Publications

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  • Supply Disruptions Cause Price Spikes in Afghanistan’s Wheat Market

    Amber Waves, June 01, 2010

    Growing conditions in Afghanistan suggest a record 2009/10 wheat harvest and a favorable shortrun outlook. Nevertheless, Afghanistan will remain subject to supply disruptions and price spikes as long as its domestic production is highly variable and weak transportation links limit its ability to diversify sources of imported grain.

  • Former Soviet Union Region To Play Larger Role in Meeting World Wheat Needs

    Amber Waves, June 01, 2010

    The next decade is likely to see a major shift in global wheat production and trade. USDA projects that wheat exports by Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan will increase by 50 percent by 2019, and the region could lead the world in wheat exports by the end of the period.

  • Wheat Outlook: August 2010

    WHS-10H01, August 25, 2010

    This report provides the results of ERS research on the economic consequences of ending the USDA Karnal bunt certification program for U.S. exports to countries that ban import of wheat from countries known to have the disease. USDA currently issues certificates that U.S. wheat shipments are from areas where KB is not known to occur.

  • USDA’s Karnal Bunt Regulatory Program Protects U.S. Wheat Exports

    Amber Waves, December 01, 2010

    Many countries free of Karnal bunt impose restrictions on imports of infected wheat. USDA responds by issuing certificates declaring that U.S. wheat shipments are from areas where Karnal bunt is not known to occur.

  • How Retail Beef and Bread Prices Respond to Changes in Ingredient and Input Costs

    ERR-112, February 24, 2011

    The extent to which cost changes pass through a vertically organized production process depends on the value added by each producer in the chain as well as a number of other organizational and marketing factors at each stage of production. Using 36 years of monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics price indices data (1972-2008), we model pass-through behavior for beef and bread, two retail food items with different levels of processing. Both the farm-to-wholesale and wholesale-to-retail price responses are modeled to allow for the presence of structural breaks in the underlying long-term relationships between price series. Broad differences in price behavior are found not only between food categories (retail beef prices respond more to farm-price changes than do retail bread prices) but also across stages in the supply chain. While farm-to-wholesale relationships generally appear to be symmetric, retail prices have a more complicated response behavior. For both bread and beef, the passthrough from wholesale to retail is weaker than that from farm to wholesale.

  • Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again?

    WRS-1103, June 28, 2011

    The report describes the factors that have contributed to the large and rapid increase in agricultural prices during the past year. The report focuses particularly on food commodity prices-which have risen 60 percent since June 2010.

  • Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan

    ERR-121, July 12, 2011

    Using a nationally representative household survey from Afghanistan, ERS analyzes the impact of increases in wheat flour prices before and during the 2007/08 global food price crisis.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2011-21

    GFA-22, July 15, 2011

    ERS assesses the food security situation in 77 developing countries, including estimates for 2011 and projections for the next decade. The report is the latest in an annual series.

  • On the Doorstep of the Information Age: Recent Adoption of Precision Agriculture

    EIB-80, August 24, 2011

    The adoption of precision agriculture, which encompasses a suite of farm-level information technologies, can improve the efficiency of input use and reduce environmental harm from the overapplication of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. Still, the adoption of precision agricultural technologies and practices has been less rapid than envisioned a decade ago. Using Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data collected over the past 10 years, this report examines trends in the adoption of four key information technologies-yield monitors, variable-rate application technologies, guidance systems, and GPS maps-in the production of major field crops. While yield monitoring is now used on over 40 percent of U.S. grain crop acres, very few producers have adopted GPS maps or variable-rate input application technologies.

  • Identifying Overlap in the Farm Safety Net

    EIB-87, November 22, 2011

    ERS offers a conceptual framework for identifying overlap in farm safety net programs, including how to define and measure overlap. The study also suggests a direction for further analysis.

  • Wheat Outlook: December 2011

    WHS-11LT, December 13, 2011

    U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced prospects for exports this month. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels with reductions projected for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat.

  • Long-Term Growth Prospects for Wheat Production in Afghanistan

    WHS-11L01, January 04, 2012

    Given expected increases in demand, imports are likely to grow in coming years even if Afghanistan's rapid post-1990 production growth is sustained, suggesting growing dependence on supplies from Pakistan and other countries.

  • Wheat Outlook: January 2012

    WHS-12A, January 17, 2012

    U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as reductions in expected domestic use mostly offset higher projected exports. Food use is projected 5 million bushels lower based on flour production data recently reported by the North American Millers' Association for July-September 2011.

  • Wheat Outlook: February 2012

    WHS-12B, February 13, 2012

    U. S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected lower this month. Exports are raised 25 million bushels supported by the stronger-than-expected pace of sales and shipments, particularly for competitively priced feed-quality wheat.

  • Wheat Outlook: March 2012

    WHS-12C, March 13, 2012

    U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 20 million bushels lower this month as lower food use is more than offset by higher exports.

  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: March 2012

    LDPM-213, March 15, 2012

    Beef cow slaughter may be declining, and heifer retention to replace cows may be in early stages. Cattle feeding margins are improving for the short term, but packers are likely still seeing red. Retail prices may also be encountering some consumer resistance.

  • Wheat Outlook: April 2012

    WHS-12D, April 12, 2012

    USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), in its March 31 Prospective Plantings, reported that all-wheat planted area for 2012 is forecast at 55.9 million acres, up 3 percent from the 2011 all-wheat planted area.

  • Wheat Outlook: May 2012

    WHS-12E, May 14, 2012

    The 2012/13 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies and use, but lower prices. All wheat production is projected at 2,245 million bushels, up 12 percent from last year's weather-reduced crop and the highest since 2008/09.

  • Wheat Outlook: June 2012

    WHS-12F, June 14, 2012

    Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 51 million bushels with reduced carryin and lower forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are lowered 40 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel increase in food use and a 30-million-bushel increase in exports for 2011/12. The increase in 2011/12 food use reflects higher-than-expected flour milling during the January-March quarter as reported by the North American Millers' Association. Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year.

  • Feed Outlook: June 2012

    FDS-12F, June 14, 2012

    The 2012/13 U.S. corn balance sheet is unchanged this month. Corn ethanol use for 2011/12 is projected up 50 million bushels this month to 5,050 million as recent ethanol production data have been stronger than expected. While slowing from its peak in December 2011, ethanol production and use has been partly sustained by ethanol exports, as declining gasoline use and limits to blending ethanol have curbed domestic use.