Publications

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  • APEC Agriculture and Trade: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Region Buying More U.S. Consumer-Ready Food Products

    AER-734, September 11, 1996

    In fiscal 1995, more than 60 percent of U.S. farm exports, worth a record $33 billion, went to Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum members. Bulk exports showed the most dramatic growth, benefiting greatly from China's conversion from a net grain exporter into a major net importer. Chinese imports are projected to increase further over the long term. Continued trade liberalization throughout APEC, rapid economic growth in its developing economies, and limited arable land in China and East Asia will ensure continued growth in U.S. farm exports to APEC markets-especially meat for East Asia and grains for China and Southeast Asia.

  • The Impact of China and Taiwan Joining the World Trade Organization on U.S. and World Agricultural Trade: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

    TB-1858, May 01, 1997

    This report quantifies the potential impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector computable general equilibrium model for world trade and production. Integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could increase total world exports by as much as $78 billion (1992 constant prices), total world imports by $94 billion, and world real consumption by $45 billion annually, as well as induce more competition on labor-intensive products and reduce their prices.

  • China International Agriculture and Trade Situation and Outlook 1997

    WRS-973, June 02, 1997

    International Agriculture and Trade Reports are published five times yearly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

  • Europe International Agriculture and Trade Situation and Outlook 1997

    WRS-97-5, December 01, 1997

    The EU's system of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs)1 that are notified under the Uruguay Round will have only a limited impact on the level of EU imports. EU agricultural imports under its Uruguay Round TRQs are estimated to increase almost $1 billion by 2000/01, the final year of URAA implementation, representing about 2 percent of current agricultural imports. From this standpoint, new EU market access opportunities under the Uruguay Round are limited. In terms of their effects on EU import source, countries of Central and Eastern Europe that concluded Europe Agreements with the EU (CEE-10)2 stand to gain a large share of the new imports created under the TRQs. The CEE- 10 benefit from lower tariffs for most products, while the EU counts imports under the Europe Agreements against the utilization of its Uruguay Round TRQs. The CEE-10 are expected to take greatest advantage of new EU market access for pork and butter, whereas the benefits of new EU market access will likely be spread among a greater number of exporting countries for poultry, cheese, egg products, and skimmed milk powder. U.S. exporters are most likely to be competitive in the EU's TRQs for eggs, egg products, some pork loins, and some cheeses.

  • Agriculture and European Union Enlargement

    TB-1865, February 01, 1998

    This report documents the modeling framework (European Simulation Model, ESIM) used to analyze the 1992 CAP reform and discusses possible effects of EU enlargement. Potential accession of a number of eastern and central European countries into the European Union (EU) seems destined to lead to further reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The financial costs of absorbing these countries may be extreme.

  • International Agriculture and Trade Report: China, 1998

    WRS-98-3, July 01, 1998

    The Asian financial crisis is pressuring China's economic growth this year. China's labor-intensive export goods are meeting stiff competition from other Asian economies. After averaging 11 percent annually during the past 5 years, China's GDP is expected to drop below the 8-percent target set by the government for 1998. So far, China has resisted pressure to devalue its currency and is investing in its infrastructure sector to stimulate domestic demand.

  • The European Union's Common Agricultural Policy: Pressures for Change

    WRS-992, October 01, 1999

    Provision for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was integral to the agreements that established the European Union (EU) and the CAP has been among the most important EU policies administered and funded in common. Revisions or " reforms " of the CAP have been numerous,in response to dramatic changes in agricultural realities and circumstances since the 1960s. This report contends that the continuing need for revision results significantly from the interventionist nature of the CAP, which manages agricultural prices, precluding automatic market-directed adjustments of production and consumption to changing circumstances. Strong vested interests will continue to limit reforms, allowing revisions only when the immediate political costs of not reforming equal or exceed the costs of reform.

  • International Agriculture and Trade Report: China, 2000

    WRS99-4, March 16, 2000

    China's economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced domestic consumer demand. Growth in China's gross domestic product dropped to 7.1 percent in 1999, the slowest since 1983. Exports, which had risen 21 percent in 1997 and an astonishing 15.5 percent a year on average during 1980-97, came to a near standstill in 1998 and rose only modestly in 1999. East and Southeast Asian countries, which formerly purchased about 60 percent of China's exports, were hurt severely by the Asian financial crisis. Besides cutting back on their own imports from China, many of these countries devalued their currencies, making their exports more competitive with similar products from China.

  • Food Security Assessment GFA12

    GFA-12, February 26, 2001

    USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) projects that average per capita food consumption for 67 low-income countries will increase in the next decade. ERS also projects that the number of people failing to meet their nutritional requirements will decline from 774 million in 2000 to 694 million in 2010, providing an improved outlook for global food security. But the gains are not uniform across countries and in many food insecurity will probably intensify. Sub-Saharan Africa, as the most vulnerable region, accounts for only 24 percent of the population of these 67 countries, but it is projected to account for 63 percent of these hungry people in 2010. HIV/AIDS is expected to reduce the region's agricultural productivity, and constraints in financial resources will limit commercial imports, thus leading to declining per capita consumption.

  • Issues in Food Security

    AIB-765, April 23, 2001

    Included here are a number of short multidisciplinary issue papers that address how food security in the United States and throughout the world is affected by issues like trade liberalization, income distribution, and natural resources. ERS research shows that more than 800 million people are hungry in 67 lower income countries and even though the number of people affected is expected to decline, the situation may become more severe in the poorer countries. The reasons for food insecurity are many. Noticeably absent from that list, however, is large-scale food scarcity. The growth rate in food production worldwide has surpassed the population growth rate, leading to increased food availability per person. Since 1996, some regions/countries have significantly improved their economic performance and food security situation: several lower income countries in Asia and Latin America are clearly in this group. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, has not seen much progress, nor are its prospects for improvement sanguine. Global trade liberalization is expected to expand market access for the lower income countries and enhance their ability to compete. The multiplicity of forces acting on different nations' prospects for food security means that a broad range of issues must be considered at the global level if countries-and all their households-are to become and remain food secure.

  • Agricultural Policy Reform in the WTO--The Road Ahead

    AER-802, May 15, 2001

    Agricultural trade barriers and producer subsidies inflict real costs, both on the countries that use these policies and on their trade partners. This report quantifies the costs of global agricultural distortions and the potential benefits of their full elimination. The report concludes that eliminating global agricultural policy distortions would result in an annual world welfare gain of $56 billion. The report also analyzes the effects on U.S. and world agriculture if only partial reform is achieved in liberalizing tariffs, tariff-rate quotas (limits on imported goods), domestic support, and export subsidies.

  • Changing Structure of Global Food Consumption and Trade

    WRS-01-1, May 30, 2001

    Higher income, urbanization, other demographic shifts, improved transportation, and consumer perceptions regarding quality and safety are changing global food consumption patterns. Shifts in food consumption have led to increased trade and changes in the composition of world agricultural trade. Given different diets, food expenditure and food budget responses to income and price changes vary between developing and developed countries. In developing countries, higher income results in increased demand for meat products, often leading to increased import of live-stock feed. Diet diversification and increasing demand for better quality and labor-saving products have increased imports of high-value and processed food products in developed countries. Consumer groups in developed countries have also brought attention to organic production of food and the topic of animal welfare. One way in which the public and private sectors have responded to consumer demand for these quality attributes has been by developing and implementing mandatory and voluntary quality control, management, and assurance schemes.

  • China: Agriculture in Transition

    WRS-012, November 08, 2001

    The Chinese grain sector faces pressure from both external competition and internal shifts in consumer preferences that could reshape the industry. The report focuses on the long-term expectations for China's agriculture in the face of continued growth and openness to trade.

  • Agriculture in Brazil and Argentina: Developments and Prospects for Major Field Crops

    WRS-013, December 28, 2001

    This report identifies key factors underlying the agricultural productivity growth and enhanced international competitiveness of Brazil and Argentina in the past decade. Economic and policy reforms, infrastructure development, and enhanced use of agricultural inputs that drove output growth during the 1990s are discussed. This report also compares Brazilian, Argentine, and U.S. soybean production costs and evaluates the combined impact of production, marketing, and transportation costs on the overall export competitiveness of each country's soybean producers. Finally, the outlook for continued growth in output and exports of key commodities is assessed.

  • Livestock Sectors in the Economies of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union: Transition from Plan to Market and the Road Ahead

    AER-798, January 01, 2002

    The report examines the restructuring of the livestock sectors in five countries: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. All five countries experienced a decline in both animal inventories and meat output during the early years of transition away from a centrally planned economy. The study identifies potential trade and investment opportunities, but emphasizes that this potential depends on the successful implementation of institutional and policy reforms.

  • Food Security Assessment GFA13

    GFA-13, April 01, 2002

    The Food Security Assessment report provides food gap and hunger projections for 67 potentially food insecure countries in North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and NIS.

  • China's Food and Agriculture: Issues for the 21st Century

    AIB-775, April 01, 2002

    Assessment of issues that will affect China's future trends in consumption, production, import, and export of food and agricultural commodities. A series of 13 articles cover China's food consumption, marketing, international trade, agricultural policy, transportation infrastructure, regional diversity, livestock sector, biotechnology, water and irrigation policy, land tenure system, rural development, employment, and market information.

  • Structural Change and Agricultural Protection: Costs of Korean Agricultural Policy, 1975 and 1990

    AER-809, April 18, 2002

    The economic development of South Korea is often considered a model for developing countries. We use 1975 and 1990 data in a general equilibrium framework with a highly disaggregated sector specification to evaluate the opportunity cost of its agricultural protection. We show that although agriculture's share of the gross domestic product (GDP) declined between 1975 and 1990, the cost of agricultural protection, as measured by the loss in GDP, did not fall. The larger gap between domestic and world prices for the protected sectors exacerbated the distortions in resource allocation. Simulated removal of 1990 agricultural border protection reduced the share of agricultural GDP to the level actually observed in 1996, demonstrating how protection can impede economic structural development. The public policy implication is for developing countries to adopt policies that help the agricultural sector become competitive. Otherwise, as in Korea, the resource costs of delaying adjustment grow over time.

  • U.S.-Mexico Broiler Trade: A Bird's Eye View

    LDPM-102-01, December 06, 2002

    This study examines sanitary requirements and regulations currently governing the U.S.-Mexico broiler trade. A sensitivity analysis, using a cost-minimization mathematical programming model, detects minimal economic impact on the U.S. broiler market if Mexico is allowed to ship fresh, chilled, and frozen poultry to the United States.

  • China's Corn Exports: Business as Usual, Despite WTO Accession

    FDS-1202-01, December 12, 2002

    A decline in China's corn exports was expected to be a main effect of that country's accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001. Instead, China's corn exports continued at a near-record pace during 2002. China has canceled direct export subsidies, but other policies have replaced them, although details of these new measures are not clear. This year's rising international prices have given an added boost to China's corn export program and delayed an expected increase in China's corn imports. In the long run, government policies that encourage exports may prove too costly to continue, and restructuring of China's corn and livestock sectors may reduce the flow of exports.