Publications

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  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: 2000 in Review and 2001 Outlook

    LDPM-8701, October 03, 2001

    This report examines changes in the livestock industry in 2000 and provides initial assessments of 2001 based on forecasts from the August 2001 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Strong economic growth in the United States in 2000 boosted the demand for high quality cuts of red meats, thereby increasing wholesale prices of beef, pork and lamb. However, broiler and farm milk prices declined compared with 1999. Poultry output remained strong in 2000 as exports increased by 9 percent. Extreme weather conditions may dampen beef production in 2001. U.S. pork exports should increase by 18 percent in 2001.

  • The New Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the U.S. Beef Sector

    LDPM-8901, December 07, 2001

    New negotiations on trade in agriculture were recently initiated by the World Trade Organization. The negotiations focus on extending the gains to world trade achieved in the 1994 Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA), which limited the use of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, export subsidies, and the type and level of spending for domestic support programs. For the beef sector, the URAA further increased U.S. and world beef trade. While export subsidies and non-tariff barriers may continue to limit the market for U.S. beef exports, obtaining additional increases in market access in these negotiations may increase U.S. beef exports.

  • World Events Frame Outlook for Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry

    LDPM-9601, June 25, 2002

    This report examines changes in the livestock, dairy, and poultry industry in 2001 and provides initial assessments of 2002 based on forecasts from the June 2002 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. In 2001, U.S. red meat and poultry production stabilized as lower beef production was partially offset by higher pork and poultry production. In 2002, slightly larger projected growth in meat production (2 percent) and lower exports are expected to result in lower wholesale prices for cattle, hogs, and poultry. Recovery in milk per cow is expected to override declining milk cow numbers and boost 2002 milk production by 2 to 3 percent.

  • U.S.-Mexico Broiler Trade: A Bird's Eye View

    LDPM-102-01, December 06, 2002

    This study examines sanitary requirements and regulations currently governing the U.S.-Mexico broiler trade. A sensitivity analysis, using a cost-minimization mathematical programming model, detects minimal economic impact on the U.S. broiler market if Mexico is allowed to ship fresh, chilled, and frozen poultry to the United States.

  • Pork Policies in Japan

    LDPM-105-01, March 26, 2003

    This report provides a detailed description and analysis of policies used by Japan to support its hog producers. Domestic policies include regional deficiency payment programs offering compensation to farmers when market prices fall below specified targets and subsidized hazard insurance. At the border, tariffs and the gate price system are applied to imported pork. The gate price is a minimum price at which imports are allowed to enter Japan. Safeguards are used to increase the tariff and the gate price if import growth exceeds trigger levels. Japan's policies raise the price of pork to consumers and limit the ability of foreign producers to compete in the Japanese market.

  • Interstate Livestock Movements

    LPDM-10801, June 05, 2003

    This article provides a current national picture of interstate movements of cattle, hogs, and sheep. A better understanding of livestock shipping patterns helps in characterizing the livestock sectors, estimating the economic effects of major disease outbreak, and assessing marketing issues.

  • Beef and Pork Values and Price Spreads Explained

    LDPM-11801, May 10, 2004

    Livestock and meat prices vary more in the short run than costs of production, processing, and marketing. ERS research shows that month-to-month changes in livestock and meat prices are driven by dynamic adjustment. It takes time for prices to adjust, and they tend to adjust more rapidly when they are increasing than when they are decreasing. When rates depend on direction, price adjustment is called asymmetric. The slow and asymmetric adjustment of prices does not appear to work against livestock producers. This report examines these price transmission issues and also explains price spread calculations and analyzes the relationship between marketing costs and livestock prices in the long run.

  • U.S. 2003 and 2004 Livestock and Poultry Trade Influenced by Animal Disease and Trade Restrictions

    LDPM-12001, July 01, 2004

    Disease outbreaks and related trade restrictions have slowed previously expected high growth in many U.S. animal product exports, with U.S. beef exports most affected. This report discusses how animal diseases and disease-related trade restrictions have influenced trade in animal products in the past few years, with an emphasis on 2003 and forecasts for 2004. The most important animal diseases that have affected trade in animal products in recent years have been bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), Avian Influenza (AI), and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END).

  • Market Integration in the North American Hog Industries

    LDPM-12501, November 24, 2004

    About 8 percent of the hogs slaughtered in the United States in 2004 will originate in Canada-many more than 10 years ago. Canadian hogs have flowed into the United States in response to significant structural changes in the U.S. pork industry, concurrent with policy changes in Canada. This, combined with a strong U.S./Canadian dollar exchange rate, created incentives to expand hog operations in Ontario and to start production in Manitoba. In 15 years, an open border and pronounced breeding herd efficiencies helped to increase Canadian hog exports to the United States by more than eight-fold.

  • Factors Affecting U.S. Pork Consumption

    LDPM-13001, May 12, 2005

    Pork ranks third in annual U.S. meat consumption, behind beef and chicken, averaging 51 pounds per person. The Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) indicates that most pork is consumed at home. Pork consumption is highest in the Midwest, followed by the South, the Northeast, and the West. Rural consumers eat more pork than urban/suburban consumers. Pork consumption varies by race and ethnicity. Higher income consumers tend to consume less pork. Everything else remaining constant, demographic data in the CSFII suggests future declines in per capita pork consumption as the share of Hispanics and the elderly in the population rises because those two groups eat less pork than the national average. However, total U.S. pork consumption will grow because of an expansion of the U.S. population.

  • Market Integration of the North American Animal Products Complex

    LDPM-13101, May 26, 2005

    The beef, pork, and poultry industries of Mexico, Canada, and the United States have tended to become more economically integrated over the past two decades. Sanitary barriers, which are designed to protect people and animals from diseases, are some of the most significant barriers to fuller integration of meat and animal markets. In addition, diseases such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), also known as mad cow disease, have caused major disruptions to beef and cattle trade.

  • Disease-Related Trade Restrictions Shaped Animal Product Markets in 2004 and Stamp Imprints on 2005 Forecasts

    LDPM-133-01, August 03, 2005

    Disease outbreaks and related trade restrictions that affected U.S. animal product markets and exports in 2003 continued to constrain markets in 2004. U.S. cattle and beef markets were most affected. Pork, dairy, and lamb markets did not face any direct disease issues but both U.S. and international outbreaks of Avian Influenza buffeted poultry markets. Forecasts of 2005 U.S. animal-products trade reflect expected market responses given the uncertainties surrounding cattle and beef markets in the United States.

  • Dairy Policies in Japan

    LDPM-134-01, August 24, 2005

    This report provides a detailed description and analysis of Japan's policies that support its milk producers and regulate dairy markets. Domestic supply controls boost the milk price, and government subsidies for producing manufacturing milk, for environmental improvements, and for hazard insurance provide additional support to farms. Regulations about milk labeling have affected milk powder use. At the border, tariff-rate quotas offer limited opportunities to private firms within the quota amounts, and impose very high tariffs on imports of dairy products outside the quota. If Japan's policies were liberalized, prices and production in Japan would fall, but sizable milk production would remain.

  • Did the Mandatory Requirement Aid the Market? Impact of the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act

    LDPM-135-01, September 16, 2005

    This study focuses on fed cattle markets to compare the mandatory price reporting system developed by USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service in 2001 with the previous voluntary reporting system. The study also evaluates whether the mandatory system has improved the amount and quality of information available to the market. Results show that mandatory reporting has given the market additional information about prices for different kinds of sales transactions. The trend toward formula purchases has slowed since mandatory price reporting was implemented, and the volume of cattle moving under negotiated purchases has increased.

  • Factors Affecting U.S. Beef Consumption

    LDPM-135-02, October 07, 2005

    Beef is a highly consumed meat in the United States, averaging 67 pounds per person per year. Findings based on the 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) indicate that most beef was eaten at home. Annual beef consumption per person was highest in the Midwest (73 pounds), followed by the South and West (65 pounds each), and the Northeast (63 pounds). Rural consumers ate more beef (75 pounds) than did urban and suburban consumers (66 and 63 pounds). Beef consumption also varies by race and ethnicity. Blacks ate 77 pounds of beef per person per year, followed by 69 pounds by Hispanics, 65 pounds by Whites, and 62 pounds by other races. Low-income consumers tend to eat more beef than consumers in other income households.

  • An Economic Chronology of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in North America

    LDPM-14301, June 09, 2006

    The first confirmed cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States had significant effects on trade and prices of U.S. cattle and beef. However, these incidents occurred during a period of low U.S. beef supplies, near-record beef prices, and strong domestic demand for beef that was largely unshaken by the BSE announcement. Also, U.S. reliance on beef and cattle exports, roughly 10 percent of production, was not so great as to cause burdensome increases in domestic supplies. Increased regulations, however, imposed additional costs on beef production and processing sectors.

  • Dairy Backgrounder

    LDPM-14501, July 24, 2006

    Over time, shifts in consumer demands, in the location and structure of milk production, in industry concentration, in international markets, and in trade agreements have dramatically altered the U.S. dairy industry and changed the context for dairy policies and the sector as a whole. In the future, the U.S. dairy industry is likely to become more fully integrated with international markets. At the same time, dairy products such as fluid milk, butter, and cheese are likely to continue to be increasingly used as ingredients for restaurants and in processed foods while still being sold in their traditional forms.

  • Animal Products Markets in 2005 and Forecasts for 2006

    LDPM-14601, September 08, 2006

    Uncertainty continues to shape the forecasts for animal products markets in 2006. Potential and actual animal disease outbreaks, consumer sensitivities, volatile exchange rates, and growing competition from producers in other countries cloud U.S. trade prospects for major meats. Loss of U.S. trade market share, partly caused by disease outbreaks and related trade restrictions that have affected animal product exports since 2003, compounds the problem. The outlook for U.S. meat, poultry, and dairy markets in 2006 depends on how well domestic production adjusts to changes in input costs, the effect of exchange rates on trade, the continuing effects of disease and trade restrictions on exports, and the increasing competitiveness of emerging animal products exporters.

  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: December 2006

    LDPM-15001, December 27, 2006

    Organic poultry and egg markets in the United States are expanding rapidly. Statistics for the sector, especially the number of organic broilers, also signal expanding domestic supply. This report examines trends in markets, animal numbers, and prices for organic poultry and eggs. Price comparisons between organic and conventional show significant organic price premiums for both broilers and eggs.

  • Retail and Consumer Aspects of the Organic Milk Market

    LDPM-155-01, May 22, 2007

    Consumer interest in organic milk has burgeoned, resulting in rapid growth in retail sales of organic milk. New analysis of scanner data from 2004 finds that most purchasers of organic milk are White, high income, and well educated. The data indicate that organic milk purchased carries the USDA organic seal about 60 percent of the time, most organic milk is sold in supermarkets, organic price premiums are large and vary by region, and most organic milk is branded.