Publications

Sort by: Title | Date
  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: February 2015

    AES-85, February 19, 2015

    February 2015 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $11 billion in 2015; imports to reach new record high.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024

    OCE-151, February 11, 2015

    USDA's 10-year food/farm sector projections cover major agricultural commodities, trade, and aggregate indicators of the U.S. farm sector, like farm income. Population and income growth are drivers of long-term demand for farm commodities.

  • Projecting World Raw Sugar Prices

    SSSM-317-01, January 16, 2015

    World sugar prices have an important effect on the U.S. sugar sector. This report presents a modeling framework for use in projecting world sugar prices, with detailed treatment of the role of Brazil in the world sugar and ethanol sectors.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: December 2014

    AES-84, December 02, 2014

    December 2014 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $9 billion in 2015; imports to reach new record.

  • With Adequate Productivity Growth, Global Agriculture Is Resilient to Future Population and Economic Growth

    Amber Waves, December 01, 2014

    If agricultural productivity growth slows in future years, how will global agricultural output, consumption, land use, and prices adjust? To address this question, ERS researchers recently used the agency’s global agricultural and energy economic model—the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM)—to simulate agricultural markets in 2050 under a range of different scenarios.

  • Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership

    ERR-176, October 28, 2014

    The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership is expected to increase the value of intraregional agricultural trade by about 6 percent in 2025, and increase U.S. agricultural exports to the region by 5 percent, compared with the baseline.

  • Vietnam's Agri-Food Sector and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

    EIB-130, October 28, 2014

    Vietnam's agricultural trade gains from TPP may be limited. The United States and Japan are expected to be the primary markets for agricultural export growth. Vietnam's consumer-oriented sectors provide the largest areas for import growth.

  • Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply

    ERR-174, September 18, 2014

    ERS examines hypothetical economic and agricultural sector responses to changes in key drivers of supply and demand in the future-agricultural productivity, population, and per capita income.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2014

    AES-83, August 28, 2014

    August 2014 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2014 and 2015 are discussed in this report. Record-high imports and exports expected in 2014. Exports to fall 7 percent in 2015; imports to reach new record.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2014-24

    GFA-25, June 30, 2014

    The food-insecure population of 76 low- and middle-income countries is projected to fall 9 percent to 490 million in 2014. The food-insecure share of the population is projected to rise from 13.9 percent in 2014 to 14.6 percent in 2024.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2014

    AES-82, May 29, 2014

    The May 2014 quarterly USDA forecasts for agricultural trade in the United States in FY 2014 are presented and discussed in this report.

  • Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement

    ERR-165, April 29, 2014

    An ERS econometric model shows that supply-and-demand factors specific to the wheat market largely accounted for observed price variation in 2008. In contrast, speculation by index traders had comparatively little influence on prices.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

    AES-81, February 20, 2014

    The February 2014 quarterly USDA forecasts for agricultural trade in the United States in FY 2014 are presented and discussed in this report.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023

    OCE-141, February 13, 2014

    USDA's longrun projections for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

    AES-80, December 02, 2013

    U.S. agricultural exports to fall 3 percent in fiscal 2014. Imports to rise 5 percent to record high.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2013

    AES-79, August 29, 2013

    U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2014 are forecast down from the previous year's record-high. Exports are expected to fall $5 billion to $135 billion. Imports in fiscal 2014 are expected reach a record $113 billion.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2013

    AES-78, May 30, 2013

    Record U.S. agricultural exports are forecast for fiscal 2013, up $3.7 billion from the year before to $139.5 billion. Imports are also projected to be at a record high, up $7.6 billion from fiscal 2012 to $111 billion.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

    AES-77, February 21, 2013

    Fiscal 2013 U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at a record $142 billion, $6.2 billion above 2012 exports. U.S. imports are forecast at a record $112.5 billion, $9.1 billion higher than in fiscal 2012.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022

    OCE-131, February 11, 2013

    USDA's longrun projections for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices.

  • Cotton and Hydropower in Central Asia: How Resource Competition Affects Trade

    EIB-106, January 15, 2013

    Heightened use of hydropower increases competition between local energy and agriculture sectors for scarce supplies of water. Although this may raise cotton prices locally, it has minimal effect on global prices.