Publications

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  • Agricultural Policy Reform in the WTO--The Road Ahead

    AER-802, May 15, 2001

    Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. This report quantifies the costs of global agricultural distortions and the potential benefits of their full elimination. The report concludes that eliminating global agricultural policy distortions would result in an annual world welfare gain of $56 billion. The report also analyzes the effects on U.S. and world agriculture if only partial reform is achieved in liberalizing tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (limits on imported goods), domestic support, and export subsidies.

  • Agricultural Recovery in Russia and the Rise of Its South

    Amber Waves, April 25, 2017

    National productivity growth in Russian agriculture is largely an outcome of activities in the South, which is exploiting relative geographic, infrastructural, and institutional advantages to spearhead the country’s agricultural improvements.

  • Agriculture in Brazil and Argentina: Developments and Prospects for Major Field Crops

    WRS-013, December 28, 2001

    This report identifies key factors underlying the agricultural productivity growth and enhanced international competitiveness of Brazil and Argentina in the past decade. Economic and policy reforms, infrastructure development, and enhanced use of agricultural inputs that drove output growth during the 1990s are discussed. This report also compares Brazilian, Argentine, and U.S. soybean production costs and evaluates the combined impact of production, marketing, and transportation costs on the overall export competitiveness of each country's soybean producers. Finally, the outlook for continued growth in output and exports of key commodities is assessed.

  • Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership

    ERR-176, October 28, 2014

    The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership is expected to increase the value of intraregional agricultural trade by about 6 percent in 2025, and increase U.S. agricultural exports to the region by 5 percent, compared with the baseline.

  • Agriculture in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Tariffs, Tariff-Rate Quotas, and Non-Tariff Measures

    ERR-198, November 10, 2015

    Model results under three possible scenarios suggest the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States and the European Union could lead to higher ag exports for both, particularly for the United States.

  • Brazil's Cotton Industry: Economic Reform and Development

    CWS-11D01, June 17, 2011

    This report identifies the factors contributing to the cycles in Brazil's cotton production and exports that have made the country both an important market for U.S. cotton exports and now a competitor with U.S. cotton producers since 1990.

  • China Currency Appreciation Could Boost U.S. Agricultural Exports

    WRS-0703, August 22, 2007

    U.S. exports of soybeans and cotton to China have boomed in recent years, but the undervalued exchange rate for the Chinese yuan keeps prices of most other U.S. food and agricultural products more expensive than Chinese products. On average, Chinese retail food prices are about a fourth of U.S. prices. Land-extensive commodities like soybeans, cotton, corn, and wheat have relatively high prices in China, but soybeans and cotton are the only major crops that China imports in significant quantities. With an undervalued exchange rate China's prices are not high enough to attract imports of grains or most livestock products. Appreciation of the Chinese currency would increase the purchasing power of Chinese consumers on world markets and increase China's demand for imported commodities. However, Chinese policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious approach to currency appreciation, motivated in part by farm income and food security concerns.

  • Cotton Policy in China

    CWS-15C-01, March 31, 2015

    Managing China's unprecedented volume of cotton stockpiles will require difficult choices by Chinese authorities. China's large role in world cotton markets means its recent policy changes could reduce world cotton prices significantly.

  • Cotton and Hydropower in Central Asia: How Resource Competition Affects Trade

    EIB-106, January 15, 2013

    Heightened use of hydropower increases competition between local energy and agriculture sectors for scarce supplies of water. Although this may raise cotton prices locally, it has minimal effect on global prices.

  • Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement

    ERR-165, April 29, 2014

    An ERS econometric model shows that supply-and-demand factors specific to the wheat market largely accounted for observed price variation in 2008. In contrast, speculation by index traders had comparatively little influence on prices.

  • Economic and Financial Conditions Bode Well for U.S. Agriculture

    Amber Waves, December 03, 2012

    U.S. agriculture entered the most recent recession better positioned than most U.S. industries, was less affected by the recession than most other U.S. industries, and is likely to continue to do well in the years ahead.

  • Effects of Increased Biofuels on the U.S. Economy in 2022

    ERR-102, October 21, 2010

    ERS examines economic effects of increased biofuels in transportation fuels, called for in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Effects are measured by gross domestic product, household income, price of energy fuels, and agricultural output and trade.

  • European Financial Imbalances: Implications of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Problem for U.S. Agricultural Exports

    WRS-1102, May 12, 2011

    This report discusses Eurozone sovereign debt problems that began in 2010 and their potential consequences for the European Union (EU) and U.S. agriculture.

  • Factors Behind the Rise in Global Rice Prices in 2008

    RCS-09D01, May 07, 2009

    Global rice prices rose to record highs in the spring of 2008, with trading prices tripling from November 2007 to late April 2008. The price increase was not due to crop failure or a particularly tight global rice supply situation. Instead, trade restrictions by major suppliers, panic buying by several large importers, a weak dollar, and record oil prices were the immediate cause of the rise in rice prices. Because rice is critical to the diet of about half the world's population, the rapid increase in global rice prices in late 2007 and early 2008 had a detrimental impact on those rice consumers' well-being. Although rice prices have dropped more than 40 percent from their April 2008 highs, they remain well above pre-2007 levels.

  • Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply

    ERR-174, September 18, 2014

    ERS examines hypothetical economic and agricultural sector responses to changes in key drivers of supply and demand in the future-agricultural productivity, population, and per capita income.

  • Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade

    ERR-46, September 04, 2007

    Rising incomes in emerging markets are propelling U.S. export growth, while consumer demand for diversified products is a primary driver of import growth.

  • Global Macroeconomic Developments Drive Downturn in U.S. Agricultural Exports

    AES-94, July 12, 2016

    The macroeconomic outlook underlying the 2016 USDA agricultural projections indicates a slowdown in global income growth and a stronger dollar, implying smaller projected gains in agricultural trade and declines in U.S. market share.

  • Growth and Equity Effects of Agricultural Marketing Efficiency Gains in India

    ERR-89, December 17, 2009

    ERS examines the performance of India's agricultural marketing system and analyzes economywide implications of improved marketing efficiency that might stem from future reforms.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2012-22

    GFA-23, July 09, 2012

    ERS assesses food security in 76 developing countries, including estimates for 2012 and projections for the next decade - latest report in an annual series. Key determinants of food security: food production and import capacity.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2014-24

    GFA-25, June 30, 2014

    The food-insecure population of 76 low- and middle-income countries is projected to fall 9 percent to 490 million in 2014. The food-insecure share of the population is projected to rise from 13.9 percent in 2014 to 14.6 percent in 2024.