Publications

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  • Oil Crops Outlook: August 2012

    OCS-12H, August 13, 2012

    ERS -- working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies -- conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade

  • Oil Crops Outlook: July 2012

    OCS-12G, July 12, 2012

    ERS--working closely with the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and other USDA agencies--conducts market analysis and provides short- and long-term projections of U.S. and world agricultural production, consumption, and trade.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: June 2012

    OCS-12F, June 13, 2012

    Export shipments of U.S. soybeans for 2011/12 are forecast up 20 million bushels this month to 1.335 billion. And the 2011/12 soybean crush is forecast 15 million bushels higher this month to 1.66 billion based on higher demand for soybean meal. Higher soybean demand would further reduce U.S. season-ending stocks for 2011/12 to 175 million bushels, compared to last month's forecast at 210 million. Despite reductions in 2012/13 use, the smaller carryover would reduce season-ending soybean stocks to 140 million bushels-a level that would cover only 16 days of use.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: May 2012

    OCS-12E, May 17, 2012

    Using a long-term yield trend of 43.9 bushels per acre and an estimated harvested area of 73 million acres, the U.S. soybean crop for 2012 is projected up 5 percent to 3.205 billion bushels. Fast early shipments are forecast to raise U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 to a record 1.505 billion bushels. Season-ending soybean stocks are projected at 145 million bushels-near an all-time low as a percentage of total use. Another record high could be set in 2012/13 for the U.S. soybean farm price at $12 to $14 per bushel.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: April 2012

    OCS-12D, April 11, 2012

    USDA's Prospective Plantings report in March indicated that U.S. farmers intend to reduce the acreage sown to soybeans this year by 1.4 percent to 73.9 million acres as expected returns for corn were more attractive. Also, growers intend this spring to increase U.S. sunflowerseed acreage by 17 percent to 1.8 million acres, canola by 45 percent to a U.S.-record 1.56 million acres, and peanuts by 25 percent to 1.4 million acres.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: March 2012

    OCS-12C, March 12, 2012

    Based on shrinking prospects for South American crops, USDA's forecast of the 2011/12-average soybean price received by U.S. farmers fell to $11.40-$12.60 per bushel from $11.10-$12.30 last month. Similarly, USDA raised its forecast of the season-average price for soybean meal to $310-$340 per short ton from $290-$320 last month.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: February 2012

    OCS-12B, February 10, 2012

    Despite a dimmer outlook for South American soybean production, U.S. exports for 2011/12 are expected to be unchanged at 1.275 billion bushels as an anticipated upswing in sales may only narrow a large gap with last year's pace of shipments. Domestic processing margins for soybeans have not appreciably improved, either, so the 2011/12 crush forecast did not change from 1.615 billion bushels. Without changes in forecast U.S. soybean demand, the expectation for season-ending stocks is unchanged at 275 million bushels.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: January 2012

    OCS-12A, January 13, 2012

    The final estimate of the 2011 U.S. soybean crop was 3.056 billion bushels based on a harvested acreage of 73.6 million acres and an average yield of 41.5 bushels per acre. USDA lowered its 2011/12 forecast of soybean exports by 25 million bushels this month to 1.275 billion while soybean crushing is forecast down 10 million bushels to 1.615 billion. Based on that lower use, season-ending soybean stocks on August 31 are expected at 275 million bushels.

  • Oil Crops Outlook: December 2011

    OCS-11L, December 12, 2011

    Based on higher competition and uniformly disappointing sales, USDA lowered its 2011/12 forecast of U.S. soybean exports by 25 million bushels this month to 1.3 billion.

  • Identifying Overlap in the Farm Safety Net

    EIB-87, November 22, 2011

    ERS offers a conceptual framework for identifying overlap in farm safety net programs, including how to define and measure overlap. The study also suggests a direction for further analysis.

  • The Renewable Identification Number System and U.S. Biofuel Mandates

    BIO-03, November 08, 2011

    This report provides an overview of how the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) market works to ensure compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard provision of the Energy Independence and Security Act, as well as how RIN prices are determined and which factors influence their prices.

  • Estimating the Substitution of Distillers' Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex

    FDS-11I01, October 13, 2011

    Corn-based dry-mill ethanol production and its coproducts - notably distillers' dried grains with soluble (DDGS) - have surged in recent years. The report estimates the potential substitution of DDGS for corn and soybean meal in livestock feeding and the impact of substitution upon the U.S. feed complex.

  • On the Doorstep of the Information Age: Recent Adoption of Precision Agriculture

    EIB-80, August 24, 2011

    The adoption of precision agriculture, which encompasses a suite of farm-level information technologies, can improve the efficiency of input use and reduce environmental harm from the overapplication of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. Still, the adoption of precision agricultural technologies and practices has been less rapid than envisioned a decade ago. Using Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data collected over the past 10 years, this report examines trends in the adoption of four key information technologies-yield monitors, variable-rate application technologies, guidance systems, and GPS maps-in the production of major field crops. While yield monitoring is now used on over 40 percent of U.S. grain crop acres, very few producers have adopted GPS maps or variable-rate input application technologies.

  • The Ethanol Decade: An Expansion of U.S. Corn Production, 2000-09

    EIB-79, August 18, 2011

    ERS examines how the farm sector reacted to increased demand for corn needed to fuel a 9-billion-gallon rise in ethanol production in the past decade. In the United States, corn is the primary ethanol feedstock.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2011-21

    GFA-22, July 15, 2011

    ERS assesses the food security situation in 77 developing countries, including estimates for 2011 and projections for the next decade. The report is the latest in an annual series.

  • Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again?

    WRS-1103, June 28, 2011

    The report describes the factors that have contributed to the large and rapid increase in agricultural prices during the past year. The report focuses particularly on food commodity prices-which have risen 60 percent since June 2010.

  • Selected Trade Agreements and Implications for U.S. Agriculture

    ERR-115, April 15, 2011

    ERS examines possible impacts of recently implemented free trade agreements (FTAs) where the United States is not a partner, and potential effects of pending U.S. agreements with Korea, Colombia, and Panama.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020

    OCE-111, February 14, 2011

    This report provides longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector through 2020. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • Market Issues and Prospects for U.S. Distillers' Grains Supply, Use, and Price Relationships

    FDS-10K-01, December 09, 2010

    Growth in corn dry-mill ethanol production has surged in the past several years, simultaneously creating a coproduct-distillers' grains (DDGS). Many in the U.S. feed industry were concerned about the size of this new feed source and whether it could be used entirely by the feed industry, but they also worried about the price discovery process for the product. The authors of this report provide a transparent methodology to estimate U.S. supply and consumption of DDGS. Potential domestic and export use of U.S. DDGS exceeds current production and is likely to exceed future production as ethanol production continues to grow. The authors identify the DDGS price discovery process along with the price relationships of distillers' grains, corn, and soybean meal.

  • ACRE Program Payments and Risk Reduction: An Analysis Based on Simulations of Crop Revenue Variability

    ERR-101, September 17, 2010

    ERS analyzes the distribution, by crop and region, of potential farm payments and risk reduction in the revenue-based Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program. The report focuses on corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.