Publications

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  • Feed Outlook: August 2012

    FDS-12H, August 14, 2012

    Market analysis of domestic and international feed grain markets.

  • Rice Outlook: August 2012

    RCS-12H, August 13, 2012

    The outlook for both the U.S. and global rice markets are analyzed based on the latest projections contained in the World Agricultural Supply and Uses Estimates report.

  • Reciprocal Trade Agreements: Impacts on U.S. and Foreign Suppliers in Commodity and Manufactured Food Markets

    ERR-138, August 09, 2012

    Focusing on two agricultural subsectors-commodity foods and manufactured foods-ERS quantifies the extent to which RTAs have expanded trade between member countries and altered trade between member and nonmember countries.

  • Dynamic PEATSim Model Documenting Its Use in Analyzing Global Commodity Markets

    TB-1933, July 18, 2012

    This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA's Economic Research Service. PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The model, consistent with economic theory, provides a flexible country and commodity aggregation and accounts for cross-commodity linkages and interactions. The report includes a presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the revamped model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents an application of the model to illustrate its dynamic structure and to demonstrate the differential behavior.

  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: July 2012

    LDPM-217, July 17, 2012

    Beef/Cattle: Following on the heels of last year's drought, this year's lack of adequate rainfall over more than half of the United States has resulted in rapidly deteriorating crop and pasture conditions that have driven corn prices higher and cattle prices lower.

  • Feed Outlook: July 2012

    FDS-12G, July 13, 2012

    U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower this month with lower production for corn on lower yields. Extremely hot weather and drought result in a 20- bushel-per-acre decline in the projected corn yield to 146 bushels per acre reducing projected production to 13.0 billion bushels, compared with 14.8 billion bushels last month.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: July 2012

    OCS-12G, July 12, 2012

    ERS--working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies--conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.

  • Rice Outlook: July 2012

    RCS-12G, July 12, 2012

    There were several major revisions to the 2012/13 U.S. rice balance sheet this month. On the supply side, the 2012/13 carryin was increased 5.0 million cwt to 34.5 million cwt. A higher area estimate raised the 2012/13 production forecast 8.0 million cwt to 191.0 million cwt. In contrast, 2012/13 imports were lowered 0.5 million cwt to 21.5 million cwt. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 12.5-million cwt increase in the 2012/13 total supply forecast to 247.0 million cwt.

  • Indonesia's Modern Food Retail Sector: Interaction With Changing Food Consumption and Trade Patterns

    EIB-97, June 20, 2012

    ERS examines food consumption patterns in Indonesia and measures the growth of modern food retail chains, packaged food purchases, and food imports in the world's fourth-most-populous country.

  • Immigration Policy and Its Possible Effects on U.S. Agriculture

    Amber Waves, June 05, 2012

    Policymakers are considering changes to U.S. immigration law that would affect the market for hired farm labor--including mandatory use of an Internet-based employment eligibility verification system and an expanded guestworker program for nonimmigrant, foreign-born agricultural workers.

  • Potential Developing Country Agricultural Safeguards in Cereal Grains Markets

    Amber Waves, June 05, 2012

    If approved, the special safeguard mechanism (SSM) is expected to increase domestic commodity prices in the developing countries where the policy is implemented. The SSM is also expected to increase the volatility of world commodity prices if the measure is widely used by developing countries.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2012

    AES-74, May 31, 2012

    This outlook report offers, on a quarterly basis, the U.S. agricultural import and export outlook, as well as the year-to-date value and volume of U.S. agricultural exports and imports, by commodity and region.

  • Estimating the Range of Food-Insecure Households in India

    ERR-133, May 30, 2012

    Focusing on India, which has the world's largest food-insecure population, ERS analyzes a large household data set used by India's government to track household food security.

  • The 2008-09 Recession and Recovery Implications for the Growth and Financial Health of U.S. Agriculture

    WRS-1201, May 22, 2012

    U.S. agriculture was better positioned than most U.S. industries entering the recession, was less affected by the recession than most other U.S. industries, and is well positioned to continue to do well in the years ahead.

  • The Potential Impact of Changes in Immigration Policy on U.S. Agriculture and the Market for Hired Farm Labor: A Simulation Analysis

    ERR-135, May 22, 2012

    ERS examines potential impacts on agriculture of large shifts in the supply of foreign-born labor that might result in the event of substantial changes in U.S. immigration laws or policies.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2011

    SSSM-270, May 08, 2012

    The two primary determinants of U.S. sugar supply and use over the long-term projection period are the sugar and energy provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act) and reliance on sugar imports from Mexico to maintain a balance in the U.S. sugar market.

  • U.S. Sugar April 2012

    SSSM-284, April 16, 2012

    On March 30, 2012, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published Prospective Plantings, with forecasts included for planted-area intentions for the 2012/13 U.S. sugarbeet crop. Planted area is forecast at 1.241 million acres. While this amount is less than a percentage point above last year's realized planted area of 1.233 million acres, it is 4.6 percent above last year's intended area projected in March 2011. With the assumption of normal growing conditions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects an additional 130,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) of beet sugar production to occur before the end of the fiscal year (FY) 2012 for a total of 4.655 million STRV. There were no changes from last month for FY 2012 cane sugar production.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: March 2012

    SSSM-283, March 14, 2012

    Based on revised analysis of data from the Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar (CNDSCA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) made corrections to its Mexico 2010/11 sugar supply and sweetener use from last month. Sugar for human consumption is estimated at 3.950 million metric tons (mt) and ending stocks are estimated at 759,906 mt. Also, high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption is estimated at 1.635 million mt, dry weight.

  • China’s Hog Cycle Boosts U.S. Pork Exports

    Amber Waves, March 01, 2012

    High pork prices in the Chinese market have created opportunities for the U.S. pork industry. However, U.S. pork sales to China have not risen at a steady rate. They tend to rise and fall in rhythm with cyclical changes in China's hog sector.

  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: February 2012

    SSSM-282, February 14, 2012

    The Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar (CNDSCA) in Mexico recently published revised supply and use data for 2010/11 and the Secretariat of the Economy (Economia) released full marketing year data for sugar exports and imports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its Mexico supply and balance estimates as a consequence.