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  • FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT. GFA-9

    GFA-9, November 24, 1997

    The world's resources are adequate to produce enough food for its population for at least the next few decades. The available food, however, is not distributed evenly. In 66 low-income countries, food availability (production plus commercial imports) is projected to increase more slowly than the population growth during the next decade, leading to a decline in per capita consumption. To stabilize consumption at recently achieved levels (average of 1994-96), the projected additional food required is 8.5 million tons in 1997, increasing to 18 million tons by 2007. Many low-income countries are also unable to meet minimum nutritional requirements of their people, and this nutritional gap--the difference between food availability and nutritional requirement--is projected to grow from 15 million tons in 1997 to 24 million tons by 2007. This report projects food availability for 66 countries during the next decade. Projections are based on long-term trends and policies that are currently in place. The results are also used to project consumption by income group to analyze the severity of nutritional problems within the countries. The report includes an overview section which provides a global and regional outlook of food security. Four research papers discuss topics related to food security.

  • FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT. GFA-10

    GFA-10, December 01, 1998

    Broad trends in food production and prices indicate a decline in the share of people who do not have access to adequate food levels. However, the overall figures mask variation in food security among regions, countries, and income groups within countries. In 1998, per capita food consumption in 66 low-income countries is projected to fall short of 1996-98 levels ("status quo") by nearly 11 million tons, up from 8.5 million tons estimated for 1997. The gap between actual consumption and minimum nutritional requirements is expected to be even larger at 17.6 million tons. During the next decade, food gaps with respect to the status quo and nutritional targets are expected to widen further. Food consumption is projected to fall short of the nutritional requirement in 35 countries, while 47 countries are expected to face a decline in per capita consumption in 2008. The 67 countries in the study either have been or may become food aid recipients. The projections, however, exclude the availability of food aid. Therefore, depending upon future food aid availability, some or all of the projected food gaps can be eliminated.

  • FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT, GFA-11

    GFA-11, December 07, 1999

    Broad trends in food production and prices indicate a decline in the share of people who do not have access to adequate food levels. However, the overall figures mask variation in food security among regions, countries, and income groups within countries. In 1999, per capita food consumption in 67 low-income countries is projected to fall short of 1996-98 levels ("status quo") by nearly 13 million tons, about 2 million tons more than estimated for 1998. Around 400,000 tons of the increase arose from adding a new country, North Korea, to the analysis this year. The gap between actual consumption and minimum nutritional requirements is expected to be even larger at 15 million tons. During the next decade, food gaps with respect to the status quo and nutritional targets are expected to widen further. Food consumption is projected to fall short of the nutritional requirement in 30 countries, while 45 countries are expected to face a decline in per capita consumption in 2009. The 67 countries in the study either have been or may become food aid recipients. The projections, however, exclude the availability of food aid. Therefore, depending upon future food aid availability, some or all of the projected food gaps can be eliminated.

  • Food Security Assessment GFA12

    GFA-12, February 26, 2001

    USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) projects that average per capita food consumption for 67 low-income countries will increase in the next decade. ERS also projects that the number of people failing to meet their nutritional requirements will decline from 774 million in 2000 to 694 million in 2010, providing an improved outlook for global food security. But the gains are not uniform across countries and in many food insecurity will probably intensify. Sub-Saharan Africa, as the most vulnerable region, accounts for only 24 percent of the population of these 67 countries, but it is projected to account for 63 percent of these hungry people in 2010. HIV/AIDS is expected to reduce the region's agricultural productivity, and constraints in financial resources will limit commercial imports, thus leading to declining per capita consumption.

  • Food Security Assessment GFA13

    GFA-13, April 01, 2002

    The Food Security Assessment report provides food gap and hunger projections for 67 potentially food insecure countries in North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and NIS.

  • Food Security Assessment GFA14

    GFA-14, February 03, 2003

    This report projects food gaps in 70 low-income developing countries and presents findings for North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union.

  • Food Security Assessment, GFA-15

    GFA-15, May 20, 2004

    Just over 900 million people in the 70 low-income countries studied in this report are estimated to have consumed less than the recommended nutritional requirements in 2003. This marks a decline from more than 1 billion in 2002. Although food security is expected to improve in all regions over the coming decade, this improvement will vary. Food security is projected to improve most significantly in Asia, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean. Although some improvement is also expected in Sub-Saharan Africa, the deep poverty at the root of hunger problems in the lower income population will remain unchanged. Food aid has been and continues to be an important tool used by the international community to fight hunger in low-income countries, and the United States is the dominant food donor country. However, the effectiveness of food aid could be improved by increased coordination between donor groups, more transparent eligibility criteria, and fewer fluctuations in year-to-year aid levels.

  • Food Security Assessment, GFA 16

    GFA-16, April 28, 2005

    Just over 1 billion people in the 70 low-income countries studied in this report are estimated to have consumed less than the recommended nutritional requirements in 2004. This marks an increase from more than 830 million in 2003. Over the coming decade, food security is projected to improve most significantly in Asia, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean. The situation is expected to deteriorate in Sub-Saharan Africa, where deep poverty, political unrest, and the effects of HIV/AIDS hinder prospects for improvement.

  • Food Security Assessment 2005, GFA 17

    GFA-17, May 31, 2006

    In 2005, 777 million people were food insecure in 70 lower income countries studied in this report. On average, there has been a slight decline in the number of hungry people from 688 million in 1992-94 to 639 million in 2002-04. Both Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States experienced a 30-percent drop in the number of hungry people. The number in Latin America and the Caribbean has varied slightly over time, but there has been no discernible trend across the region as a whole. Despite strong growth in food production, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where the number of hungry people has risen-over 19 percent-during the last decade.

  • Food Security Assessment, 2006

    GFA-18, June 28, 2007

    The number of hungry people in the 70 lower income countries covered in this report rose between 2005 and 2006, from 804 million to 849 million. However, the food distribution gap-an indicator of food access-declined, which means that, although more people are vulnerable to food insecurity, the intensity was less in 2006 than in 2005. By 2016, the number of hungry people is projected to decline in all regions, except Sub-Saharan Africa. The average nutrition gap, the indicator of food availability, was 13.5 million tons (grain equivalent) in 2006 and is expected to increase to 14 million tons by 2016. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 85 percent of this gap, the low-income countries of Asia for only 14 percent, and the low-income countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the remaining 1 percent. The average nutrition gap was much smaller than the distribution gap, which takes into account unequal purchasing power within countries. The distribution gap was an estimated 27 million tons in 2006 for all 70 countries, decreasing to close to 26 million tons by 2016.

  • Food Security Assessment, 2007

    GFA-19, July 03, 2008

    The number of food insecure people in the 70 lower income countries covered in this report rose between 2006 and 2007, from 849 million to 982 million. Food insecure people are those consuming less than the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per day. The food security situation of these countries is projected to deteriorate over the next decade. The distribution gap-an indicator of food access-is projected to rise from 44 million tons in 2007 to more than 57 million tons in 2017. This is more than seven times the amount of food aid received by these countries in 2006. Sub-Saharan Africa, already the most vulnerable region with the lowest calorie intake levels, will suffer the greatest deterioration in food security.

  • Food Security Assessment, 2008-09

    GFA-20, June 30, 2009

    Food security in 70 developing countries is projected to deteriorate over the next decade, according to USDA's Economic Research Service. After rising nearly 11 percent from 2007 to 2008, the number of food-insecure people in the developing countries analyzed by ERS researchers is estimated to rise to 833 million in 2009, an almost 2-percent rise from 2008 to 2009. Despite a decline in food prices in late 2008, deteriorating purchasing power and food security are expected in 2009 because of the growing financial deficits and higher inflation that have occurred in recent years. Food-insecure people are defined as those consuming less than the nutritional target of 2,100 calories per day per person.

  • Food Security Assessment, 2010-20

    GFA-21, July 08, 2010

    Food security in 70 developing countries is estimated to have improved between 2009 and 2010, due in part to economic recovery in many of these countries. Over the next decade, the overall number of food-insecure people is projected to decline slightly.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2010 Update: Improved Production Mitigated Impact of Higher Food Commodity Prices

    GFA-21-01, May 25, 2011

    Rising global food commodity prices have again focused attention on agriculture and food security. This report is an update to the July 2010 report, Food Security Assessment, 2010-20; it reviews the impact of high global food commodity prices on food security in 2010 in 70 lower income countries using actual 2010 price and food production information.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2011-21

    GFA-22, July 15, 2011

    ERS assesses the food security situation in 77 developing countries, including estimates for 2011 and projections for the next decade. The report is the latest in an annual series.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2012-22

    GFA-23, July 09, 2012

    ERS assesses food security in 76 developing countries, including estimates for 2012 and projections for the next decade - latest report in an annual series. Key determinants of food security: food production and import capacity.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2013-2023

    GFA-24, June 27, 2013

    The share of the population that is food insecure in 76 low- and middle-income countries is expected to decline from 21 percent in 2012 to 20 percent in 2013. Key determinants of food security are food production and import capacity.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2014-24

    GFA-25, June 30, 2014

    The food-insecure population of 76 low- and middle-income countries is projected to fall 9 percent to 490 million in 2014. The food-insecure share of the population is projected to rise from 13.9 percent in 2014 to 14.6 percent in 2024.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2015-25

    GFA-26, June 29, 2015

    The number of food-insecure people in the 76 low- and middle-income countries in this report is projected to fall 9 percent from 2014, to 475 million in 2015. But over the longer term the number and population share are projected to rise.

  • International Food Security Assessment, 2016-26

    GFA-27, June 30, 2016

    The share of food-insecure people in the 76 low- and middle-income countries included in this report is projected to fall from 17 percent in 2016 to 6 percent in 2026. The number of food-insecure people is projected to fall by 59 percent.