Publications

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  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020

    OCE-111, February 14, 2011

    This report provides longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector through 2020. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016

    OCE-2007-1, February 14, 2007

    This report provides longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector through 2016. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices.

  • U.S. Upland Cotton Exports and Mill Use Projected To Improve

    Amber Waves, August 07, 2017

    USDA's 10-year projections for upland cotton suggest a recovery in exports, production, and mill use through 2026 following significant declines in the past 10 years.

  • U.S. Net Textile and Apparel Imports Decline in 2011

    CWS-12A, March 12, 2012

    U.S. net textile and apparel fiber imports decreased in calendar year 2011 as a result of the sluggish U.S. economy. Total fiber product imports reached 17.2 billion raw-fiber-equivalent pounds in 2011, 7 percent below 2010 and the second lowest since 2004. Meanwhile, fiber product exports rose for the second consecutive year to 3.7 billion pounds after a recent low of 3.1 billion in 2009. As a result, 2011 net fiber product imports only reached 13.5 billion pounds, 9 percent below 2010 and one of the lowest since the mid-2000s (fig. 1).

  • U.S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

    ERR-80, September 09, 2009

    This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China's trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), China's net imports as a share of world consumption, the foreign supply of cotton, and selected farm policy parameters.

  • U.S. Agricultural Trading Relationship With China Grows

    Amber Waves, May 04, 2015

    China's "new normal" presents opportunities and challenges for U.S. agricultural exports to China.

  • Trends In U.S. Cotton Basis Since 2001

    CWS-09D01, June 25, 2009

    Price volatility in 2008 generated interest in underlying cotton cash and futures markets and highlighted the importance of market participants' expectations about basis changes over time in production, marketing, and hedging decisions. This analysis examines trends in average U.S. cotton basis and changes in the convergence of cash and futures prices as cotton futures contract expiration dates near between 2001 and 2009 to provide perspective for the average basis movements experienced in 2008. Though this analysis does not identify the factors leading to differences in average convergence paths since 2001, it finds that, while average cotton cash and futures prices converged in all years, the pattern in 2008 was significantly different from the other sample years.

  • The Forces Shaping World Cotton Consumption After the Multifiber Arrangement

    CWS-05C-01, April 15, 2005

    The phaseout of the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) and other forces are reshaping world textile and cotton markets. The elimination of the MFA is helping reduce clothing prices in the United States and the EU and effecting a shift in industrial demand for cotton to China, India, and Pakistan. At the same time, world cotton consumption has accelerated along with economic growth since 1999, especially in developing Asia, where an emerging consumer society is driving increases in household consumption of clothing and other cotton products. In the long run, income growth and technical change have more of an effect on world cotton consumption than the elimination of the MFA.

  • The Cotton Industry In The United States

    AER-739, July 01, 1996

    The United States produces nearly 20 percent of the world's cotton and ranks second to China as the largest producing country. While over 80 countries produce cotton, the United States, China, India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan (former Soviet republic) produce about 74 percent of the total world cotton supply.

  • The 2002 Farm Bill: Provisions and Economic Implications

    AP-022, January 23, 2008

    The Farm Security Act of 2002, which governs Federal farm programs for 2002-07, was signed into law on May 13, 2002. This publication presents an overview of the Act and a side-by-side comparison of 1996-2001 farm legislation and the 2002 Act. For selected programs, information is provided to additional analyses of key changes, program overview, and economic implications.

  • Support for the Organic Sector Expands in the 2014 Farm Act

    Amber Waves, July 07, 2014

    Organic program provisions in the 2014 Farm Act cover a broad set of objectives—assisting with organic certification costs, expanding organic research and data collection, improving technical assistance and crop insurance, strengthening enforcement of organic regulations, and expanding market opportunities for producers.

  • Selected Trade Agreements and Implications for U.S. Agriculture

    ERR-115, April 15, 2011

    ERS examines possible impacts of recently implemented free trade agreements (FTAs) where the United States is not a partner, and potential effects of pending U.S. agreements with Korea, Colombia, and Panama.

  • Provisions of the Food Security Act of 1985

    AIB-498, April 01, 1986

    The Food Security Act of 1985 (P.L. 99-198) establishes a comprehensive framework within which the Secretary of Agriculture will administer agriculture and food programs from 1986 through 1990. This report describes the Act's provisions for dairy, wool and mohair, wheat, feed grains, cotton, rice, peanuts, soybeans, and sugar (including income and price supports, disaster payments, and acreage reductions); other general commodity provisions; trade; conservation; credit; research, extension, and teaching; food stamps; and marketings. These provisions are compared with earlier legislation.

  • Provisions of the Agriculture and Food Act of 1981

    AGES-811228, January 01, 1982

    Commodity program provisions of the Agriculture and Food Act of 1981 are summarized. Price support, loan level, disaster payment, program acreage, and other provisions of the legislation are discussed for wheat, feed grains, cotton, rice, peanuts, soybeans, sugar, dairy, and wool and mohair. The following provisions are also summarized: miscellaneous; grain reserves; the national agricultural cost of production standards review board; agricultural exports and P.L. 480; food stamps; research, extension, and teaching; resource conservation; credit, rural development, and family farms; and floral research and consumer information.

  • Potential Farm-Level Effects of Eliminating Direct Payments

    EIB-103, November 16, 2012

    A number of Farm Act proposals call for ending the direct payment program. ERS analysis suggests that for the majority of farms receiving direct payments, this would not result in substantial decline in financial well-being.

  • Pesticide Use in U.S. Agriculture: 21 Selected Crops, 1960-2008

    EIB-124, May 16, 2014

    Pesticide use on 21 selected crops more than tripled from 1960 to 1981, but has since declined from 632 million pounds to 516 million pounds in 2008, partly due to more efficient active ingredients, Integrated Pest Management, and GE seeds.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2015

    AES-86, May 28, 2015

    May 2015 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $12 billion in 2015; imports to reach record high.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2014

    AES-82, May 29, 2014

    The May 2014 quarterly USDA forecasts for agricultural trade in the United States in FY 2014 are presented and discussed in this report.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: February 2015

    AES-85, February 19, 2015

    February 2015 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $11 billion in 2015; imports to reach new record high.

  • Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: December 2014

    AES-84, December 02, 2014

    December 2014 USDA forecasts for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2015 are discussed in this report. Exports to fall $9 billion in 2015; imports to reach new record.