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  • Afghanistan's Wheat Flour Market: Policies and Prospects

    WHS-13I-01, October 23, 2013

    Afghanistan's milling industry has been slow to rebuild, due to highly variable domestic wheat supplies and competition from imported flour, largely from Pakistan where wheat producers and flour millers receive Government support.

  • Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2005, Reflecting the 1996 Farm Act

    WAOB-971, April 23, 1997

    This report provides long-run baseline projections for the agricultural sector through 2005 that incorporate provisions of the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (1996 Farm Act). The baseline assumes that the new farm legislation remains in effect through 2005. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. Generally favorable global economic growth is projected in the baseline which, combined with liberalized trade associated with both the GATT agreement and unilateral policy reforms, supports strong growth in global trade and U.S. agricultural exports. Greater market orientation in the domestic agricultural sector under the 1996 Farm Act puts U.S. farmers in a favorable position for competing in the global marketplace. A tightening of the balance between productive capacity and demands results in rising nominal market prices, increasing farm income, and stability in the financial condition of the agricultural sector. However, management of risk will be important for farmers. With the reduced role of the Government in the sector under the 1996 Farm Act, farmers in general face greater risk of income volatility due to price variation, reflecting market price variability more directly. Consumer food prices are projected to continue a long term trend of rising less than the general inflation rate. The baseline projections presented are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector through the middle of the next decade, assuming no shocks and based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments. As such, the baseline provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared in October through December 1996, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmental analysis.

  • Assessing the Growth of U.S. Broiler and Poultry Meat Exports

    LDPM-23101, November 08, 2013

    The United States is the world's second largest broiler meat exporter, and exports are a valuable source of income for the industry. ERS examines factors affecting the growth in broiler meat exports, focusing on several major markets.

  • Brazil's Agricultural Land Use and Trade: Effects of Changes in Oil Prices and Ethanol Demand

    ERR-210, June 29, 2016

    ERS examines the extent to which changes in oil prices could affect Brazil's ethanol sector and the agricultural land-use decisions on production of sugarcane-Brazil's main ethanol feedstock-versus other crop and livestock activities.

  • Brazil's Corn Industry and the Effect on the Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Corn Exports

    AES-93, June 15, 2016

    Brazil's corn exports are now concentrated in months traditionally dominated by Northern Hemisphere exporters, particularly the United States. Greater competition from Brazil could alter the seasonal pattern of U.S. corn exports and prices.

  • Changing Crop Area in the Former Soviet Union Region

    FDS-17B-01, February 21, 2017

    Total crop area fell substantially in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan during the 1990's. Though area has rebounded somewhat in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, it is still far below the levels of the late Soviet period in Russia and Kazakhstan.

  • China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed

    Amber Waves, April 07, 2014

    USDA anticipates that China’s soybean and corn imports will continue to rise, with soybean imports meeting nearly all soybean meal demand and imports accounting for about 10 percent of corn supplies by 2023. Meat imports are also projected to rise, but remain a small share of consumption.

  • China’s Agricultural Policies Reshape Global Sorghum Trade

    Amber Waves, June 01, 2015

    China's agricultural and trade policies in the corn sector are shifting global patterns of sorghum imports.

  • Cotton Policy in China

    CWS-15C-01, March 31, 2015

    Managing China's unprecedented volume of cotton stockpiles will require difficult choices by Chinese authorities. China's large role in world cotton markets means its recent policy changes could reduce world cotton prices significantly.

  • Developing Countries Dominate World Demand for Agricultural Products

    Amber Waves, August 05, 2013

    According to USDA’s baseline projections, developing country demand for agricultural products is expected to increase faster than their production in 2013-22. Thus, these countries will account for 92 percent of the total increase in world meat imports, 92 percent of the increase in world grains and oilseeds imports, and nearly all of the increase in world cotton imports.

  • Development of China's Feed Industry and Demand for Imported Commodities

    FDS-15K-01, November 19, 2015

    China's commercial feed industry plays a critical role in supporting growth of the country's livestock sector. The feed industry's need for raw materials has been key to lowering China's barriers to agricultural imports.

  • Dynamic PEATSim Model Documenting Its Use in Analyzing Global Commodity Markets

    TB-1933, July 18, 2012

    This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA's Economic Research Service. PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The model, consistent with economic theory, provides a flexible country and commodity aggregation and accounts for cross-commodity linkages and interactions. The report includes a presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the revamped model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents an application of the model to illustrate its dynamic structure and to demonstrate the differential behavior.

  • Economic and Financial Conditions Bode Well for U.S. Agriculture

    Amber Waves, December 03, 2012

    U.S. agriculture entered the most recent recession better positioned than most U.S. industries, was less affected by the recession than most other U.S. industries, and is likely to continue to do well in the years ahead.

  • Effects of Recent Energy Price Reductions on U.S. Agriculture

    BIO-04, June 02, 2015

    Sharply lower energy prices begun in late 2014 will benefit the agriculture sector mainly through lower transport and production costs. Energy price decreases are projected to lower production costs by about $5 billion in 2015 and in 2016.

  • Feed Outlook: April 2013

    FDS-13D, April 12, 2013

    Lower than expected March 1 corn stocks roil markets, lower price, and raise ending stocks.

  • Feed Outlook: August 2012

    FDS-12H, August 14, 2012

    Market analysis of domestic and international feed grain markets.

  • Feed Outlook: February 2018

    FDS-18b, February 12, 2018

    The February 2018 Feed Outlook report contains projections for 2017/18 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: January 2018

    FDS-18a, January 17, 2018

    The January 2018 Feed Outlook report contains estimates for 2016/17 and projections for 2017/18 U.S. and global feed markets based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

  • Feed Outlook: July 2012

    FDS-12G, July 13, 2012

    U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected sharply lower this month with lower production for corn on lower yields. Extremely hot weather and drought result in a 20- bushel-per-acre decline in the projected corn yield to 146 bushels per acre reducing projected production to 13.0 billion bushels, compared with 14.8 billion bushels last month.

  • Feed Outlook: July 2013

    FDS-13G, July 15, 2013

    This month's projected 2013/14 feed grain supplies are slightly lower, reflecting a reduction in harvested acres for corn.