected to grow by 11.7 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively, from 2016 to 2015. As a result, beef and pork prices are projected to drop over the period, driving up demand for beef and pork and reversing a multiyear decline in U.S. meat consumption.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007

    WAOB-981, February 02, 1998

    This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2007. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The baseline assumes no shocks and is based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The projections assume that current agricultural law of the 1996 Farm Act remains in effect throughout the baseline. Also, the baseline assumes that the Southeast Asian currency devaluations and related economic slowdowns are confined to that region, affecting growth through 2000, with policy reforms and international financial support leading to a recovery of economic growth in subsequent years. Despite the near-term slowdown in Southeast Asian economies, generally favorable global economic growth is projected in the baseline which, combined with liberalized trade associated with both the GATT agreement and unilateral policy reforms, supports strong growth in global trade and U.S. agricultural exports. Greater market orientation in the domestic agricultural sector under the 1996 Farm Act puts U.S. farmers in a favorable position for competing in the global marketplace. A tightening of the balance between productive capacity and projected demands results in rising nominal market prices, increasing farm income, and stability in the financial condition of the agricultural sector. Management of risk will be important for farmers, reflecting the reduced role of the Government in the sector under the 1996 Farm Act. Consumer food prices are projected to continue a long term trend of rising less than the general inflation rate. The baseline projections presented are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 1997, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmental analysis.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2008

    WAOB-991, February 17, 1999

    This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2008. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The baseline assumes no shocks and is based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The projections assume that current agricultural law of the 1996 Farm Act remains in effect throughout the baseline. The baseline projections presented are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 1998, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmental analysis. This year's baseline reflects the effects of a number of international factors which have combined to weaken the U.S. agricultural trade outlook for the next 10 years, either by reducing global demand or increasing world supplies. Global supplies for many agricultural commodities are initially large, and expanding production potential in a number of foreign countries result in strong export competition throughout the baseline. The economic crisis in Asia and, to a lesser extent, the near-term economic contraction in Russia contribute to a prolonged period of weak global agricultural demand. Additionally, revised assumptions for China result in lower grain import demand through the baseline. In the initial years of the baseline, much of the U.S. agriculture sector is adjusting to a combination of weak demand and large global supplies. In the longer run, strong export competition and only moderate grain import demand in China continue to influence the baseline projections. Nonetheless, more favorable long-term global economic growth supports gains in trade and U.S. agricultural exports in the last half of the baseline, resulting in rising nominal market prices, gains in farm income, and increased stability in the financial condition of the U.S. agricultural sector.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009

    WAOB-001, February 23, 2000

    This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2009. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. The baseline assumes that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather or other factors affecting global supply and demand. The projections assume that current agricultural law of the 1996 Farm Act remains in effect throughout the baseline. The baseline projections presented are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 1999, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmental analysis.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2010

    WAOB-011, February 22, 2001

    This report provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2010. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2011

    WAOB-021, February 21, 2002

    This report provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2011. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2012

    WAOB-031, February 10, 2003

    This report provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2012. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2013

    WAOB-041, February 09, 2004

    This report provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2013. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2014

    OCE-2005-1, February 11, 2005

    This report provides longrun (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2014. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2015

    OCE-061, February 10, 2006

    This report, released by the Office of the Chief Economist, provides long-run (10-year) baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2015. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021

    OCE-121, February 13, 2012

    This report provides longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector through 2021. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022

    OCE-131, February 11, 2013

    USDA's longrun projections for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023

    OCE-141, February 13, 2014

    USDA's longrun projections for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.